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Thai court suspends PM Paetongtarn from duty

Thai court suspends PM Paetongtarn from duty

NHKa day ago
Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from duty on Tuesday as it proceeds with a petition demanding her resignation over a leaked phone call.
The court said it had accepted a petition from 36 senators accusing Paetongtarn of violating ethical standards stipulated in the constitution over the call. Her premiership is suspended pending the final ruling and a deputy prime minister is expected to step in as caretaker.
Paetongtarn has been facing backlash after her phone conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen was leaked. During their talk about border disputes, she seemed to disparage a Thai Army commander.
The court order adds to political turmoil over the government's handling of the border issues with Cambodia and the phone call.
Thousands of protesters gathered over the weekend, demanding that Paetongtarn step down. The latest survey shows that fewer than 10 percent of respondents thought she was suitable as a leader.
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A look at soaring border tensions between Cambodia and Thailand
A look at soaring border tensions between Cambodia and Thailand

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A look at soaring border tensions between Cambodia and Thailand

BANGKOK--Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office Tuesday pending an ethics investigation over a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian leader that followed a border row that erupted on May 28. The leaked call has set off political turmoil in Thailand as Paetongtarn faces growing dissatisfaction over her handling of the conflict. Here's what to know about the latest controversy and the dispute between the two Southeast Asian neighbors. The phone call between Paetongtarn and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen was reportedly made on June 15 and was leaked days after. Hun Sen said on his Facebook post that he recorded the conversation and had shared it with at least 80 people. In the call, the two were heard talking through a translator discussing the tensions at the border, and about whether they should lift restrictions imposed after the deadly clash. Paetongtarn could be heard addressing Hun Sen as uncle. He is a longtime friend of her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, a popular but divisive former Prime Minister. She urged him not to listen to a Thai regional army commander who had publicly criticized Cambodia about the border dispute and called him 'an opponent.' She also told Hun Sen to let her know what he wanted, and she would try to manage that. Critics said she went too far in appeasing Hun Sen, and that what she said, especially her comments about the army commander, damaged Thailand's interests and image. Paetongtarn has apologized but said she didn't do any damage to Thailand, arguing that her comments were a negotiating tactic. The recent dispute was triggered in May after armed forces of Thailand and Cambodia briefly fired at each other in a relatively small, contested border area that both countries claim as their own. Both sides have said they acted in self-defense. One Cambodian soldier was killed. While the countries said afterwards they have agreed to de-escalate the situation, Cambodian and Thai authorities continue to implement or threaten measures short of armed force, keeping tensions high. Thailand has added tight restrictions at its border with Cambodia that stopped almost all crossings in and out of Thailand except for students, medical patients and others with essential needs. Cambodia has banned Thai movies and TV shows, stopped the import of Thai fruits and vegetables and boycotted some of its neighbor's international internet links and power supply. It also stopped importing fuel from Thailand. Border disputes are long-standing issues that have caused periodic tensions between the two neighbors. Thailand and Cambodia share more than 800 kilometers (500 miles) of land border. The contesting claims stem largely from a 1907 map drawn under French colonial rule that was used to separate Cambodia from Thailand. Cambodia has been using the map as a reference to claim territory, while Thailand has argued the map is inaccurate. In February, Cambodian troops and their family members entered an ancient temple along the border in one of the disputed areas and sang the Cambodian national anthem, leading to a brief argument with Thai troops. The most prominent and violent conflicts broke out around the 1,000-year-old Preah Vihear temple. In 1962, the International Court of Justice awarded sovereignty over the area to Cambodia and that became a major irritant in relations. Cambodia went back to the court in 2011, following several clashes between its army and Thai forces which killed about 20 and displaced thousands of people. The court reaffirmed the ruling in 2013, a decision that still rattled Thailand. Similar to the Preah Vihear area, Cambodia is seeking a ruling again from the ICJ over several disputed areas, including where the deadly clash happened. Thailand has said it doesn't accept the jurisdiction of the ICJ and that any conflicting border claims between the two should be solved by the existing bilateral mechanism, including a joint committee which was established in 2000 as a technical means to discuss the survey and demarcation of the land border. Cambodia nevertheless said it has submitted the case to the ICJ and insisted that it would no longer discuss these areas under the two countries' bilateral mechanism. Tensions have soared as they engaged in a war of words that appeared intended to mollify nationalistic critics on both sides of the border. The ill feeling between the two neighbors is not just about overlapping border claims, but also deep-seated cultural enmity that has its roots from centuries ago, when they were large and competing empires. In more modern times, bad feelings have lingered, as Cambodia's development, hindered by French colonialism and, in the 1970s, the brutal rule of the communist Khmer Rouge, has fallen well behind Thailand. Both have fought over claims on cultural products ranging from boxing, mask dancing, traditional clothing and food.

