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Mint
2 hours ago
- Mint
Vijay L Bhambwani's Ticker: It's time for bulls to make their presence felt
Ticker is a weekly newsletter by Vijay L Bhambwani. Subscribe to Mint's newsletters to get them directly in your email inbox. Dear Reader, Last week, I wrote about the daunting prospect of overhead supply (selling by bulls trapped at higher levels) weighing on bulls. That hypothesis was validated by the markets as indices slipped in the latter half of the week. Triggers for the overhead supply remain unchanged. Proposed changes in the US and UK, which may reduce the flow of money to pension funds, are worrying bulls. It should be remembered that pension funds manage huge sums as long-term assets under management (AUM), which makes them the biggest institutional investors in equity markets. If AUMs fall in the pension fund industry, support to equity markets may be impacted as well. The delay in tying up trade deals and fears of slowing consumer spending worldwide are also weighing on sentiments. This is an expiry week, and therefore, traders are likely to be preoccupied with rolling over or squaring up (closing) their trades. Volatility is usually higher in expiry weeks. The positive trigger that emerged is that traded volumes perked up in the derivatives segment. This was partly due to Jane Street being allowed to resume operations in India. Aggressive follow-up buying will be crucial to revive sentiments. Do note the Nifty-50 has slipped for four weeks in a row, and bulls are running out of time. If they are to get a grip on sentiments, they must make their presence felt before the 24,800 support I have been mentioning for a fortnight is violated. In terms of sectoral action, public sector undertakings will continue to attract traders due to the emotional and financial stakes being relatively high in these stocks. Banking stocks within the PSU space will be particularly volatile. As we approach the Reserve Bank of India's announcement on interest rates on 7 August, traders are likely to ramp up their exposure on these stocks. Larger two-way moves are expected on these stocks. Metal prices may witness routine month-end short-covering, which can perk up metal and mining stock prices this week. Upsides will remain capped, however. Oil and gas-related stocks will also witness hectic trades, as energy prices are slipping on global commodity exchanges. Bullion remains bullish for the patient long-term investor, who is willing to look past calendar 2025. Oil and gas prices are likely to stay subdued, and rallies, if any, are likely to run into selling pressure. I maintain my long-standing view that energy markets are well-supplied and shortages exist only in market narratives. I recommend my readers traders light with tail risk (hacienda) hedges in place to avoid any shocks to capital. Being an expiry week makes it even more pressing to prioritize capital preservation over trading profits. A tutorial video on hacienda hedges is here - Rear View Mirror Let us assess what happened last week so we can guesstimate what to expect in the coming week. The fall was led by the broad-based Nifty, whereas the Bank Nifty logged gains. Being heavily weighted in the Nifty index, banking stocks cushioned the declines in the Nifty which, otherwise, may have slipped significantly. A weak dollar aided sentiments in emerging markets including India. Safe-haven buying eased in bullion, which otherwise remained firm. Oil and gas fell sharply as demand growth was feared to contract in the near future. The rupee eased versus a weakening dollar, which underscores the nervousness in the forex peg. Indian forex reserves slipped marginally, which weighed on sentiments. The Indian 10-year sovereign bond yields rose which dragged banking stocks since banks are the biggest investors in bonds. NSE market capitalization slipped 1.54%, which indicates broad-based selling. Market wide position limits (MWPL) rose routinely ahead of the expiry. US headline indices rose, providing tailwinds to our markets, which could have otherwise slipped deeper. Retail Risk Appetite – I use a simple yet highly accurate yardstick for measuring the conviction levels of retail traders – where are they deploying money. I measure what percentage of the turnover was contributed by the lower and higher risk instruments. If they trade more of futures which require sizable capital, their risk appetite is higher. Within the futures space, index