ANALYSIS: If not WVU, then who wins Big 12 baseball tournament?

Dominion Post

22-05-2025

MORGANTOWN — With a move to single elimination and no team ranked above No. 23 in the country, but with six teams in the top 35 of the RPI, the Big 12 baseball tournament is wide open.
The 23rd-ranked Mountaineers have never been in the position as the Big 12's top seed before. As far as that goes, No. 25 Kansas has never been as high as the No. 2 seed it earned this season.
The league has the possibility of putting eight teams into the NCAA tournament, but there's also a chance the league gets no regional hosts.
'Nobody can go full steam and the only thing that matters is winning the (Big 12) tournament, unless you're not going to play in a regional and you have to win it,' WVU head coach Steve Sabins said. 'We have six teams that the only thing that matters is the (conference) tournament, and you have another half that wants to win, but doesn't have to win the tournament. That's the difference, essentially. That's why it can get a little bit wanky in pitching and setting people up.'
With all of that in mind, if the Mountaineers don't sweep their way through the Big 12 tournament, there are a few others in line to hoist the trophy.
If not WVU, then who? Here are your top possibilities:
The Jayhawks (42-14) put together a historic season under Big 12 Coach of the Year Dan Fitzgerald, who has Kansas in line to play in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2014, when it was also a regional host.
Kansas enters the tournament on a five-game winning streak, which includes a sweep of WVU to end the regular season. The Jayhawks' pitching was the story in that series, coming up with two shutouts.
The rest of the season was about Kansas' offense. Two more home runs will give the Jayhawks 100 dingers on the season and Jackson Hauge and Brady Ballinger – a combined 33 home runs – form the league's top one-two punch.
What can go wrong: The Jayhawks may wind up with the toughest quarterfinal draw with a potential matchup against seventh-seeded Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are the defending Big 12 tournament champs, were the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 this season and have won 11 of their last 14 games entering the tournament.
The Cowboys have played in 11 consecutive NCAA tournaments, which is the fourth longest streak in the country.
That was in jeopardy in mid-April, right before the Cowboys started to play like the team that was expected to win the Big 12 at the start of the season. Oklahoma State is 27-22 heading into the tournament, which doesn't look like being worthy of the NCAA tourney, but the Cowboys played the most difficult schedule of any Big 12 team this season. It's that strength of schedule (13th in the nation) that has them in position to play in another NCAA regional.
Also, when you have the league's top MLB draft prospect – Nolan Schubart – anything can happen. Schubart has five home runs and has driven in nine over his last six games. Then there is also starting pitcher Harrison Bodendorf, who went 10-1 with a 2.43 ERA this season.
Need to know: Oklahoma State is 10-5 in the Big 12 tournament since it was moved to Globe Life Field in 2022. No other Big 12 team can match that type of success in the league tournament.
The Horned Frogs (37-17) have the Big 12's top freshman in outfielder Sawyer Strosnider (.360, 10 HR, 50 RBI) and quite possibly the top 1-2 starting pitching combination in Tommy LaPour (7-2, 3.11 ERA) and Mason Brassfield (5-1, 3.59 ERA).
And TCU is 6-2 at Globe Life Field over the past two Big 12 tournaments, including a tournament title in 2023.
At the moment, the Horned Frogs are projected as the lone Big 12 regional host in the NCAA tournament, according to Baseball America and D1 Baseball.
Fitting right in: The Horned Frogs played a great schedule, are accustomed to success in the Big 12 tournament, and when you look at the Big 12 stats, they aren't bad at anything. If WVU doesn't win the Big 12 tournament, then TCU would be a pretty good bet.