Thai leader's suspension deals new blow to battered economy
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Thai leader's suspension deals new blow to battered economy

Thailand's ruling coalition was already fraying when a court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Tuesday, raising fresh doubts about her survival, the country's economy and the future of a dynasty that has loomed over the Southeast Asian nation for decades. In a blow to a country long plagued by political instability, the Constitutional Court sidelined the 38-year-old leader over a complaint linked to a leaked phone call in which she appeared to criticize the army and side with Cambodia in a border dispute — a potential breach of conduct under the constitution. She has 15 days to respond. For now, Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit leads a shaky coalition. The developments couldn't come at a worse time for Thailand: once feted as an Asian Tiger economy for its export-led growth, the country is mired in slow growth relative to its peers, with households burdened by debt, a budget bill outstanding and the imminent threat of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs weighing down expectations. The government slashed its 2025 growth forecast by a full percentage point to 1.3% in May. Over at the central bank, Gov. Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput is due to leave Sept. 30, and a successor has yet to be named. "No one is at the helm, and the Thai ship is going nowhere,' said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. "The budget bill has to be passed, so that's coming up with the wobbly, weak coalition government.' Amid all the turmoil, the Bhumjaithai Party, the ruling coalition's biggest partner, exited last month following weeks of infighting, and there's no guarantee now that others that had promised to stay won't follow. The court has yet to say how long it will deliberate, while a prolonged delay risks deepening the political vacuum, said Napon Jatusripitak, acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. "Thailand appears destined for a prolonged struggle to find a new prime minister and a political deadlock that could jeopardize the country's already fragile economic situation,' he said. Shinawatra, third right, greets the media before leaving the Government House in Bangkok on Tuesday. | Bloomberg Looming over everything is Thailand's influential military, which has led about a dozen coups since the kingdom's absolute monarchy was abolished in 1932 and has long been a key power broker in the country. The military and pro-military political parties were the key forces behind Paetongtarn's eventual ascension to power after a key opposition party couldn't secure enough support to form a government following national elections two years ago. That uneasy alliance paved the way for Paetongtarn's father, Thaksin Shinawatra, to return from a long exile. Even with the court's suspension, Paetongtarn isn't totally sidelined from power. Hours before the ruling Tuesday, she was named culture minister in a reshuffle expected to keep her in government. The new cabinet will be sworn in Thursday. But the damage may be permanent. A recent poll showed Paetongtarn's approval rating at 9.2%. Thousands have protested, calling for her resignation. Paetongtarn said Tuesday she accepts the court's ruling but gave little clarity on her future. "I'm still a Thai citizen,' she said. "I will continue to work for the country while my duties are suspended.' Even so, fears are growing the government could collapse before the next budget passes. The 2026 fiscal plan, due by August, is at risk. Burin Adulwattana, chief economist at Kasikorn Research Center, said a lame-duck government would add uncertainty, hurting the baht and stocks. 'Big trouble' "A key impact will be felt if the political turmoil leads to a budget delay,' he said. "Without it, the economy will have big trouble.' The baht fell 0.1% on Wednesday morning. The yield on Thailand's benchmark 10-year bonds was little changed after declining three basis points a day earlier. The benchmark stock index, the world's worst-performing major equity market globally this year, rallied 1.9% Tuesday on expectations that Paetongtarn's suspension will help reduce political tension. Whether things play out that way is far from certain. "This suspension exerts further downside risk to a growth outlook already mired in uncertainty from U.S. tariffs,' said Lavanya Venkateswaran an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking in Singapore. "The real question is, what next. That needs to be answered sooner rather than later considering the stakes.' If the court ultimately rules against Paetongtarn, she will be removed from office, triggering a parliamentary vote to pick a replacement from a list submitted before the 2023 election. Along with her father and aunt, Yingluck, Paetongtarn would be the third of the Shinawatra clan to be removed from office. Potential replacements Possible successors include the Pheu Thai party's Chaikasem Nitisiri, Bhumjaithai's Anutin Charnvirakul, United Thai Nation's Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, and the Democrat Party's Jurin Laksanawisit. Former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha — who led the last coup — is also eligible. And while a military takeover is always possible in Thailand, frustration over the country's economic performance under Prayuth ultimately pressured his government to allow for elections. "The decision by the court today has heightened the coup risk a bit,' said Thitinan of Chulalongkorn University. But "the last time they had a coup, they did not do well.'

