Thailand's most divisive family may have no more moves left

Business Times

2 days ago

ONE man and his family have dominated Thailand's politics since the millennium. Billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra and his political dynasty have survived coups, corruption charges and constitutional court cases. This latest crisis may be harder to recover from.
On Tuesday (Jul 1), Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin's youngest daughter, was temporarily suspended from office until the court rules on a petition seeking her ouster for alleged ethical violations, over the handling of a long-running border dispute with neighbour Cambodia.
This adds another blow to the family's fortunes. Their name evokes strong feelings among Thailand's 70 million people, ranging from loyalty to hatred. How they manage this episode will determine whether the clan remains a significant player in South-east Asia's second-largest economy.
The immediate source of the latest public anger is a leaked Jun 15 phone call between 38-year-old Paetongtarn and former Cambodian leader Hun Sen over which government controls certain areas of their shared border. In the audio, she appeared to criticise a powerful Thai army commander, considered out of bounds in a nation where the military has significant clout. It prompted fury among nationalists. Despite an apology, demonstrators have called for her to step down and accused her of selling out the country.
The ire reflects the antipathy many feel towards Thaksin, whose struggle with the traditional elites over more than two decades has repeatedly thrown Thailand into chaos. A one-time policeman who made a fortune in IT and telecoms, he was viewed by them as a brash upstart when he entered politics in the 1990s.
By the time he was ousted from the premiership in 2006, politics in Thailand were never really the same. In subsequent years, I covered demonstrations by royalist 'Yellow Shirts' who at times clashed with pro-Thaksin 'Red Shirts.' They wanted the Shinawatras out for good, claiming they were corrupt and abused their power – allegations the family has denied.
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Fast-forward two decades and the Shinawatras are still here and this most recent chapter in the clan's saga is eroding investor confidence again. Prospects were already looking weak due to US President Donald Trump's widespread tariffs, a fall-off in visitors for the important tourism industry since February, and limited fiscal space for countermeasures. Bloomberg Economics expects growth to slow to about 1.6 per cent this year, down from an expansion of 2.5 per cent in 2024.
Paetongtarn is viewed as a proxy for her father, much like her aunt, Yingluck, prime minister from 2011 until a court ruling forced her out of office in 2014. Her government exists only because of an unlikely alliance between Thaksin and his former foes in the prominent royalist-military establishment, notes Susannah Patton of the Sydney-based think tank Lowy Institute.
The Shinawatra dynasty owes its longevity to to Thaksin's strategic politicking and allure. Loved by the working class because of his populist policies, he's a feted but polarising figure. In a recent survey, the former media tycoon was voted the most influential person in Thai politics. He first became prime minister in 2001; his second term was cut short by a military coup in 2006.
In 2023, Thaksin came home after more than a decade of self-imposed exile. His return helped broker a marriage of convenience between his Pheu Thai Party and former rivals, aimed at blocking the progressive Move Forward Party from power despite its popularity. The youth-oriented party campaigned against military rule and advocated for changes to a law forbidding criticism of the monarchy.
Paetongtarn appeared to renew her family's political fortunes when she became prime minister last August, after her predecessor was ousted by a court over ethics violations.
But that power is now again at risk. An opinion poll conducted in June by the National Institute of Development Administration showed that an overwhelming majority of Thais are dissatisfied with the young leader and her government's performance. The Constitutional Court's decision will only increase pressure on a family that has long called the shots.
Concerns are rising the military could stage another coup – not unthinkable, given the nation's history. Thailand is the only middle or high-middle income country that continues to have regular coups, the Council on Foreign Relations notes. It had 22 attempts since the end of the absolute monarchy in the 1930s; 13 of those were successful.
For all the division they represent, the Shinawatras continue to be integral to Thailand's story – and will be as long as the 75-year-old patriarch can still make a deal. Any threat to their power is a catalyst for uncertainty. BLOOMBERG