Trump Hardens Tariff Threats on Copper, Drugs
There was a flurry of comments, of course, in Cabinet yesterday from the president and some posts on social media. But moving the markets certainly in the mental space is copper. What does it mean? The 50% threat in tariffs on copper imports into the US for that market? Yes, Tom, this is quite significant. I will point out, first of all, this has been fairly highly telegraphed. We have heard rumblings from Trump in the past about potential tariffs on copper. But I do think this marks, if he goes ahead with trying to pursue this type of tariff, a pretty substantial broadening of a group of duties that he's really taking to two metals. Obviously, you know, he spent much of his term already focusing on the steel and aluminum markets. This would mark, I think, a pretty broad expansion, adding copper. I mean, this would come at a time, Tom, when you've got not just the United States but the rest of the world is really, really been focused on in particular imports of copper. It's really important for a ton of different industries. You're looking at, you know, data centers, automobile companies, really kind of, you know, fueling, you know, really, really important processes and industries, particularly as, you know, some of these companies build out, you know, electrical grids, electrical vehicle markets, that kind of thing. So to have Trump kind of come out now, it seems that, you know, his administration is saying that they've completed their investigation. They're quite seriously considering this. I do think, you know, that poses a pretty significant advancement of what Trump has already done in the way of trying to issue lobbies for, you know, really, really important metals. We have also been hearing, of course, from the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, speaking about the need to rebalance trade between the EU and China. Let's take a listen. If our partnership is to move forward, we need a genuine rebalancing fewer market distortions, less overcapacity exported from China, and fair, reciprocal access for European business in China. So Joe, from Trump's threats of 50% tariffs on copper to the broader negotiations between the EU and the US, where do those conversations stand? Because yesterday we were talking about reporting that potentially the two sides could lock down a deal as soon as this week. Does that now look less likely? Well, Tom, I think the issue with trying to figure out what any of these deals ultimately look like before they're announced and quite frankly, sometimes after they're announced, is that Trump is often very, very difficult to predict. So, yes, I mean, yesterday we were hearing that what the deal looked like was potentially 10% across the board tariffs know, involving the EU, something that we did see a bit of optimism over yesterday. I think now it seems that some of the conversation is ultimately coming down to whether Airbus would ultimately be exempted from those tariffs. That's been a pretty critical point of focus for the EU, just because Airbus as the world's largest commercial jetliner is really kind of, you know, emblematic of a lot of the really complicated supply processes and mechanics of how the bloc sort of works with each other. Maybe that's still on the table at this point. But I would also point out that when again, when it comes to Trump world, nothing is really final until it's final. A lot of I mean, you know, just look at the way that he's been characterizing a lot of these talks just now and, you know, just today versus yesterday. I mean, yesterday he was talking about how this August one deadline was not 100% firm, firm, but not 100% firm. And now he's kind of, you know, walking back on that a little bit and I think trying to posture a little bit more strongly. So I think it just kind of shows that when it comes to negotiating with Trump, all of this can be really, really tricky. Maybe the EU still seeks out a deal that's more favorable to it than maybe what we originally saw with some of those Liberation Day tariffs back in April. But I do think that it does kind of indicate that there's still something that they need to focus on. But again, I think for the EU at the very least, Airbus is a really, really critical component of this to really protect.
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