Charm and Coercion Shape China's Expanding Security Footprint in Southeast Asia
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Charm and Coercion Shape China's Expanding Security Footprint in Southeast Asia

Beijing seeks to replace the U.S. as a primary security partner for Southeast Asian states, and it has been actively pursuing that goal in recent years. In recent years, China's defense diplomacy in Southeast Asia has intensified, signaling a calculated shift in regional strategy. While economic entanglement through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has long been Beijing's primary tool for regional influence, China's increasingly visible military engagements with Southeast Asian states point to a deeper, more comprehensive strategic posture – it seeks to replace the United States' role as a dominant security player in Southeast Asia. China views Southeast Asia as its backyard, given the geographic proximity between the two regions. As it is already a dominant trade partner for Southeast Asia, China is puzzled that the region's preferred security partner is the United States. Beijing thus seeks to replace the U.S. as a primary security partner for Southeast Asian states, and it has been actively pursuing that goal in recent years. Beijing's defense outreach to Southeast Asia is broad and multifaceted. It includes joint military exercises, arms sales, and high-level defense dialogues. China has conducted bilateral and multilateral exercises with Southeast Asian states, offered defense equipment and training to Laos and Myanmar, and conducted naval visits to Malaysia. This year, China institutionalized defense dialogue mechanisms with Southeast Asian states. It expanded the traditional '2+2' defense and diplomacy dialogue mechanism with Vietnam into a '3+3' – to include public security matters. Beijing has also established 2+2 dialogue mechanisms with Indonesia and Cambodia. Beijing often frames these interactions as win-win cooperation and part of its 'Community of Shared Future' doctrine, emphasizing non-interference and mutual development. However, such overtures can be interpreted as a soft-power expansion designed to recalibrate the regional balance in its favor. One of China's most notable defense relationships in the region is with Cambodia. Since Cambodia-U.S. bilateral relations started to cool nearly 15 years ago over human rights issues, China has stepped in to become the primary security partner for Phnom Penh. Through military assistance and infrastructure support, including the controversial expansion of the Ream Naval Base, China has effectively secured a strategic foothold in the small Southeast Asian kingdom. Thailand, traditionally a treaty ally of the U.S., has also drifted closer to China. Joint air force exercises such as Falcon Strike and frequent naval cooperation reflect a recalibration of Bangkok's defense diplomacy. Furthermore, China has become the largest arm supplier for the Thai armed forces. Thailand maintains ties with both the United States and China, and therefore, its increasing openness to Chinese military hardware and engagement signals a hedging strategy – balancing between two powers in an increasingly multipolar Asia. China's defense ties with Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines remain more cautious and transactional. These countries, all of which have maritime disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea, view defense cooperation through a more pragmatic lens. Indonesia, for instance, remains wary of Chinese incursions into its exclusive economic zone around the Natuna Islands. Bilateral defense ties between China and Malaysia are warm, with the latter acquiring four Chinese warships in 2016. However, the Malaysians are building up their defense capabilities on Borneo to defend their maritime interests in the South China Sea, where they have overlapping claims with the Chinese. The Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has reversed his predecessor's China-friendly approach, pivoting back toward the United States and actively contesting Chinese actions in the West Philippine Sea. Beijing's military engagement with Southeast Asia is not occurring in a vacuum – it is unfolding amid rising great power competition and against the backdrop of China's growing assertiveness in regional disputes. While China speaks the language of peace and development, its parallel military build-up in the South China Sea, construction of artificial islands, and harassment of regional maritime activities suggest a dual strategy: charm on the surface, coercion when challenged. In sum, China's expanding defense cooperation with Southeast Asia reflects both an opportunity and a challenge for regional states. It offers the region new avenues for engagement and capacity-building, but also tests its resilience against a future where partnership may blur into pressure. How Southeast Asia navigates this duality will shape the region's security architecture for years to come.

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