Japan Heads To Polls Amid Rising Prices, Immigration Concerns
Opinion polls suggest Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito may fall short of the 50 seats needed to retain control of the 248-seat upper house of parliament in an election where half the seats are up for grabs.
The polls show smaller opposition parties pushing for tax cuts and increased public spending are set to gain, among them the right-wing Sanseito, which vows to curb immigration, oppose foreign capital inflows and reverse gender equality moves.
A poor showing by the coalition could shake investor confidence in the world's fourth-largest economy and disrupt critical trade talks with the United States, analysts said.
Ishiba may have to choose between making way for a new LDP leader or scrambling to secure the backing of some opposition parties with policy compromises, said Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at the Asia Group in Japan.
"Each scenario requires the LDP and Komeito to make certain concessions, and will be challenging, as any potential partner has leverage in the negotiations."
After the election, Japan faces a deadline of August 1 to strike a trade deal with the United States or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market.
Such import levies could squeeze the economy and further pressure the government to give financial relief to households already reeling from inflation, such as a doubling of rice prices since last year.
With an eye on a jittery government bond market, the LDP has called for fiscal restraint, rejecting opposition calls for major tax cuts and welfare spending to soften the blow.
Ishiba's administration lost its majority in the more powerful lower house in October.
That was the LDP's worst showing in 15 years, roiling financial markets and leaving the prime minister vulnerable to no-confidence motions that could topple his administration and trigger a fresh general election.
Ruled by the LDP for most of the post-war period, Japan has so far largely avoided the social division and fracturing of politics seen in other industrialised democracies.
Voting ends at 8:00 pm (1100 GMT), when the media are expected to project results based on exit polls.
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Business Standard
9 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Japan votes in key election as Prime Minister Ishiba faces possible loss
Japanese were voting Sunday for seats in the smaller of Japan's two parliamentary houses in a key election with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling coalition facing a possible defeat that could worsen the country's political instability. Voters were deciding half of the 248 seats in the upper house, the less powerful of the two chambers in Japan's Diet. Early results were expected Sunday night. Ishiba has set the bar low, wanting a simple majority of 125 seats, which means his Liberal Democratic Party and its Buddhist-backed junior coalition partner Komeito need to win 50 to add to the 75 seats they already have. That is a big retreat from the 141 seats they had pre-election, but media surveys predict big setbacks for Ishiba. A poor performance on Sunday would not immediately trigger a change of government because the upper house lacks the power to file no-confidence against a leader, but it would certainly deepen uncertainty over his fate and Japan's political stability. Ishiba would face calls from within the LDP party to step down or find another coalition partner. Soaring prices, lagging incomes and burdensome social security payments are the top issues for frustrated, cash-strapped voters. Stricter measures targeting foreign residents and visitors have also emerged as a key issue, with a surging right-wing populist party leading the campaign. Sunday's vote comes after Ishiba's coalition lost a majority in the October lower house election, stung by past corruption scandals, and his unpopular government has since been forced into making concessions to the opposition to get legislation through parliament. It has been unable to quickly deliver effective measures to mitigate rising prices, including Japan's traditional staple of rice, and dwindling wages. US President Donald Trump has added to the pressure, complaining about a lack of progress in trade negotiations, and the lack of sales of US autos and American-grown rice to Japan despite a shortfall in domestic stocks of the grain. A 25% tariff due to take effect Aug. 1 has been another blow for Ishiba. Ishiba has resisted any compromise before the election, but the prospect for a breakthrough after the election is just as unclear because the minority government would have difficulty forming a consensus with the opposition. Frustrated voters are rapidly turning to emerging populist parties. The eight main opposition groups, however, are too fractured to forge a common platform as a united front and gain voter support as a viable alternative. The emerging populist party Sanseito stands out with the toughest anti-foreigner stance with its Japanese First platform that proposes a new agency to centralize policies related to foreigners. The party's populist platform also includes anti-vaccine, anti-globalism and favours traditional gender roles. Conservative to centrist opposition groups, including the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, or CDPJ, the DPP, and Sanseito have gained significant ground at the Liberal Democrats' expense. The spread of xenophobic rhetoric in the election campaign and on social media has triggered protests by human rights activists and alarmed foreign residents. The LDP has almost continuously dominated Japan's postwar politics, contributing to its political stability and social conformity. Voters are divided between stability and change, with some voicing concern about escalating xenophobia. Yuko Tsuji, a 43-year-old consultant, who came to a polling station inside a downtown Tokyo gymnasium with her husband, said they both support the LDP for stability and unity and voted for candidates who won't fuel division." If the ruling party doesn't govern properly, the conservative base will drift toward extremes. So I voted with the hope that the ruling party would tighten things up, she said. Self-employed Daiichi Nasu, 57, who came to vote with his dog, said he hopes for a change toward a more inclusive and diverse society, with more open immigration and gender policies such as allowing married couples to keep separate surnames. That's why I voted for the CDPJ, he said. I want to see progress on those fronts.
