Why Penrith can't win the premiership, but Brisbane still have a shot

The Age

3 days ago

Penrith will basically start their finals campaign in mid-August. I can't see them making the top four even though they're one competition point behind the Broncos. Their run from round 24 to 26, where they face Melbourne, Canberra and Canterbury, is just too tough. Then they'll likely be playing sudden death semi-finals as well.
The toll of their premiership-winning run has shown at times this year with Nathan Cleary's groin injury and Brian To'o's different soft tissue issues.
And then you think about Isaah Yeo, he's played basically every minute of more than 100 games in the past four years alone. It has to take a toll on even the greatest players.
For mine, given that tough run comes against in-form teams after another gruelling Origin series, it's just too much for Penrith.
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I think the top three – Raiders, Bulldogs and Storm – stays the same, and I think the Roosters' roll on will have them finishing in the top eight as well. But as for the top four, I can't see the Warriors hanging on or Penrith sneaking in there. That spot is Brisbane's for the taking.
Singing and kicking in the rain
Brisbane have won three on the trot and Friday's clash with Canterbury where neither side has their Origin players is their chance to build some real momentum.
Sydney's cyclonic rain is meant to ease up by kick-off, but it will still be a greasy, slippery, heavy track at Accor Stadium. And wet weather footy always narrows the margin between two sides.
Wet weather footy will emphasise the basics: you get out of dummy half, you kick long, you kick often, you don't give away penalties and you defend strongly.
Brisbane's advantage here is Adam Reynolds. The little master kicked Canterbury out of the game the last time these two teams played in the wet and his experience and control in these conditions is something the Bulldogs just can't match.
Joey's tip: Broncos by four
First try-scorer: Selwyn Cobbo
Man of the match: Adam Reynolds
Billy's brave calls and the Blues' big advantage
Six more sleeps until a State of Origin decider with all on the line in front of a sold-out, 80,000-strong crowd. Come 8pm next Wednesday night, nothing else in the world will matter.
Billy Slater's gone with a couple of really brave, really surprising selections for Queensland.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow's selection at fullback over Reece Walsh took me aback, though the Hammer's a great fullback in his own right. He's got that blinding speed and beautiful balance when he runs, as we saw with his four tries against South Sydney last weekend.
Any half chances, he can turn them into tries and his support play is exceptional. His backing up and constant presence around the ruck is his advantage over Walsh.
But Reece has the swagger and X-factor that really comes to the fore on the big stage, and he offers a ball-playing option that Tabuai-Fidow can't match. The one-two punch Walsh and Cameron Munster could have offered against a tired Blues defence scared me.
The early advantage I see for NSW is across the back three and the all-important yardage game coming out of trouble. There's no real comparison between Dylan Edwards, Brian To'o and Zac Lomax – three of the best back-field runners in the NRL – and Queensland's one, two and five.
Tabuai-Fidow isn't known for his yardage game and Xavier Coates isn't the strongest runner from dummy half either. Valentine Holmes will be tested on that front as well.
The other two big selection shocks – Gehamat Shibasaki and Josh Papalii coming out of retirement –mean Slater won't die wondering, will he?
Shibasaki's selection at centre is one of the biggest bolters I can remember in Origin, and he has been in great form for Brisbane as a big and powerful ball-running option. He and Walsh have combined really well for the Broncos down their left edge but, of course, Walsh isn't there with him next Wednesday night.
Without the ball though, Shibasaki's defensive reads can get him into trouble. I expect NSW and Stephen Crichton to really put him under the microscope.
Papalii's return at the age of 33 is a smart call in my book. Just as giving Munster the captaincy proved a masterstroke and brought the best out of the Maroons No.6, there's a bit of Origin mythology about Big Papa coming back. Brad Fitter did it for NSW in 2004, and Alfie Langer, of course, did it for Queensland in 2001.