Who Is The Team To Beat? Top Division Races? 5 Big Post-Trade Deadline Questions

Fox Sports

2 days ago

From the risky gambles to the shrewd moves, we saw all sorts of deals go down ahead of the MLB trade deadline.
But the dust has now settled, and we can turn our attention to the teams to beat and the top division races. Let's answer the biggest burning questions following Thursday's flurry of deals.
1. Lots of contenders improved, but are the Dodgers still the team to beat?
Kavner: The reigning champs, even after a surprisingly quiet deadline, remain the team to beat. Still, for a franchise that touts "optionality," the Dodgers — who rank 21st in ERA — didn't do much to improve their outlook or their precarious pitching situation. Brock Stewart is a nice add and a weapon against right-handed hitters, who have a .327 OPS against him this year, but at a deadline that saw Mason Miller go to the Padres, Jhoan Duran go to the Phillies, Ryan Helsley go to the Mets and David Bednar go to the Yankees, the Dodgers opted to sit out of the top end of an active bullpen market and are now counting mostly on better health and better performance down the stretch from their stars.
They have the talent, certainly, that it could work out, especially if Blake Snell, Max Muncy, Tanner Scott and Michael Kopech can come back healthy and — most importantly — if Mookie Betts can find his way offensively. But a quiet deadline, especially with the Padres once again pushing their chips in, is a risky choice. The field is much more wide open than anyone might've anticipated before the year began. The Mariners and Yankees stood out as deadline winners in the American League, and the Mets, Phillies and Padres are all much better positioned now to make a run in the National League. Still, I don't think any of them have dethroned the reigning champs as the team to beat.
Thosar: Yes, the Dodgers are still the favorites to win the World Series. I'm not as surprised as others that they didn't do much at the trade deadline because, even if some of their stars and key pieces are injured right now, they're expected to be healthy and just as dominant as ever by the time October rolls around. The Dodgers operated this summer's deadline like they're not panicking about their repeat title aspirations, and that's the way it should be. If anything, I think everyone else having bigger deadlines is a testament to how desperately they tried to close the gap, particularly A.J. Preller's Padres. The division rivals were certainly big winners at the deadline, with upgrades all over the diamond and additions to their already powerful bullpen. And while it was terrific to see contenders being bold and going for it with splashy and risky acquisitions in a seller's market, I still don't think any one team has surpassed the Dodgers' excellent championship outlook.
2. True or False: The Mariners 'won' the trade deadline in terms of adding win-now pieces. If not, who did?
Kavner: True, I think the Mariners won the deadline by adding Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, filling their two biggest needs in the lineup with two of the best hitters on the market without depleting their farm system in the process. An offense featuring Suárez, Naylor, Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford and Jorge Polanco combined with a rotation led by Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo certainly has an argument to be the scariest roster in the American League.
Now, in terms of which team acquired the most "win-now" pieces, the answer is probably — per usual — the Padres, who addressed their issues with lineup depth (Ryan O'Hearn, Ramon Laureano, Will Wagner) rotation depth (JP Sears, Nestor Cortes) and at catcher (Freddy Fermin) while adding the most electric young arm in the game (Mason Miller) to what was already MLB's best bullpen. This is now a roster capable of contending. Of course, doing all that meant emptying the farm, but it's hard to say any other team added more "win-now" pieces. Their moves are as all in as it gets.
Thosar: True. There are some rumblings around the league that the Diamondbacks were surprised more teams didn't try to make a big push for Eugenio Suarez, so good for the Mariners for going for it without taking a major hit to their farm system. The centerpiece of the deal was first baseman Tyler Locklear, the No. 9-ranked prospect in Seattle's system, and it's somewhat surprising Arizona wasn't able to do better than that, given Suarez was the top bat available this summer. In the end, the three players the D-backs received in return for the difference-making power hitter with the fifth-most home runs in baseball was underwhelming. Suarez, a rental, is as win-now as it gets, but on top of that, the Mariners aren't getting nearly enough credit for landing Josh Naylor. The first baseman's consistent production should be a huge boon for Seattle's already-solid lineup. There is no argument that the Mariners won the trade deadline.
3. Relief pitchers were among the biggest moves. Who came out with the most improved bullpen?
