Where Do We Begin? War, Losses, and Reconstruction in Sudan** (part 1)
Where Do We Begin? War, Losses, and Reconstruction in Sudan** (part 1)
Omer Sidahmed
April 2025
Introduction
Since the outbreak of war in Sudan in April 2023, now entering its third year, Sudan has been enduring a major humanitarian and economic tragedy. As fighting continues and its reach expands, the lives of millions have turned into a genuine catastrophe. Amidst this dark situation, statements and initiatives discussing reconstruction have emerged, even though the war has not ceased.
Among these are circulated recordings about an alleged agreement between the Sudanese military leadership and some Egyptian parties, where an Egyptian spokesperson mentioned that the cost of reconstruction could exceed one hundred billion dollars, with Egyptian companies undertaking projects in exchange for Sudanese gold.
Discussing reconstruction before the war definitively stops seems absurd. There is no peace, stability, or real building while the sound of gunfire drowns out the voice of life. Moreover, the promoted Egyptian companies lack the technical expertise required to manage projects of this scale [1].
Economic and Humanitarian Losses: Frightening Figures
The Agricultural Sector: The Broken Backbone
Agriculture used to provide livelihoods for about 70% of the population [2]. With the continuation of the war, more than 50% of agricultural lands have become out of production, especially in the Gezira, Sennar, White Nile, Kordofan, and Darfur regions [3]. The suspension of the Gezira Scheme, the most important irrigated agricultural project in Africa, has crippled the production of cotton, peanuts, and wheat. Direct losses to the agricultural sector are estimated to exceed 20 billion dollars [4].
The Industrial Sector: Total Collapse
Industrial activity was previously concentrated in Khartoum and several major cities. With escalating military operations, over 60% of industrial facilities have been fully or partially destroyed [5]. Estimated financial losses in the industrial sector reach about 70 billion dollars. The breakdown of supply chains and migration of skilled industrial workforce have aggravated unemployment and deepened the economic collapse [6].
The Health Sector: A System in Collapse
Sudan has witnessed an almost total collapse of its healthcare system, with more than 70% of hospitals and health centers either shutting down or being destroyed [7]. Infectious diseases such as cholera, malaria, and dengue fever have spread extensively [8]. According to the World Health Organization [9], Sudan faces one of the worst health catastrophes in its recent history, with material losses in the sector exceeding 13 billion dollars.
Epidemic Outbreaks: A Parallel Health Disaster
The health system collapse led to widespread outbreaks of cholera, malaria, and dengue fever [9]. The lack of health monitoring, collapse of water and sanitation infrastructure, and halted vaccination campaigns contributed to severe epidemic flare-ups, doubling death rates especially among children and the elderly.
The Education Sector: A Crime Against the Future
Over 18 million children and youth have lost their educational opportunities due to the ongoing war [10]. Thousands of schools have been destroyed or converted into displaced persons' camps, paralyzing education throughout much of Sudan, risking the loss of an entire generation.
The Banking Sector: A Fatal Blow
About 70% of major bank headquarters and branches were concentrated in Khartoum before the war, most of which have been destroyed or looted [11]. This has led to paralysis of the banking system, the spread of parallel informal economy, and collapse of the Sudanese pound.
The Export Sector: Unstoppable Bleeding
Agricultural and livestock exports dropped by more than 80% [12]. Meanwhile, gold and crop smuggling through Sudanese ports has increased, allegedly with the complicity of some military leaders [13].
Poverty and Famine: Another Face of Destruction
Over 70% of the population lives below the poverty line [14]. Approximately 17.7 million people face acute food insecurity [15], with silent famine spreading across several regions and insufficient humanitarian aid response.
The Suffering of Displaced Persons and Refugees
The conflict has internally displaced over 10 million Sudanese [16], living in camps lacking basic living conditions. About 2 million refugees have fled to neighboring countries such as Egypt, Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, facing harsh conditions and lack of basic services.
Paid Media: Manufacturing Falsehoods and Misleading the Public
Alongside military destruction, media aligned with the former regime have been highly active through heavily funded channels that falsify facts, fuel ethnic hatred, and smear peaceful civil society movements [17].
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From 'Development Critique' to 'War Critique' A Chatham House report (March 2025) found that gold has become direct fuel for the war, with 70–80% of production smuggled, primarily to the UAE, and used to purchase arms and pay fighters. The state is absent, and its most valuable resource is financing conflict, not development. Repackaged Neoliberal Failure The World Bank's proposed reforms recycle previous neoliberal prescriptions — privatization, subsidy cuts, price liberalization — which have failed before. These policies did not deliver social justice; they deepened inequality and dependence. Even after the December Revolution, these policies persisted under the grip of the former regime's security apparatus. Social support systems were dismantled with no viable alternatives, while security forces monopolized national resources. Justice and Reconciliation: Beyond Cosmetic Fixes Justice can't be legislated; it requires dismantling impunity and marginalization systems. Reconciliation isn't slogans — it's accountability, militia disarmament, and reintegration. Displaced communities won't return without guarantees, compensation, land restitution, and restored services. Lessons from South Africa and Rwanda In South Africa, reconciliation wasn't free — it was tied to truth-telling and confession of crimes. In Rwanda, Gacaca community courts combined justice with reconciliation. The lesson: no peace without genuine transitional justice that honors victims and confronts atrocities. No Recovery Without Ending the War All recommendations in the report are moot unless the war ends immediately. There can be no economic reform, return of displaced people, or reconstruction amid continued bombing and militia rule. Ending the war is not optional — it is the first and absolute priority. Conclusion: From Ruin to Hope Sudan's recovery is impossible without immediate cessation of hostilities and a new political path toward civil governance and inclusive justice. 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Agriculture can be the cornerstone — but not the foundation alone. True recovery requires comprehensive political, institutional, and economic reform to move Sudan from extraction to production, from looting to justice, and from exclusion to inclusive governance. June 2025
