Not just GDP: Why India must think like China and Japan, says Sridhar Vembu
Sridhar Vembu doesn't mince words. 'We Indians have had it far easier,' he wrote in a powerful post on X. 'I am not saying 'easy' in absolute terms, but compared to what the Chinese endured, it was much easier. We need to keep this perspective. The Chinese story is an inspiration.'His message: if India wants to rival China, it must embrace a much deeper transformation—one rooted in history, sacrifice, and self-belief.The Zoho founder isn't talking about GDP figures or quarterly earnings. He's urging a national mindset shift.'The Chinese never thought of it merely as 'developing the economy'. They thought of their national project as 'reviving their great civilisation',' Vembu explained. That, he said, is the core idea India must urgently absorb.For Vembu, the difference lies in what fuels a nation's growth. 'This crucial point is so easily missed in purely economic discourse,' he wrote. 'It is about the culture and the civilisational mindset as much as it is about technology and industry.'
In other words, a true national revival begins when people see themselves as heirs to something far older and grander than just a GDP graph.'We are not just growing the GDP and meeting quarterly numbers, as important as those may be in the short term,' Vembu said. 'Let's resolve to ourselves that what we are working on is nothing less than the revival of our great civilisation.'He believes this shift in thinking can build endurance and purpose. 'We must look beyond [our past], as hard as that is,' he wrote, referring to India's centuries of colonisation and invasion. 'Only then can the nation maintain the morale and endurance needed for long-term transformation.'To drive the point home, Vembu urged his followers to study China's modern history—its immense pain, missteps, and sheer resilience.
'Please read the history of China, of the last 100 years,' he said. He pointed to Mao Zedong's catastrophic Great Leap Forward between 1958 and 1962, when millions perished amid forced collectivisation, backyard steel furnaces, and mass starvation. 'About 30 million people perished as they killed landlords and intellectuals and the poor starved to death.'
He also cited the Cultural Revolution (1966–76), when schools were shut and patriotic citizens were purged as 'capitalist roaders.' 'So much sorrow and heartbreak. So much human sacrifice to Maoist frenzy,' Vembu wrote. Despite all that, China rebuilt itself.'They survived all that and somehow revived their nation,' he said. Even Deng Xiaoping, architect of China's economic reforms, 'didn't have it easy at all' and barely survived three political purges.Vembu's point? India's challenges pale in comparison. But without matching China's will and long-term clarity, it risks remaining stuck in cycles of half-hearted growth.Vembu's critique isn't just philosophical—it's grounded in the reality of India's tech sector, especially the Indian IT services model.After India's biggest software exporters posted disappointing quarterly results, Vembu warned that the downturn isn't just cyclical, nor merely caused by AI or Donald Trump's new tariffs. Instead, it signals the start of a painful reset.'Our jobs came to depend on [inefficiencies],' he wrote bluntly. He argued that for decades, the global software industry thrived on bloated systems and an input-driven billing model. India, he said, inherited and amplified this dysfunction.'A two-person team can outperform a 20-person team,' he stressed. Yet, Indian firms kept hiring in bulk, simply because fixed dollar budgets and low per-capita costs allowed it.It's a model that rewards bloat over brilliance. 'Billing by staff-months removed the incentive to innovate or streamline,' he wrote.While many worry that AI will destroy jobs, Vembu sees it differently. AI, he said, brings only modest gains—for now. The deeper problem is that the industry was built on years of easy money, duplicated systems, and a fear-of-missing-out culture that justified spending without outcomes.Enterprise software became 'saturated,' he noted in an earlier post, due to 'easy VC, PE, and IPO money.' Companies layered on complexity and confusion, and Indian IT firms rode the wave.But that wave is receding.Vembu warned that the current 'funding drought' means the day of reckoning has arrived. Unlike in 2008, when central banks flooded the system with cash, there's no easy escape this time.Vembu urged the industry to challenge old assumptions. 'The next 30 years will look nothing like the last,' he wrote.He pointed to Indian banks as a model of lean, efficient tech adoption—forced to innovate without inflated budgets or Western-style bloat.The time has come, he believes, for India to stop being the back office of the world and start solving problems at home.One user on X echoed this sentiment, lamenting that 'generations of talent were sacrificed to function as backdoor offices for global giants.' They said this reliance undermined India's autonomy and leadership.Another user blamed the 'culture of jugaad,' calling it a barrier to true innovation and digital sovereignty. Vembu agreed.A third warned that with global cash flows drying up, not just tech—but finance, consulting, and other white-collar sectors—could face serious disruption.Yet another user highlighted a structural flaw in India's service model: revenue depends on billable hours. Efficiency, ironically, becomes the enemy. 'Engineering teams resist efficiency initiatives if they lead to reduced billable hours,' they observed.Despite the critique, Vembu's message is ultimately one of hope.India, he believes, is at the edge of a profound turning point—not just in industry, but in identity.This isn't about complaining over policy or corruption. 'We will not complain about this shortcoming or that bad tax policy,' Vembu wrote. 'We will not even complain too much about the corruption of our fallen political system.'Instead, it's about choosing to believe in something bigger—something ancient.'Let's resolve to ourselves that what we are working on is nothing less than the revival of our great civilisation,' he wrote. A call not just to work harder, but to dream longer.
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