Reds farm system heat check: What's the immediate and future outlook?

New York Times

10-02-2025

It wasn't long ago that Elly De La Cruz was the top prospect in all of baseball, but now he has two seasons and an All-Star selection under his belt and the cover of 'MLB The Show' on his resume. Despite the graduation of De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott and others, the team is still mining the success of 2022's teardown in its farm system.
Advertisement
There may not be a De La Cruz-level obvious superstar down on the farm, but the Reds have talent in their system. They have at least two exciting arms among the top in baseball in Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns and five total prospects in The Athletic's Top 100 list, while two others — pitcher Chase Petty and catcher Alfredo Duno — have popped up on other Top 100 lists.
GO DEEPER
Top 100 MLB prospects 2025: Keith Law's rankings, with Roman Anthony at No. 1
No. 40 Chase Burns, RHP
No. 48 Rhett Lowder, RHP
No. 77 Edwin Arroyo, SS
No. 83 Cam Collier, IF
No. 100 Sal Stewart, IF
After taking Lowder with the seventh pick in the 2023 draft, the Reds looked at Lowder's workload in college and sent him to High-A Dayton, but he didn't pitch in a game. The team then invited Lowder to big-league camp last spring and started him at High-A Dayton. Lauded as an advanced pitcher when the Reds took him out of Wake Forest, Lowder's performance confirmed the scouting report. He made his way through the Reds' minor-league system from Dayton to Double-A Chattanooga, Triple-A Louisville and ultimately his big-league debut on Aug. 30, less than 14 months after being drafted.
Lowder making it to the majors was one thing, but his performance in his six starts raised expectations for his future. The right-hander went 2-2 with a 1.17 ERA, taking his turn in the rotation over the season's last month.
In other recent Reds camps, Lowder could've come to Goodyear with a spot in the rotation virtually assured. Instead, he will most likely start the year in Louisville. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott will return, while Nick Martinez accepted the Reds' qualifying offer of $21.05 million to return to Cincinnati and into the rotation. The team then traded for Brady Singer, who should also start the season in the rotation.
Advertisement
A year ago, the Reds used 16 different starters (including five different openers), so there will be a need for more than five and Lowder will be atop the list if there's an injury or one of the others underperform. Once he gets to the big leagues, it may be hard to keep him there.
Phillips had a challenging 2024 but had a nice showing in the Arizona Fall League. If he can harness his control, he could immediately become a weapon in the bullpen. If the Reds are in contention late in the season, there's a path to Phillips coming out of the bullpen to help bolster the team. That's not to say he's a reliever long-term (and not to say he isn't), but he would be an attractive option if he still has innings left in his arm in September.
Since the 2022 trade deadline, many have been asking just what the Reds will do with all of their middle infielders. The answer has been simple, but is even more striking when laid out: you move them to other places on the diamond. The Reds will test the adage that if you can play shortstop, you can play anywhere. Of the nine players in our projected lineup, only three haven't played in the middle infield at some point in their pro careers, catcher Tyler Stephenson and corner infielders Sal Stewart and Cam Collier.
On the other hand, this complete lack of outfield experience does highlight one of the weaknesses in the team's farm system: Since the opening of Great American Ball Park in 2003, the Reds have had just four different homegrown outfielders to put up a bWAR of 3.0 or more, with only Jay Bruce doing it twice. TJ Friedl's 3.8 bWAR in 2023 was the highest by a homegrown Reds outfielder since Bruce's 5.2 bWAR season in 2013.
Stephenson will be a free agent following the 2026 season but is the type of player the team has picked up in years past.
Advertisement
Projected starting lineup:
Matt McLain, CF
Elly De La Cruz, SS
Sal Stewart, 3B
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B
Spencer Steer, LF
Tyler Stephenson, C
Noelvi Marte, RF
Cam Collier, DH
Edwin Arroyo, 2B
Bench: Blake Dunn OF; Tyler Callihan, IF; Carlos Jorge, IF/OF; Logan Tanner, C
One of the team's top prospects is a catcher, but Duno will be just 21 on Opening Day of 2027, so while there is great promise with him, it's still on the horizon, even two years from now.
Rotation:
RHP Hunter Greene
LHP Nick Lodolo
RHP Rhett Lowder
LHP Andrew Abbott
RHP Chase Burns
The potential rotation in two years showcases the strength of the Reds' system (as well as their pool of prospects to use in trades), with all but Burns having started at least six games for the Reds in 2024. Abbott is the only one of the five who wasn't a top-10 draft pick. The team also has Phillips, Chase Petty and Lyon Richardson in the pipeline who could be depth in the minor leaguers or in the team's bullpen.
Bullpen:
RHP Alexis Díaz, closer
RHP Graham Ashcraft, setup man
LHP Sam Moll, setup man
RHP Tony Santillan, mid-relief
RHP Connor Phillips, mid-relief
RHP Lyon Richardson, mid-relief
RHP Carson Spiers, multi-inning/mid-relief
RHP Julian Aguiar, multi-inning/mid-relief
Díaz will be in his final season of team control, so it wouldn't be much of a surprise if he were to be traded before Opening Day in two years, but he's the incumbent in this exercise, so he stays at the back of the bullpen. That said, Ashcraft, Santillan, Phillips and Richardson all have the stuff to take that spot.
(Top photo of Rhett Lowder: Jesse Johnson / Imagn Images)