futures are less volatile compared to stock futures. A higher footprint in stock futures shows higher aggression levels. Ditto for stock and index options. Last week, this is what their footprint looked like (the numbers are average of all trading days of the week) – Turnover contribution in the higher-risk, capital-intensive futures segment was marginally higher. Much of it can be attributed to the rollover of trades from the July to August series. This results in dual turnover being logged, which is routine. In the relatively safer options segment, turnover rose in the stock options segment which is marginally more riskier than index options. Some of it can be rollover trades from July to August series. Overall. risk appetite remained subdued. Matryoshka Analysis Let us peel layer after layer of statistical data to arrive at the core message of the first chart I share is the NSE advance-decline ratio. After the price itself, this indicator is the fastest (leading) indicator of which way the winds are blowing. This simple yet accurate indicator computes the ratio of the number of rising stocks compared to falling stocks. As long as gaining stocks outnumber the losers, bulls are dominant. This metric is a gauge of the risk appetite of 'one marshmallow' traders. These are pure intra-day traders. The Nifty clocked smaller losses last week, but the advance-decline ratio slipped from 1.11 in the prior week to 0.67 last week. That means there were 67 gaining stocks for every 100 losing stocks. Intra-day buying conviction was lower. This ratio must stay above 1.0 sustainably all week for bulls to regain their lost initiative. A tutorial video on the marshmallow theory in trading is here - The second chart I share is the market wide position limits (MWPL). This measures the amount of exposure utilized by traders in the derivatives (F&O) space as a component of the total exposure allowed by the regulator. This metric is a gauge of the risk appetite of 'two marshmallow' traders. These are deep-pocketed, high-conviction traders who roll over their trades to the next session/s. The MWPL rose routinely ahead of the expiry week, but the peak was lower than the prior month's peak. This week being an expiry one, this reading can only fall this week. Swing traders are showing signs of hesitation. If markets rally strongly in the August derivatives series, bulls must ramp up their exposure levels to make their presence felt. Post-expiry routine decline should be watched keenly. If the low is higher than the 26.20 level of last month, it would imply some optimism.A dedicated tutorial video on how to interpret MWPL data in more ways than one is available here - The third chart I share is my in-house indicator 'impetus.' It measures the force in any price move. Last week, both indices fell with falling impetus readings. That tells us the fall was more of a gradual slide triggered by poor buying support rather than aggressive selling. Ideally, the price and impetus readings should rise in tandem to confirm a sustainable upthrust. The final chart I share is my in-house indicator 'LWTD.' It computes lift, weight, thrust and drag encountered by any security. These are four forces that any powered aircraft faces during flight; so, applying it to traded securities helps a trader estimate prevalent sentiments. Last week, the Nifty logged smaller declines, but the LWTD reading fell sharply to its lowest after the week ended 18 April, 2025. That implies lower fresh buying support for the Nifty this week. While short-covering can occur, it can cushion declines. For a fresh rally, aggressive follow-up buying will be required. A tutorial video on interpreting the LWTD indicator is here - Nifty's Verdict Last week, we saw a red candle on the weekly chart. This is the fourth bearish candle in a row. It was an inverted hammer candle. That indicates an abortive attempt by bulls as they tried to push prices higher but failed, and the index slid back into negative territory. The price remains above the 25-week average, which is a proxy for the six-month holding cost of an average retail investor. The medium-term outlook remains positive for now, as long as the price stays above this average. Last week, I advocated watching the 24,800 level, which bulls needed to defend in case of a decline. Note how the weekly low was 24,806. This threshold remains as the immediate support area to watch out for. The longer the index stays below this threshold, the more difficulty bulls