The Phillies Could Close Their Contention Window After This Season

Forbes

2 days ago

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 17: Kyle Schwarber #12 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a ... More two-run home run against the Colorado Rockies during the sixth inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on April 17, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by)
The Philadelphia Phillies are right where they expect to be at this point in the season, sitting atop the National League East with a 47-33 record. They're in position for their fourth-consecutive playoff appearance, but they're still searching for their first World Series championship since 2008. They need to pull out all the stops in their quest for the trophy because their window might be closing after this season.
Philadelphia has the same core that propelled them to success over the last few years, but that core is starting to get older. They're the only team in MLB whose pitchers and position players both have an average age of 30, and their hitters are the second-oldest in the league.
Phillies Contracts
They have seven players under contract for next season, not counting arbitration-eligible and pre-arbitration players. Of those seven guys, only Cristopher Sánchez is under the age of 32 this year. (This counts Trea Turner, who turns 32 on June 30.) The others include three hitters and three pitchers who will be in their mid-30s next season.
Bryce Harper and Turner will be Phillies teammates for a long, long time. Harper is in the middle of a 13-year, $330 million deal that lasts until 2031. The 32-year-old first baseman is hitting .258/.368/.446 with a 123 OPS+, indicating his offense has been 23% above the league average. Those are excellent numbers, but they're below his usual standards—the two-time MVP has a career OPS+ of 142—and he's on the injured list right now with wrist inflammation.
Turner is signed through 2033 on an 11-year, $300 million contract, and he has been the best player in the Phillies' lineup this season, pacing them with 2.6 WAR (Baseball-Reference version). He leads the National League with 96 hits and has also stolen 19 bases. However, he's on borrowed time defensively, as there are no starting shortstops in MLB this season older than 32. While he's still a strong defender up the middle for now, he'll have to change positions long before the end of his contract.
Right fielder Nick Castellanos is also under contract for next year for $20 million. He's hitting .281/.322/.437 with a 107 OPS+, but his awful defense bring his WAR down to -0.4. He could transition into a designated hitter role next year.
In addition to Sánchez, they'll return ace Zack Wheeler in the rotation, who will earn $42 million each year through 2027. With a 2.55 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and 126 strikeouts in 99 innings, he's making a run at the Cy Young Award this year in his age-35 season.
Their other pitching contracts aren't aging well. Longtime rotation stalwart Aaron Nola is in the second year of a seven-year, $172 million deal, but he's on the injured list with a sprained ankle. Before the injury, he compiled a 6.16 ERA through nine starts. Taijuan Walker will receive $18 million in 2026. He lost his rotation spot in May despite having a 3.99 ERA this season.
Phillies Free Agents
Several key players on the Phillies roster have contracts expiring at the end of this season, and they'll have a difficult time replacing their production.
Chief among them is designated hitter Kyle Schwarber. He has been the club's best bat by far, hitting .250/.380/.534 with a 149 OPS+, and his 24 home runs and 56 walks both rank third in the National League. It will be tough for the team to retain him as a free agent entering his age-33 campaign, especially when Castellanos needs to move out of the outfield.
Starting pitcher Ranger Suárez will be one of the biggest names available this offseason. He has a 2.08 ERA through 10 starts and 65 innings, and he could make his second consecutive All-Star appearance this year. He will be 30 when he reaches free agency, so he will command a large multiyear commitment on the open market.
Two veteran position players have been disappointments in what will likely be their final year in Philadelphia. Catcher J.T. Realmuto is having the worst full season of his 12-year career at the age of 34, hitting .240/.307/.354 with an 82 OPS+. Outfielder Max Kepler signed a one-year, $10 million contract in December, but he's batting only .211/.303/.388 with an 89 OPS+.
Even though Realmuto and Kepler aren't hitting much, they represent two more holes the front office will have to fill this offseason. With Schwarber and Suárez set to depart and the remaining core getting older, the Phillies could have trouble staying in playoff contention in 2026. That makes it even more important to go after the championship this year.