US intercepts Iranian call on damage to nuclear sites, as photos show likely repairs under way
Satellite photographs taken since the strikes show repair and assessment work also appears to be under way at two of the three sites struck on June 22.
The intercepted Iranian communication played down the extent of damage caused by the strikes, The Washington Post reported, citing four people familiar with classified intelligence circulating within the US government. During the conversation overheard by the US, the Iranian officials wondered why the attacks had not been as destructive and extensive as anticipated.
But a source who declined to be named told Reuters that while the communication had been intercepted, there were serious questions about whether the Iranian officials were being truthful in their conversation, and described the intercepts as unreliable indicators.
The report by the Post is the latest to raise questions about the extent of the damage to Iran's nuclear program.
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A leaked preliminary assessment from the Defence Intelligence Agency cautioned the strikes may have only set back Iran by months, and the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, concurred with that on Sunday, saying Iran may be able to enrich uranium again within 'a matter of months'.
But CIA director John Ratcliffe told sceptical US lawmakers in a classified hearing last week that the strikes had destroyed Iran's lone metal conversion facility, a US official said, meaning it would now take years for Iran to build a nuclear bomb.
Ratcliffe also told politicians that the intelligence community assessed that the vast majority of Iran's amassed enriched uranium probably remained buried under the rubble at Isfahan and Fordow, two of the three facilities the US struck.
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Because the one time, one strike, one and done as we say in the US, deal that Trump entered into with Iran and then enforced a ceasefire on the Israelis, which is not really what they were looking for, is not the strike at all that they were hoping for. This is not what they wanted to draw the United States into. They wanted to draw the United States into a protracted campaign of a couple of weeks to a month or even two months to destroy, really destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, not damage them. There's a great deal of damage but it's not smouldering embers. Sydney Pead: Well, the US officials are pushing back on reports that doubted the level of damage to the Iranian nuclear program. The Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was adamant about that. Pete Hegseth, US Secretary of Defense: There's been a lot of discussion about what happened and what didn't happen. Step back for a second. Because of decisive military action, President Trump created the conditions to end the war, decimating, choose your word, obliterating, destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities. Sydney Pead: But even if the conflict wasn't everything Netanyahu was hoping for, he was quick to play it off as a win. So how did it play out domestically for him? Because he's been under a lot of pressure from the Israeli public. Hussein Ibish: Well, it looks great. It looks wonderful. It looks like Israel, and in fact it's true, that Israel itself went to war against Iran's nuclear facilities and scored terrific victories. We really don't know much about the impact of Iran's retaliation because of the extent of Israeli censorship. But it was, whatever it was, it was well within the acceptable range from an Israeli point of view. So this was highly successful. And so Netanyahu right now is in a great situation politically in Israel. He looks like the man who took the war to Hezbollah and won, to Iran and won, who was there when Assad fell, and who now only has to deal with Hamas to have dealt comprehensively with all of Israel's enemies one after another. And that's a very strong position for him to be in. The problem is he hasn't finished the Gaza war. There are still these hostages, and the war is by no means resolved. And it's just much harder to see how that finishes in a satisfactory way. Sydney Pead: I guess I'm wondering if that sort of apparent success in the conflict has strengthened his political position within Israel, and will it enable Netanyahu to push back against some of the people within his own government who want to continue to expand the war? Hussein Ibish: Yeah, I think so. I think he has the upper hand in Israel, and I think he has, to a very large extent, the upper hand against people inside his cabinet. On the other hand, he is still beholden to a couple of extremist parties, and they can bring him down, and he is still on trial. ABC Newsreader: The Prime Minister has been on trial for corruption charges, which he denies, since 2020. Mr Netanyahu argued that he needs to deal with pressing national security and diplomatic matters, sparking speculation a Gaza ceasefire may be imminent. Hussein Ibish: He still has a tiny majority, which means that small groups of extremists can really twist his arm, and he dare not fall, because he faces the prospect of conviction and incarceration. Sydney Pead: Okay, so Hussein, Netanyahu, he's sort of been facing unpopularity among his own people because of his inability to bring all the hostages home, but he's had what looks like this successful campaign in Iran, and he's convinced Trump to get involved. Now there are these new talks which will happen between Trump and Netanyahu next week. So where does he stand now with the US President? Because Trump was extremely angry when it looked like the ceasefire he brokered was on shaky ground. So what does that relationship look like now? Hussein Ibish: Yeah, well, Trump had a fit. I mean, let's face it. Donald Trump, US President: We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f*** they're doing. Do you understand that? Hussein Ibish: We've never seen a public meltdown like that, with Trump swearing at Netanyahu. He pretended he was swearing at the Iranian leaders too, but he really wasn't. He was swearing at Netanyahu, and that public swearing on television was followed by angry social media posts, and then finally an angry phone call. So personally, I think the relationship is very weak. But that doesn't matter, because politically, it's strong because both men needed to be strong. And as long as that's the case, it'll remain functional, and, you know, they don't have to like each other. They need each other to do what they need the other one to do. Sydney Pead: At the NATO conference last week, Trump said he thought that he was very close to striking a deal on the conflict in Gaza. Donald Trump, US President: I think great progress is being made on Gaza. I think because of this attack that we made, I think we're going to have some very good news... Sydney Pead: There were two months of relative peace earlier this year when they came to a ceasefire deal and there were some hostages released by Hamas. What do we know about what this meeting between Trump and Netanyahu could deliver? Could they secure another ceasefire deal? Hussein Ibish: I guess so. You know, it's definitely possible. Look, that ceasefire held until Netanyahu decided to break it. Steve Witkoff, who is Trump's envoy for these negotiations, has apparently issued another proposal calling for a 60-day ceasefire in exchange for the release of 10 living hostages and 18 corpses, and for also Palestinian prisoners. And then during that 60-day ceasefire, the two sides would negotiate a comprehensive ceasefire to end the war, which I think is necessary for Hamas to agree to anything. Hamas is not going to agree to anything that doesn't have the possibility of ending the war at some future extrapolated date. And, you know, Netanyahu wants nothing to do with a ceasefire that does not involve some form of categorical defeat for Hamas. I don't know what that looks like, frankly, because Hamas is not a list of people who can be killed or captured or a list of objects that can be destroyed. It's a brand name. It's a political brand. So you can't really defeat it in the long run. And certainly as long as there are a group of Palestinians in Gaza who say they're Hamas, then there is a Hamas. Sydney Pead: Hussein Ibish is a resident senior scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington DC. This episode was produced by Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, audio production by Sam Dunn. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I am Sydney Pead. ABC News Daily will be back on air tomorrow. Thanks for listening.