The Hindu
an hour ago
- The Hindu
Japan heads to polls in key test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba
Japanese voters could unleash political turmoil as they head to the polls on Sunday (July 20, 2025) in a tightly contested upper house election, with rising prices and immigration concerns threatening to weaken Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's grip on power. Opinion polls suggest Mr. Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito may fall short of the 50 seats needed to retain control of the 248-seat upper house of parliament in an election where half the seats are up for grabs. The polls show smaller opposition parties pushing for tax cuts and increased public spending are set to gain, among them the right-wing Sanseito, which vows to curb immigration, oppose foreign capital inflows and reverse gender equality moves. A poor showing by the coalition could shake investor confidence in the world's fourth-largest economy and disrupt critical trade talks with the United States, analysts said. Mr. Ishiba may have to choose between making way for a new LDP leader or scrambling to secure the backing of some opposition parties with policy compromises, said Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at the Asia Group in Japan. 'Each scenario requires the LDP and Komeito to make certain concessions, and will be challenging, as any potential partner has leverage in the negotiations.' After the election, Japan faces a deadline of August 1 to strike a trade deal with the United States or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market. Such import levies could squeeze the economy and further pressure the government to give financial relief to households already reeling from inflation, such as a doubling of rice prices since last year. With an eye on a jittery government bond market, the LDP has called for fiscal restraint, rejecting opposition calls for major tax cuts and welfare spending to soften the blow. Ishiba's administration lost its majority in the more powerful lower house in October. That was the LDP's worst showing in 15 years, roiling financial markets and leaving the prime minister vulnerable to no-confidence motions that could topple his administration and trigger a fresh general election. Ruled by the LDP for most of the post-war period, Japan has so far largely avoided the social division and fracturing of politics seen in other industrialised democracies. Voting ends at 8 p.m. (1100 GMT), when media are expected to project results based on exit polls. Final nail for Ishiba This could be the final nail for Mr. Ishiba, having already been humiliatingly forced into a minority government after lower house elections in October. 'Ishiba may need to step down,' Toru Yoshida, a politics professor at Doshisha University, told AFP. Japan could 'step into an unknown dimension of the ruling government being a minority in both the lower house and the upper house, which Japan has never experienced since World War II,' Yoshida said. At one of Tokyo's polling stations on Sunday (July 20, 2025), 54-year-old voter Atsushi Matsuura told AFP 'Commodity prices are going up, but I am more worried that salaries aren't increasing.' Another voter Hisayo Kojima, 65, expressed frustration that the amount of her pension 'is being cut shorter and shorter'. 'We have paid a lot to support the pension system. This is the most pressing issue for me,' she said. Ishiba's centre-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, albeit with frequent changes of leader. Ishiba, 68, a self-avowed defence 'geek' and train enthusiast, reached the top of the greasy pole last September on his fifth attempt and immediately called elections. But this backfired and the vote left the LDP and its small coalition partner Komeito needing support from opposition parties, stymying its legislative agenda. 'Energy prices have swung sharply in recent months, as the government has flip-flopped between removing aid for household energy bills and adding new supports,' said Stefan Angrick at Moody's Analytics. Trumped Out of 248 seats in the upper house, 125 are up for grabs on Sunday. The coalition needs 50 of these to keep a majority. Not helping is lingering resentment about an LDP funding scandal, and US tariffs of 25 percent due to bite from August 1 if there is no trade deal with the United States. Japan's massive auto industry, which accounts for eight percent of the country's jobs, is reeling from painful levies already in place. Weak export data last week stoked fears that the world's fourth-largest economy could tip into a technical recession. Despite Ishiba securing an early meeting with US President Donald Trump in February, and sending his trade envoy to Washington seven times, there has been no accord. Trump poured cold water on the prospects of an agreement last week, saying Japan won't 'open up their country'. 