may encounter on the upside. That is because overhead supply (selling from bulls trapped at higher levels) can limit rallies in the near term. On the flipside, the nearest resistance is at the 25,250 level, which must be overcome if the Nifty is to have a reasonable chance to rally. Your Call to Action – watch the 24,800 level as a near-term support. Only a break-out above the 25,250 level raises the possibility of a short-term rally. Last week, I estimated ranges between 57,500 – 55,050 and 25,525 – 24,400 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty respectively. Both indices traded within their specified resistance levels. This week, I estimate ranges between 57,725 – 55,325 and 25,375 – 24,300 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty respectively. Trade light with strict stop losses. Avoid trading counters with spreads wider than eight ticks. Have a profitable week. Vijay L. Bhambwani Vijay is the CEO a proprietary trading firm. He tweets at @vijaybhambwani
Indian Express
4 hours ago
- Indian Express
Stocks to Watch on Monday, July 28: TCS, SAIL, BEML, IDFC First Bank and more
Stocks to Watch: Shares of several companies will remain in focus on Monday (July 28) including TCS, Tata Chemicals, BEML, SAIL, IDFC First Bank, etc. On Friday, stock markets declined with the Sensex tumbling 721 points due to heavy selling in financial, IT and oil & gas shares amid persistent foreign fund outflows. The 30-share BSE Sensex tanked 721.08 points or 0.88 per cent to settle at over a month's low of 81,463.09. During the day, it plunged 786.48 points or 0.95 per cent to 81,397.69. The 50-share NSE Nifty dropped 225.10 points or 0.90 per cent to a month's low of 24,837. Tata Chemicals reported an 80.57 per cent increase in consolidated profit after tax (PAT) to Rs 316 crore for the quarter ended June 30. The company's PAT was Rs 175 crore during the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, Tata Chemicals said in a regulatory filing. Its revenue from operations declined nearly 2 per cent during the quarter under review to Rs 3,719 crore, mainly due to the cessation of Lostock operations in the UK. Shares of TCS to remain in focus after the company decided to reduce its workforce by 2% in its 2026 financial year. The move will eliminate roughly 12,200 jobs from the company's workforce of more than 613,000 as TCS deploys AI and other technologies while entering new markets and contending with an uncertain demand outlook. BEML Limited has entered into a strategic MoU with Hindustan Shipyard Limited (HSL) to collaborate on the co-creation of advanced marine systems-encompassing innovation, indigenous design, manufacturing, and end-to-end lifecycle support. Aadhar Housing Finance reported a 19 per cent increase in net profit to Rs 237 crore in the first quarter ended June 2025. The housing finance company earned a profit of Rs 200 crore in the same quarter a year ago. Total income during the quarter under review rose to Rs 851 crore from Rs 7,413 crore in the year-ago period, Aadhar Housing Finance said in a regulatory filing. Orient Cement Ltd, now part of billionaire Gautam Adani-led Adani Group, on Friday reported a multi-fold jump in its net profit to Rs 205.37 crore for the first quarter ended June 2025. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 36.71 crore a year ago, according to a regulatory filing by Orient Cement Ltd (OCL), a subsidiary of Ambuja Cements. Its revenue from operations surged 24.44 per cent to Rs 866.47 crore in the June quarter. It was Rs 696.26 crore in the year-ago period. SAIL reported a multi-fold rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 744.58 crore in the quarter ended June 2025 on the back of improved operational efficiency, better cash flow and strong growth in sales volume. The company had posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 81.78 crore in the year-ago period, Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) said in a filing to BSE. The consolidated income of the company during April-June period rose to Rs 26,083.90 crore compared to Rs 24,174.80 crore in the corresponding quarter of previous fiscal. Jammu and Kashmir Bank posted a 16.7 per cent increase in net profit at Rs 484.84 crore in the April-June quarter of FY26. The bank had reported a profit after tax (PAT) or net profit of Rs 415.49 crore in the same period of the previous fiscal year, J&K Bank said in a statement. Net Interest Income (NII) during the reporting