Tropical Storm Erick to strengthen rapidly, may become major hurricane
AccuWeather meteorologists believe Tropical Storm Erick will rapidly strengthen over the next couple of days. It will quickly reach hurricane intensity and become the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northern and Western Hemisphere so far this year before approaching the southwestern coast of Mexico.
On the heels of Dalila, Tropical Storm Erick formed off the coast of Mexico early Tuesday morning and is forecast to become the second hurricane of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season in a matter of hours. This is the earliest fifth-named storm since July 9, 1956. The average date for the fifth-named storm is July 23.
With now five tropical storms and one hurricane already history for the basin, this season is well ahead of the historical average pace. Typically, the fourth tropical storm does not form until mid-July, and the average date for the first hurricane is not until June 26. Barbara briefly strengthened to a hurricane back on Sunday, June 8.
"We expect Erick to slowly drift northwestward and become a hurricane prior to the end of the June 17 calendar day," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
"There is a chance that if this tropical storm can organize quickly enough, it could then rapidly strengthen into a powerful Category 3 hurricane, prior to nearing the southwestern coast of Mexico," DaSilva said, "Erick may track very close to Acapulco with the full impacts you would expect from a hurricane ranging from powerful wind gusts and power outages to torrential rain and flash flooding as well as storm surge flooding."
Factoring in the possibilities of intensity, track, topography and population, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes with the current rainstorm is a 2, but that could climb based on how quickly and how much Erick strengthens and exactly where it approaches the Mexico coast.
Barbara peaked last week as an entry-level Category 1 hurricane while well offshore with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. This new storm could easily eclipse that intensity as it approaches the coast and populated areas.
How much rain and wind occur to the north and east of the center will depend on the amount of strengthening prior to landfall later this week. Both heavy rain and gusty winds will reach Mexico in advance of the center of the storm.
Enough rain is likely to fall in parts of southern and southwestern Mexico along the coast and over the interior mountains to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
Strong winds will buffet the coast, generating large swells, big waves, overwash on the beaches and shoreline and dangerous rip currents in the surf zone.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect 14-18 tropical storms for the eastern Pacific season with seven to 10 to become hurricanes. Of these, from three to six will bring direct impacts to Mexico and Central America.
In the wake of the fifth tropical storm this week, yet another tropical rainstorm may unfold west of Central America prior to the end of the month (June 24-27).
Tropical Atlantic continues to sleep
Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic basin continues to struggle with vast areas of dry air, dust and disruptive winds-all of which are not uncommon tropical development deterrents early in the season.
"While the chances have become very small, we continue to watch the area close in to land in the southwestern Gulf and the western Caribbean for tropical development late in June," DaSilva said.
There have been some showers and thunderstorms in this area in recent days, but no organization has occurred. "Any tropical rainstorm or depression that were to form in the area would likely not spend much time over warm water and, hence, its lifespan would be brief," DaSilva said.
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