Asia Rugby Championship permutations: How can UAE keep World Cup dream alive in Sri Lanka?
The UAE will play their last match of the 2025 Asia Rugby Championship (ARC) against Sri Lanka in Colombo on Friday.
Much is riding on the final fixture of the campaign. Defeat could lead to relegation after two years back in the top tier of continental competition, but victory will keep alive the side's hopes of playing at the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
What is at stake?
The winners of the 2025 ARC will advance directly to the World Cup in Australia in two years' time.
The second-placed side will play a play-off fixture against the runners-up from Africa's equivalent competition, in Ghana at the end of July.
The winners of the Africa-Asia play-off will enter a four-team repechage competition to be played in Dubai in November. That event will decide the final qualifier for the World Cup.
The fourth-placed team in the ARC will have to play a relegation play-off against the ARC Division One winners.
Permutations
Hong Kong will clinch World Cup qualification if they beat South Korea on Saturday. They would do similar if they picked up two losing bonus points – meaning, scoring four tries and losing by seven points or less.
If the UAE beat Sri Lanka, they will likely leapfrog South Korea and take the runners-up place – thus advancing to the Asia-Africa play-off.
That is not certain, though. If the UAE failed to score four tries in beating Sri Lanka, they would finish level on nine points with South Korea if the latter take two losing bonus points against Hong Kong.
In that case, the UAE would need to advance their points difference beyond the Koreans. That would be unlikely if they do not score four tries, and the Koreans finish within seven points of Hong Kong. South Korea currently have a 33-point advantage.
South Korea will qualify for the World Cup if they beat Hong Kong by more than seven points, and stop them scoring four tries.
The Koreans will take second place if they lose to Hong Kong with a bonus point, and Sri Lanka beat the UAE.
Sri Lanka need a four-try win against the UAE and hope Hong Kong inflict a heavy win over South Korea to stand a chance of reaching second place.
Their points difference is 77 inferior to the Koreans ahead of the final games.
Form
Hong Kong have been the dominant side in Asia since Japan switched their focus to Tier 1 opposition based around the Pacific since 2018.
They beat the UAE 43-10 in the opening round in Dubai, then thrashed the Sri Lankans, and are heavy favourites to take a sixth ARC title in a row.
The UAE looked rusty in their opener, but bounced back to take a brilliant comeback win against the Koreans in Incheon.
The Sri Lankans are difficult to assess. They will likely have targeted the first and last matches of the tournament for wins.
They were just two points away from beating South Korea in Colombo at the start. Now they will look to regroup after their 78-7 loss in Hong Kong.
The match will be streamed live on Asia Rugby's YouTube channel. Kick-off is 2.30pm UAE time on Friday.
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