quarter grew 7 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1,465.43 crore, while the other income jumped 29 per cent to Rs 250.30 crore from Rs 194.10 crore recorded last year. IDFC First Bank reported a 32 per cent slump in net profit to Rs 463 crore during the first quarter of the current financial year, impacted by slippages in the micro-finance book. The Mumbai-based lender had earned a net profit of Rs 681 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year. The total income rose to Rs 11,869 crore during the June quarter of 2025-26 from Rs 10,408 crore in the same quarter of FY25, IDFC First Bank said in a regulatory filing. IT company L&T Technology Services has bagged a multi-year contract worth USD 60 million (about Rs 510 crore) from a prominent US-based wireless telecommunications services provider. Under the agreement, LTTS will deliver advanced network software development and application engineering solutions. 'L&T Technology Services wins around USD 60 million software engineering engagement from US Tier-I Telecom Provider,' LTTS said in a statement. Kotak Mahindra Bank reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 4,472 crore for the June quarter, and flagged stress on the retail commercial vehicle portfolio due to adverse macroeconomic conditions. The consolidated net profit in the year-ago period was Rs 7,448 crore, but it had included gains of over Rs 3,000 crore on its stake sale in the general insurance arm, while the net profit for the March quarter stood at Rs 4,933 crore. The Department of Telecom has issued a 'show-cause-cum-demand notice' of about Rs 7,800 crore to Tata Communications over adjusted gross revenue dues, according to an official note by the company. The demand has been raised by the Department of Telecom (DoT) for adjusted gross revenue (AGR) from 2005-06 till 2023-24, as per the note dated July 17. (With inputs from agencies)
Mint
4 hours ago
- Mint
M-cap of 6 of top-10 top firms falls by ₹2.2 lakh crore: Check for winners and losers
The combined market valuation of six of India's top-10 most valued companies eroded by ₹ 2.22 lakh crore last week. The downturn was a result of a bearish trend in the equity market, with the BSE benchmark Sensex dropping 294.64 points or 0.36%. "Markets ended lower for the fourth straight week as caution prevailed amid mixed cues. The market's direction was initially influenced by earnings announcements, with the banking sector showing strength due to positive results from HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. However, a dip in stocks like Reliance capped the recovery. Furthermore, foreign fund outflows and uncertainty over trade deals ahead of the August 1 deadline kept volatility high," said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd. Reliance Industries and Infosys were the worst-hit among the top 10 firms, mirroring the market downturn. These firms suffered a combined erosion of ₹ 2,22,193.17 crore from their market valuation. Here are the firms who were the most affected due to the trend: Reliance Industries: The valuation of the largest company by market cap tumbled ₹ 1,14,688 crore to ₹ 18,83,856 crore, the most during the period. 1,14,688 crore to 18,83,856 crore, the most during the period. Infosys: The tech giant faced an erosion of ₹ 29,475 crore to ₹ 6,29,622 crore from its market capitalisation. 29,475 crore to 6,29,622 crore from its market capitalisation. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS): Its m-cap dropped by ₹ 20,080 crore to ₹ 11,34,035 crore. Bajaj Finance: The m-cap of the firm declined by ₹ 17,524 crore to ₹ 5,67,769 crore 17,524 crore to 5,67,769 crore Hindustan Unilever: The company's valuation fell by ₹ 17,340 crore to ₹ 5,67,450 crore. 17,340 crore to 5,67,450 crore. Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC): The valuation of LIC tanked ₹ 23,087 crore to ₹ 5,60,743 crore HDFC Bank: The bank's market valuation jumped ₹ 37,162 crore to ₹ 15,38,079 crore. 37,162 crore to 15,38,079 crore. Bharti Airtel: The m-cap of firm climbed ₹ 20,841 crore to ₹ 11,04,840 crore 20,841 crore to 11,04,840 crore ICICI Bank: The bank also registered gains by adding ₹ 35,814 crore, taking its valuation to ₹ 10,53,823 crore. State Bank of India: Its valuation went up by ₹ 9,685.34 crore to ₹ 7,44,449.31 crore. Reliance Industries retained the title of the most valued firm of India, followed by HDFC Bank, TCS, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever and LIC.
