
Pakistan holds key rate at 11% as geopolitical tensions stoke inflation risks
The State Bank of Pakistan briefly paused its easing cycle in March after cutting rates by 10 per centage points from a record high of 22 per cent in June 2024. The SBP announced another 100-basis-point cut in May, bringing the key rate to 11 per cent.
Eleven out of 14 analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast the SBP would hold the rate steady, citing inflationary risks from Israel's recent military strikes on Iran and their impact on global commodity markets.
The bank's Monetary Policy Committee said in a statement announcing the decision that it expected some near-term volatility in inflation and for it to gradually to edge up and stabilise in the 5-7 per cent target range.
"This outlook, however, remains subject to multiple risks emanating from potential supply-chain disruptions from regional
geopolitical conflicts, volatility in oil and other commodity prices, and the timing and magnitude of domestic
energy price adjustments," the MPC said.
Headline inflation rose to 3.5 per cent in May, exceeding the finance ministry's projection of up to 2 per cent. The central bank expects average inflation to range between 5.5 per cent and 7.5 per cent for the current fiscal year, which ends this month.
"The decision to hold rates was not surprising given the uncertain geopolitical outlook with oil prices spiking around 15 per cent," said Mustafa Pasha, Executive Director at Karachi-based Lakson Investments.
"Additionally, it gives the SBP time to assess the impact of the budget and upcoming gas/electricity tariff revisions on inflation and the external account."
The decision also comes on the heels of Pakistan's contractionary budget, in which it cut total spending by 7 per cent and set a GDP target of 4.2 per cent for fiscal year 2025-26.
The government said the $350 billion economy is stabilising under a $7 billion IMF programme, though analysts remain wary of external and fiscal pressures.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


CNA
19 minutes ago
- CNA
Malaysia's economy projected to grow 4% to 4.8% this year, central bank says
KUALA LUMPUR :Malaysia's economy is projected to expand by 4 per cent to 4.8 per cent in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 4.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent, its central bank said on Monday, warning that trade and tariff uncertainties could affect global growth. Headline inflation is expected to average between 1.5 per cent and 2.3 per cent this year, Bank Negara Malaysia said in a statement. The central bank said the global economic growth outlook was affected by shifting trade policies and uncertainties surrounding tariffs. It said Malaysia's "updated growth projections account for various tariff scenarios, ranging from a continued elevation of tariffs to more favourable trade negotiation outcomes." Although Malaysia's economy remains on a "strong footing", the central bank said its growth projection remains subject to uncertainties surrounding the global economy. Malaysia is facing a 25 per cent tariff on its exports to the United States unless it can reach a deal with Washington by August 1. Malaysia's trade minister said several sticking points remained in the talks with the United States, particularly on non-trade barriers, but discussions were progressing well and were on track to meet the August deadline.

Straits Times
2 hours ago
- Straits Times
China opposes Czech president's visit to Dalai Lama
Find out what's new on ST website and app. FILE PHOTO: Tibetan spiritual leader, the 14th Dalai Lama, is served food on his 90th birthday celebration at the Tsuglagkhang, also known as the Dalai Lama Temple complex, in the northern town of Dharamshala, India, July 6, 2025. REUTERS/Anushree Fadnavis/File Photo HONG KONG - China said it "resolutely opposed" Czech President Petr Pavel's meeting in India with Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, and urged the Czech side to "abide by its one-China political commitment" and maintain healthy and stable relations. China's embassy in the Czech Republic posted the notice late on Sunday and said China firmly opposes any form of contact between officials of any country and the Dalai "clique". Pavel met with the Dalai Lama on July 27, it said. "China urges the Czech side to abide by its one-China political commitment, take immediate and effective measures to eliminate the bad influence," the statement said. It added that the Czech side should stop sending "any wrong signals to 'Tibetan independence' separatist forces." The Dalai Lama has been living in exile in India since 1959 following a failed uprising against Chinese rule in Tibet, and Indian foreign relations experts say his presence gives New Delhi leverage against China. India is also home to about 70,000 Tibetans and a Tibetan government-in-exile. REUTERS Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore Not feasible for S'pore to avoid net‑zero; all options to cut energy emissions on table: Tan See Leng Singapore With regional interest in nuclear energy rising, S'pore must build capabilities too: Tan See Leng Singapore New Mandai North Crematorium, ash-scattering garden to open on Aug 15 Singapore Tanjong Katong Road sinkhole did not happen overnight: Experts Singapore Sewage shaft failure linked to sinkhole; PUB calling safety time-out on similar works islandwide Singapore Science Journals: Lessons from weird fish sold in Singapore's wet markets World US and EU clinch deal with broad 15% tariffs on EU goods to avert trade war Asia Displaced villagers at Thai-Cambodian border hope to go home as leaders set to meet for talks

Straits Times
6 hours ago
- Straits Times
Yemen's Houthis threaten to target ships linked to firms dealing with Israeli ports
Yemen's Houthis said on Sunday they would target any ships belonging to companies that do business with Israeli ports, regardless of their nationalities, as part of what they called the fourth phase of their military operations against Israel. In a televised statement, the Houthis' military spokesperson warned that ships would be attacked if companies ignored their warnings, regardless of their destination. "The Yemeni Armed Forces call on all countries, if they want to avoid this escalation, to pressure the enemy to halt its aggression and lift the blockade on the Gaza Strip," he added. Since Israel's war in Gaza began in October 2023, the Iran-aligned Houthis have been attacking ships they deem as bound or linked to Israel in what they say are acts of solidarity with Palestinians. In May, the U.S. announced a surprise deal with the Houthis where it agreed to stop a bombing campaign against them in return for an end to shipping attacks, though the Houthis said the deal did not include sparing Israel. REUTERS