Kavner: The two New York teams. If I had to take one, I'd give the slight edge to the Mets. Their bullpen had an ERA over 4.00 in July, and that's despite Edwin Diaz allowing no runs in 11 innings. They needed another left-hander with A.J. Minter and Danny Young out for the year, found their answer in Gregory Soto and then kept going, adding two-time All-Star Ryan Helsley and submariner Tyler Rogers, who has been a weapon against righties (.505 OPS) and lefties (.542) alike.
The Yankees, meanwhile, had a 6.03 bullpen ERA in July and underwent their own overhaul. David Bednar and Camilo Doval are former All-Stars enjoying bounceback campaigns, and the Yankees may be able to get the most out of Jake Bird simply by getting him out of Colorado. There's more volatility associated with their moves, which showed in Friday's wild 13-12 loss to the Marlins in which all three pitchers struggled.
Bednar was optioned at the start of the year before getting back on track, Doval had an ERA close to 5.00 last season and can be prone to free passes, and Bird's ERA jumped from 2.68 at the start of July to 4.73 by the end of the month — but the Yankees brass managed to turn a weakness into a strength. It's also worth noting that all three relievers the Yankees added will be with the club beyond this year.
Thosar: I have to go with the Yankees (despite Friday's loss), though the Mets are not far behind. The former came out with the most improved bullpen because that unit was reeling before Thursday's additions, whereas the latter at least boasted the best closer in the majors in Edwin Diaz. In terms of ERA, the Mets' bullpen is ranked 11th, and the Yankees' is 20th. The Yankees have struggled without injured relievers Mark Leiter Jr. and Fernando Cruz. Plus, there was the whole Devin Williams situation to be concerned about because, even though he strung together a large stretch of solid relief appearances in June, there is still a feeling of uneasiness when he takes the mound in high-leverage situations. He's prone to melting down when things go south in the Bronx, and I'm expecting the Yankees to let him walk away when he hits free agency this winter.
That's in part why the additions of Bednar, Doval, and Bird were key for the Yankees. All three relievers have team control beyond this season, and even though Yankees GM Brian Cashman said that wasn't a conscious goal of his when he landed those high-leverage arms, it certainly helps the club both now and in the future.
4. What are the division races you're looking forward to the most?
Kavner: Both of the West races are suddenly a lot more compelling, but it's the AL East. Did the Blue Jays do enough on the pitching side to hold off the Yankees and Red Sox? Can the Yankees' litany of moves — adding Ryan McMahon, David Bednar, Camilo Doval, Amed Rosario, Jose Caballero, Jake Bird and Austin Slater — get them back on track, even with Aaron Judge ailing? What will Judge look like upon his return? Will Boston's disappointing deadline ultimately be its undoing, or can the Red Sox keep their momentum going into August? There are a lot of questions waiting to be answered.
Thosar: It's both of the East divisions for me. The Mets entered Friday with a teeny tiny half-game lead over the Phillies for first place in the NL East, and I'm expecting these division rivals to duke it out down the stretch. It's a compelling storyline to watch the new and improved Mets potentially win their first division title in 10 years in Juan Soto's first season in Queens. Sure, many expected something like that to happen, but it's another thing to go out and do it. On the other side of town, even though the Blue Jays have held onto first place in the AL East since the beginning of July, it would be shocking if the Yankees don't at least threaten to win the division after all the roster upgrades they made at the trade deadline. Can Toronto really stay in first all the way through the end of the regular season? And are the Red Sox just a hot stretch away from inserting themselves into that conversation? Right now, the East is a beast.
5. A's, D-Backs, Twins: Which of the trade deadline sellers have the best reason to believe they're set for the future?
Kavner: The Athletics had the best trade deadline of any seller, getting one of the top prospects in baseball in exchange for a reliever. Sure, Mason Miller has one of the most electric arms in the sport, and 18-year-old switch-hitting phenom shortstop Leo De Vries has a ways to go before we can definitively say what he will become, but that's the kind of move we just don't see at the deadline. It's a potential franchise-altering one for the A's, who also received three intriguing arms in the deal, including one of the Padres' top pitching prospects in Braden Nett, San Diego's 2024 Minor League Pitcher of the Year in Henry Baez and a 26-year-old reliever in Eduarniel Nunez, who has the stuff to help their bullpen immediately — he had a strikeout rate over 40% in the minors this year — if he can refine his control.
As for Twins fans … I'm sorry.
Thosar: As previously mentioned, Arizona's returns weren't that impressive, and the Twins deciding to blow the whole thing up wasn't convincing anyone that they're not completely set for the future. So I have to go with the A's here, especially since they received the highest-ranked prospects.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner .
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar .
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