With Russia and Ukraine to Meet Again, Here's What to Know About the Peace Talks
Neither Russia nor Ukraine has signaled any intention to soften their demands on what it would take for peace, making a significant breakthrough unlikely.
Still, no matter how far apart their positions remain, the rarity of any public diplomacy between the two sides since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 means that these meetings will be closely watched.
What do the two sides say they want?
Both Kyiv and the Kremlin say they want to end the war. They just have very different views on what a peace agreement should look like.
Ukraine is demanding a full cease-fire before discussing a durable peace deal.
Russia wants the opposite, insisting on agreeing to the terms of a peace deal before laying down arms.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has said his forces would not surrender their battlefield initiative unless Kyiv agreed to a series of demands that include limits on its military and the acceptance of Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory.
But President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has said his country would never accept limits on its sovereignty, including in making military decisions, nor would it ever recognize illegal changes to its borders.
So why are they even meeting?
Part of the answer is President Trump.
The American leader made ending the war in Ukraine one of his main foreign-policy campaign promises. Since his inauguration in January, he has combined threats and incentives to try to get the two sides to talk.
As a result, neither side has been willing to publicly abandon the peace process out of fear of antagonizing Mr. Trump and prompting him to take the other's side.
Ukraine is trying to maintain U.S. military support and economic sanctions against Russia. The Kremlin wants to minimize any new U.S. sanctions and keep Mr. Trump from delivering even deadlier weapons to Ukraine.
Mr. Trump has changed his position on the war repeatedly since taking office. His latest demand is for Russia to agree to a peace deal by September or face new sanctions.
What happened at the previous talks?
The two previous meetings this year, in May and June, produced some humanitarian agreements. The two sides agreed to and have since carried out the largest prisoner exchange of the war, swapping 1,000 soldiers each in May. In June, they started exchanging bodies of soldiers killed in combat.
In June, Russia and Ukraine also exchanged lists of conditions for a peace deal. Both lists contain points unacceptable to the other side. The fact that the conditions have been made public, however, represents diplomatic progress, according to some analysts. Set in writing, these demands could serve as a basis for more constructive negotiations in the future.
What will be discussed?
Both sides have signaled they want to focus on topics that deliver political benefits at home, at little cost.
Russia has implied it wants to continue prisoner and body exchanges. Delivering bodies of dead Ukrainian soldiers to the enemy might hold political advantages for the Kremlin because it could force Kyiv to raise its official casualty figures.
Russia is taking more casualties in the war, but as its army advances, it is able to collect fallen soldiers from both sides. As a result, Russia has claimed to have delivered more than 7,000 bodies to Ukraine. Ukraine has given back about 100 bodies of Russian soldiers in exchange.
Mr. Zelensky said he wants to discuss the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russia from the occupied territories, a topic that Ukraine has used to rally international support.
The International Criminal Court in March 2023 said Russia's forceful removal of Ukrainian children may constitute a crime against humanity and issued arrest warrants for Mr. Putin and other senior Russian officials.
During the last meeting in June, Ukraine asked Russia to return 339 children. In the past, Ukraine has said thousands of its children were forcibly taken to Russia.
Mr. Zelensky said he also wanted to meet personally with Mr. Putin, arguing that only diplomacy at that level could achieve peace. The Kremlin on Tuesday rejected the proposal, saying negotiation progress should first be made at a lower level.
Will there be signs of progress?
Expectations that the two sides will agree to peace terms on Wednesday are exceedingly low. Instead, analysts will be looking for incremental progress on auxiliary issues that could signal common ground.
The actions of Ukraine's chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, will be particularly scrutinized. Mr. Zelensky this month removed Mr. Umerov from his post as defense minister but kept him at the head of the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul, leading some analysts to speculate that he was making diplomatic progress.
During the June talks, Mr. Umerov met privately with the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, before the official meeting began. According to Russian state media, the meeting lasted two and a half hours, twice as long as the official section.
Marc Santora contributed reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine.
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