‘Physical threat' from Iran has ‘increased significantly', watchdog finds

Leader Live

2 days ago

In a report published on Thursday, Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee described the threat from Iran as 'persistent' and 'unpredictable'.
The committee found the 'physical threat' from Iran had 'significantly increased', focused on Iranian dissidents and Jewish and Israeli interests, and was now 'comparable with the threat posed by Russia'.
It also warned that the nuclear threat from Iran had increased since the US withdrew from a key international agreement in 2018, arguing that de-escalation 'must be a priority'.
The report from the nine-member committee, which scrutinises the work of Britain's intelligence agencies, only covers the period up to August 2023 and publication was delayed by last year's election.
Between the beginning of 2022 and the end of the committee's evidence-gathering in August 2023, the report found there had been at least 15 attempts at murder or kidnap against British nationals or UK residents.
The committee urged the Government to make clear to Tehran that such attempts would 'constitute an attack on the UK and would receive the appropriate response'.
Committee chairman Lord Beamish said: 'Iran poses a wide-ranging, persistent and unpredictable threat to the UK, UK nationals and UK interests'.
Describing Iran's 'high appetite for risk when conducting offensive activity', he added: 'As the committee was told, Iran is there across the full spectrum of all the kinds of threats we have to be concerned with.'
His committee also recommended that the Government consider whether it was 'legally possible and practicable' to proscribe Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation and make a full statement to Parliament on the issue.
Ministers have faced calls in recent years to ban the IRGC, but the committee recognised there were 'complexities inherent' in such a decision.
Since August 2023, the international picture has changed with the outbreak of war following Hamas's attack on Israel in October of that year.
The war has seen Iranian proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah weakened, while last month the US and Israel carried out air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over concerns Tehran was close to developing a nuclear weapon.
But the committee insisted that, despite these changes, its recommendations remained 'relevant'.
The committee warned that, while Iran had neither developed a nuclear weapon nor decided to produce one by August 2023, it had taken steps towards that goal in recent years.
It found that Iran had been 'broadly compliant' with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that limited its nuclear ambitions.
But since the US under Donald Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, the threat of a nuclear Iran had increased and Tehran 'had the capability to arm in a relatively short period'.
It also warned that the UK remained a target for Iranian espionage, which it found was 'narrower in scope and scale' and 'less sophisticated' than the threat from Russia and China.
And while Iran had engaged in political interference activity, it said this had had 'a negligible effect'.
But the report cautioned that Iran-backed cultural and educational centres such as the Islamic Centre of England could be being used to 'promote violent and extremist ideology'.
The committee said it was also 'essential' to 'raise the resilience bar' on cybersecurity across the UK in the face of Iran's willingness to carry out digital attacks.
Regarding the Government's response to the Iranian threat, the committee warned that policy had 'suffered from a focus on crisis management' over Iran's nuclear programme and lacked 'longer-term thinking'.
It also criticised a 'lack of Iran-specific expertise', saying there was 'seemingly no interest in building a future pipeline of specialists'.
One witness told the committee: 'If you have people running policy in the Foreign Office who don't speak a word of Persian, then that is a fat lot of good.'
The committee also noted that the UK had sanctioned 508 individuals and 1,189 individuals relating to Iran by August 2023, but urged the Government to reconsider whether sanctions 'will in practice deliver behavioural change or in fact unhelpfully push Iran towards China'.
But it welcomed the decision to place Iran in the 'enhanced tier' of the new Foreign Influence Registration Scheme, placing extra burdens on people acting on Tehran's behalf in the UK.
A UK Government spokesperson said: 'This independent report demonstrates the vital work our security and intelligence agencies do countering threats posed by states such as Iran.
'This Government will take action wherever necessary to protect national security, which is a foundation of our plan for change.
'We have already placed Iran on the enhanced tier of the foreign influence registration scheme and introduced further sanctions against individuals and entities linked to Iran, bringing the total number of sanctions to 450.
'We thank the committee for its diligent work and will respond fully in due course.'