Why have there been so many upsets at this year's Wimbledon?

CNN

19 hours ago

If there's a crumb of comfort for seeded players who have already been dumped out of Wimbledon, then it's this: You're not alone.
Tennis' biggest names have been dropping at an unprecedented rate during the first week of this year's tournament, throwing sections of the men's and women's draws wide open.
It has led to a period of soul-searching for the world's best players. World No. 3 Jessica Pegula called her 58-minute defeat against Elisabetta Cocciaretto 'probably the worst result I've had all year,' while a tearful Coco Gauff said her straight-sets loss against Dayana Yastremska 'definitely sucks.'
Men's third seed Alexander Zverev was even more frank when he spoke of feeling 'very alone' and trapped in a 'hole' on the tennis court following his defeat to Arthur Rinderknech.
Pegula and Gauff were joined by fellow top-10 seeds Zheng Qinwen and Paula Badosa in their first-round exits, while Zverev, Lorenzo Musetti, Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev had similar fates in the men's draw.
According to Opta, it's the first time in the Open Era that eight players – men's or women's – seeded inside the top 10 have been eliminated in the first round of a grand slam.
What's more, a tournament-record 13 seeded players in the men's draw lost their opening matches, while Gauff became just the third woman in the Open Era to exit in the first round of Wimbledon having won the French Open a few weeks earlier.
As of Friday, 19 seeded players have been knocked out of the men's draw and 17 in the women's.
For Gauff, she believes the French Open title may have been the issue when it came to her Wimbledon loss. The American star said that a deep run at Roland Garros had hindered her going into the grass-court swing, while also citing it as a wider reason for the glut of upsets we have seen this week.
The transition from clay to grass tournaments is short and notoriously demanding for players, making dips in form even more likely.
'I feel like, historically, Wimbledon always has so many upsets in the first rounds here, to be honest,' Gauff told reporters. 'I think it's always a topic. I would say really the quick turnaround – most of the seeds are going deeper in Roland-Garros … and then you have to come and try to adjust to grass.
'This slam out of all of them is the most prone to have upsets because of how quick the turnaround is from clay,' she added.
Clay and grass require contrasting tactics and styles of play. On the former, the ball bounces higher and spins more dramatically; on the latter, shots tend to stay low and net-play, rather than long, baseline rallies, tends to be rewarded.
Additionally, play is slower and more methodical on clay, while grass is much faster. And while players can stretch and slide on clay, grass courts don't usually offer players the same luxury.
'Movement on grass is completely different,' longtime coach Patrick Mouratoglou previously explained on his YouTube channel. 'It's a completely different feel, it's a completely different way to move.'
The clay-to-grass transition has perhaps been made even more challenging by the Wimbledon courts being slower than usual, perhaps due to the hot weather before and at the start of the tournament. Speed of play has been an issue mentioned time and again by players.
'It felt slower and kind of more slippery, I would say, with the movement,' Iga Świątek, a clay-court specialist who has historically struggled on grass, said after her first-round win.
'But also with the heat and everything, the ball bounced differently than how it will in the next days, I assume. … We will have to adjust every day to a little bit different conditions. Grass is a living surface, so it will also change a bit.'
Few players have mastered the switch from clay to grass, with Carlos Alcaraz an obvious exception. The Spaniard won his second title at Queen's just two weeks after triumphing at the French Open last month, but even he struggled in his first-round match at Wimbledon, needing five sets to see off Fabio Fognini.
More than ever before, the well-worn adage that there are no easy matches at a grand slam has rung true during this year's Wimbledon. It's testament to the depth of talent on display in the sport right now, a potential giant-slayer lurking in every round.
'The game is just really tough,' Frances Tiafoe said after his second-round defeat by Cameron Norrie, a former Wimbledon semifinalist who is unseeded at this year's tournament.
'It's not like how it used to be where you can kind of, I mean, quote, unquote, 'get to your seedings' easier. Now a lot of guys you don't even know come out and play, and by the time you know it, you find yourself battling deep in the fourth and fifth (sets).
'The game has incredible depth right now. If you're not ready to go, you're going to lose. It seems like guys weren't ready to go, ready to play.'
That depth is always more evident at a grand slam, where stakes are higher and those lower down the rankings play like they have nothing to lose. And for the bigger names in the draw, the nerves will be greater than at other events, making upsets more commonplace.
'First rounds are really, really tough, especially as a seeded player,' American No. 10 seed Emma Navarro told reporters on Tuesday. 'You have players (who) kind of have nothing to lose and feel like they're just going after everything. You know the consequences of losing first round of a grand slam – that can be overwhelming sometimes.
'It can be easy to feel like there's a mountain ahead of you,' Navarro added. 'The first challenge is maybe not technically or tennis-wise the hardest, but it's your first match at a new venue. Even if you've played there the year before, things always feel different. … It's not always easy to get through that first challenge.'
Wimbledon also arrives midway through the calendar year – a point at which fatigue has begun to accumulate and the physical demand of the tour is taking its toll. That's likely to be worse for higher-ranked players, who go deeper in tournaments and end up playing more matches.
'Honestly, I think everyone's just kind of tired,' American sixth seed Madison Keys told reporters after progressing to the third round. 'The season's been long already. It's hard. It's been six months and I feel like we've all just played a lot of matches. … There is bound to be a point in the season where people have dips.'
For those lower-ranked players still in the men's and women's draws, this week's Wimbledon could be the chance for a deep and career-defining run at a grand slam. Take one quarter of the women's draw, where only two of the eight remaining players are seeded – a golden opportunity for a dark horse to reach a semifinal or beyond.
'Hopefully no upsets anymore in this tournament – if you know what I mean,' women's top seed Sabalenka said after her second-round win against Marie Bouzková. She was half-joking, half-all-too-aware of what has already happened to some of her biggest rivals.