Study projects over 15 million people born during 2008-2017 could develop gastric cancer in life
Two-thirds of the more than 15 million projected cases could be concentrated in Asia, followed by the Americas and Africa.
Researchers, including those from the International Agency for Research on Cancer — the World Health Organisation's cancer agency — analysed data on the incidence of gastric cancer across 185 countries using the GLOBOCAN 2022 database, along with death rates projected from United Nations demographic data.
"Globally, 15.6 million lifetime gastric cancer cases are expected within these birth cohorts, 76 per cent of which are attributable to Helicobacter pylori (bacteria)," the authors said in the study published in the journal Nature Medicine.
A persistent infection due to 'Helicobacter pylori' — a common bacteria found in the stomach — is said to be the main driver of gastric cancer, which ranks as the world's fifth leading cause of death from cancer.
The authors called for more investment in preventing gastric cancer, especially through population-level screening and treating of the bacterial infection, known to be preventable through effective treatment.
They added that increasing incidence among the young and an ageing population together threatens to reverse recent efforts in bringing down death rates and cases of gastric cancer.
The study projected 10.6 million of new gastric cancer cases will occur in Asia, with 6.5 million cases expected in India and China alone. Cases from India could be 1,657,670 with no changes in the current measures for controlling gastric cancer, it projected.
Further, sub-Saharan Africa — currently having a relatively low burden of gastric cancer — could see a future burden at least six times higher than 2022 estimates suggest, the authors said.
However, if measures to control gastric cancer in the population are taken, such as screening for and treating bacterial infections, the authors found that expected cases of the disease could be brought down by up to 75 per cent.
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