'We will not easily compromise,' Ishiba said this month. Ishiba's apparently maximalist strategy of insisting all tariffs are cut to zero -- although this could change post-election -- has also drawn criticism. 'How well his government is able to handle negotiations over US tariffs is extremely important, as it's important for the LDP to increase trust among the public,' Masahisa Endo, politics professor at Waseda University, told AFP. 'Japanese first' The last time the LDP and Komeito failed to win a majority in the upper house was in 2010, having already fallen below the threshold in 2007. That was followed by a rare change of government in 2009, when the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan governed for a rocky three years. Today the opposition is fragmented, and chances are slim that the parties can form an alternative government. One making inroads is the 'Japanese-first' Sanseito, which opinion poll suggest could win more than 10 upper house seats, up from two now. The party wants 'stricter rules and limits' on immigration, opposes 'globalism' and 'radical' gender policies, and wants a re-think on decarbonisation and vaccines. Last week it was forced to deny any links to Moscow -- which has backed populist parties elsewhere -- after a candidate was interviewed by Russian state media. 'They put into words what I had been thinking about but couldn't put into words for many years,' one voter told AFP at a Sanseito rally.
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Double whammy for Land of the Rising Sun
In 2025, India's economic growth has propelled it to become the world's fourth-largest economy, surpassing Japan. While this marks a significant milestone for India, Japan faces challenges including potential US tariffs and a sluggish recovery, leading to anxieties amidst this shift in global economic rankings. As the US prepares to impose 25 per cent tariffs on Japanese goods from August 1, 2025, threatening to erode export earnings and slow growth, and with India projected to overtake Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy, Asia's trade dynamics are undergoing a dramatic shift. Against this backdrop, Rubix Data Sciences has released its latest Country Insights Report: Japan, offering a timely analysis of how Japan is navigating these challenges and how its deepening partnership with India is becoming increasingly strategic. Despite decades of economic strength, Japan is facing headwinds. Growth in 2024 slowed to just 0.1 per cent, and while corporate investments in chipmaking and record-breaking Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) have offered some support, weak household spending and rising import costs have weighed heavily. Inflation, once dormant, remains above target at 3.7 per cent, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) cautiously raising rates. The US' 25 per cent tariffs on Japanese exports, scheduled to take effect August 1, 2025, could slash Japan's GDP growth by up to 0.26 percentage points and cut exporter profits by 25 per cent, particularly in the critical automotive sector. 'The trade deficit has doubled in three years, and new tariffs are set to deepen the strain,' the report warns. Notably, the report highlights how Japan's corporate sector is responding with a wave of M&A activity, driven by governance reforms, private equity interest, and undervalued assets. Japan recorded its busiest year forM&A since 1985 in 2024, with deal value surging 44 per cent to over $230 billion, and the momentum has continued into 2025. Landmark transactions, such as Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel and Bain Capital's record healthcare deal, illustrate how Japanese firms are pursuing growth abroad and strengthening competitiveness at home. In parallel, India is projected to surpass Japan's GDP in 2025, signalling a tectonic shift in Asia's economic hierarchy. The report notes India's GDP edging ahead to $4,187 billion, narrowly overtaking Japan. Yet, rather than competitors, the two nations are increasingly strategic partners. Bilateral trade between India and Japan grew at a 13 per cent CAGR between FY2021 and FY2025 to cross $25 billion in FY2025, though India's trade deficit with Japan has nearly doubled, reaching $12.7 billion. Japan's imports from India, buoyed by rising demand for automobiles and smartphones, grew at an impressive eight per cent CAGR between FY2021 and FY2025, while India's imports from Japan grew by 15 per cent CAGR during the same period, driven by steel, copper, and precious metals. Automobiles now account for 13 per cent of India's exports to Japan, a remarkable rise from just one per cent four years ago, positioning India among Japan's top-5 car suppliers.
