NASCAR Cup Series at Dover odds, predictions for In-Season Challenge Round 4

New York Times

a day ago

NASCAR heads to the coastal plains of Dover, Delaware, for the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 and the fourth (and final elimination) round of the inaugural In-Season Challenge.
Our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, answer our questions ahead of the race, including who on the bubble is in the most trouble and whether a long shot has a chance to win. Also, Bianchi went four-for-four last week with his challenge picks, and Gluck seems a little salty — he makes good points, though.
Take it away, guys!
Time to revisit and recalibrate your Challenge picks. Jordan, did you go four for four!?? What are we predicting for this final elimination into the championship?
Jeff: Hey, it's easy for Jordan to go four-for-four when he gets a re-do every week after his bracket blew up in Round 1, though I'll give him credit for taking a flier on picking Ty Dillon (even though it was just for fun). But I'll stick with my pick from the start — Tyler Reddick — to advance to the finals over Ty Gibbs. And although Dillon has been a fun story, he's been helped massively by the poor performance of his competitors: 31st, 37th and 19th. That has allowed Dillon to advance to the semifinals with finishes of eighth, 20th and 17th — although he certainly deserves credit for knocking Alex Bowman out of the way on the last corner at Sonoma to advance. But even though John Hunter Nemechek's run has also been unspectacular (he advanced by finishing 28th at Sonoma), his team will likely bring more speed at Dover, so I'm picking him over Dillon this week.
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Jordan: Sure, there's a minor detail about how and why I went four-for-four last week, but all that matters is what the scoreboard says. And don't be upset that I believed in the tournament Cinderella enough to hitch my wagon to the Ty Dillon Express, which, against all odds, just keeps chugging along every week. Yes, he will face a challenge at Dover, but that makes this run all the more inspiring. For Reddick vs. Gibbs, a case can be made for either, but Reddick gets the nod as he's shown greater speed overall this season than Gibbs.
You ranked the upset potential of the remaining regular-season races, and for Dover, you said, 'No way. There hasn't been an upset at Dover in the last 20 years.' Oof. Should we be disappointed by that? Could anyone get their first win of the season here? Should those trying to 'point' their way in be relieved or worried at this lack of upsets?
Jeff: There are plenty of opportunities throughout the season for upset winners; I just don't think this is one of them. If you look at the list of Dover winners since 2005, the entire list is current or future Hall of Famers except for Bowman, but Bowman won during a four-victory season, so it's not like it was any sort of fluke. You're not likely to see an out-of-nowhere driver win this race on strategy or even find themselves at the front during the race, so one of the usual suspects should win this week. And as you mentioned in your question, that is a big relief for the bubble drivers because it's unlikely that someone wins from outside the top 16 and jumps them to move the cut line.
Jordan: Dover is just not a track with a history of producing upset winners. This is a place that favors the best drivers and the top teams, and rare is it that circumstances allow someone beyond the 'usual suspects' to break through. But that doesn't mean there is little chance of seeing a first-time winner Sunday. The two obvious names to watch are Gibbs and Carson Hocevar, who have come close this season to getting that first-career win.
Mid-season panic meter: Who on the bubble is in the hottest water right now? What's the strategy going forward?
Jeff: It's hard to argue that Bubba Wallace isn't in the toughest spot of the bubble drivers because his team has playoff expectations, and he is currently in jeopardy of not doing so after his great start to the season evaporated. Wallace is only three points to the good on the cutoff line right now, but that line could move anytime with a new winner. And then he's got work to do to catch Bowman and Chris Buescher. In that case, the pressure would shift to Bowman — a Hendrick Motorsports driver can't miss the playoffs. In the meantime, the answer is Wallace, who was seventh in the point standings after the first 10 races but has only scored the 23rd-most points in the last 10. Wallace had only three top-20 finishes during that time, underlining how miserable this stretch has been.
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Jordan: Wallace cannot afford to miss the playoffs for a fourth time in five years, especially while his teammate Reddick has done so in three consecutive seasons. It would help Wallace's cause if he could shake some of the bad luck that's plagued him recently, often negating what otherwise would have likely been a solid result. But Wallace also must shoulder some of the blame; in Chicago, he allowed his frustration to get the better of him in the closing laps when racing Bowman, which cost him probably 20 points. The good news for Wallace is that the upcoming schedule includes a bevy of tracks — Dover, Indianapolis, Richmond, Watkins Glen and Daytona — where he should do well. If he performs like he's capable of, he should score enough points to move him off the bubble and guard against someone below him jumping ahead.
Who do you pick to win at Dover?
Jeff: I've got a bit of an unusual pick for you this week: Chase Briscoe, who has never finished in the top 10 at Dover. Here's my theory: Briscoe is driving Martin Truex Jr.'s old car and has his old team, and Truex has the best average finish at Dover in the Next Gen car (5.3). It's not like Briscoe doesn't know how to get around the place; he led 107 laps and won the 2020 Xfinity Series race there before he graduated to the Cup Series (and had four straight top-10s in Xfinity races at Dover). If the No. 19 team can bring similar speed to what we'd see with Truex, as it did for Briscoe's runner-up finish at Sonoma last week, the driver might surprise some people at +2000.
Jordan: Chase Elliott and the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team have seemed to up their performance in recent weeks — a stretch that includes a win at Atlanta that snapped Elliott's lengthy winless drought. And Dover represents a great chance for him to get his second win of the season. He is a two-time winner here, and his 10 top-five finishes are the most he has at any track. If Elliott can deliver Sunday, it will further solidify that the No. 9 team is every bit a title contender in the same class as William Byron, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney.
Who is a long shot you like?
Jeff: Last year, this race became a big talking point because of how well the drivers could defend with their rear-view cameras. They simply take away the line of the car behind them, and it makes it nearly impossible to pass when they get it right. There will be a new tire this year at Dover, so maybe that changes things, but all signs for now seem to point toward the favorites. That makes it hard to find a decent 'long shot' this week. But although he has the same odds as my winner pick and isn't an upset at all, Bowman at +2000 shouldn't be overlooked. Dover is a track he loves and where he brings confidence, as evidenced by five top-five finishes in his last seven starts there. It's actually the NASCAR track where he has the most top-five finishes in his career. So, this is bending the definition of a 'long shot' quite a bit, but I don't think any true upsets are realistic.
Jordan: As noted above, finding a viable longshot is not easy at Dover. So let's go with Ty Gibbs (+2800), who has finished decently here in two-career starts (10th and 13th) and whose team, Joe Gibbs Racing, is a powerhouse that has won two of the three races here, in the Next Gen Era. In a week where it feels like only a select group of drivers can win, you can do a whole lot worse than picking Gibbs.
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(Photo of Chase Briscoe: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)