Military now won't cut off satellite data used by hurricane forecasters, climate scientists

USA Today

2 days ago

Microwave data from a trio of defense department satellites will continue flowing to NOAA to help inform sea ice research and hurricane forecasts.
A plan that would have stopped the flow of essential forecast data from a trio of aging military satellites during the middle of hurricane season has been nixed after widespread pushback.
Statements from the U.S. Navy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed on July 29 that data flow from microwave sounders on the trio of Department of Defense Satellites would continue until sometime next year as originally planned, backtracking from earlier announcements in May and June.
The sounders track rain and winds over the oceans and ice, said Walter Meier, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado.
Federal agencies and the military use the non-classified data for an array of computer modeling, but the information is considered vital for providing regular details about the polar regions, scientists told USA TODAY.
Additionally, numerous scientists have pointed out the importance of the microwave satellite data for logging information about moisture inside hurricanes, although NOAA emphasized the agency has a "robust suite" of other hurricane forecasting tools.
For monitoring sea ice, the microwave instruments provide "complete coverage of the polar regions every day and can 'see' at night,' Meier said. They are not affected by what gets reflected or refracted in the atmosphere and have operated continuously since 1987.
'That's almost 38 years-worth of sea ice data being used to track conditions in the Arctic,' he said. Scientists have similar continuity for Antarctica. Losing the microwave data would make it difficult to keep the long-term records intact.
Aging satellites will continue providing data, for now
The three satellites have been flying since at least 2009, Meier said. Typically planned to last three to five years, these missions have 'kind of been living on borrowed time.' So it wasn't a surprise when the military sent out notifications earlier this year that it would stop processing and distributing the data in September 2026.
Just a few weeks later, for reasons that were never fully explained, the military announced it would stop providing the data on June 30, 2025, more than a year earlier than expected. That kicked off frantic discussions among Meier and hurricane forecasters about how to replace that data. In response to a huge backlash, the military extended its deadline to July 30, 2025.
But on July 29, one day before the data transmissions were scheduled to stop, the Navy stated that after "feedback from government partners, officials found a way to meet modernization goals while keeping the data flowing until the sensor fails or the program formally ends in September 2026." The decision was initially reported by Michael Lowry, a meteorologist and hurricane specialist in Miami.
NOAA stated there would be "no interruption" to the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program data and the agency would continue to have access to the data for the duration of the program's life span.
Why satellite moisture data is important for hurricane forecasts
When a hurricane is far out at sea, the microwave sensors are one of the only ways to diagnose a storm's internal structure, said Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami.
A current NOAA satellite with a microwave instrument has different frequencies, and does not provide the same information, the scientists said, and polar orbiters aren't as effective because they sample less frequently.
Hazelton said things change fast inside tropical cyclones and forecasters need as much data as possible.
Losing the microwave data would degrade hurricane forecasts, said John Cortinas, a former deputy assistant administrator for science with NOAA's Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. 'Typically, fewer observations mean less accuracy.'
Losing half the microwave data available to forecasters decreases the ability to identify the most dangerous storms, the ones that intensify quickly and catch forecasters and the public off guard, said Jeff Masters, a former Hurricane Hunter research scientist and co-founder of Weather Underground.
Rapid intensification: Some hurricanes suddenly explode in intensity
Masters was among those who found it troubling that the loss of data could occur at a time when the frequency 'of this most dangerous type of hurricane is increasing,' There were nine such storms in the Atlantic last year, tying the record for the most in 45 years.
Even the original one-month extension would have been too little time to arrange for, and fine-tune, other instruments to match the previous data for scientific continuity, Cortinas said.
'Fingers crossed'
The satellite instruments, called Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounders, are fairly low resolution and don't do a whole lot for security and warfighting support, so they aren't a priority for an agency with a mission of national security and defense, Meier said. But he wishes there had been "more recognition of the value of the products to U.S. civilians."
Because the satellites are considered "very old," they're not as secure as they should be or as secure as a new system, Meier said. It's also likely the military didn't feel like it was worth it to upgrade the satellites, he said.
For now, he's keeping his "fingers crossed" that the data will continue to flow and give them an extended period to find a way to replace the microwave data and ensure continuity for long-term sea ice records at the ends of the Earth. One possibility, he previously told USA TODAY, includes an agreement to use data from another government, such as the Japanese Space Agency.
Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change, hurricanes, violent weather and other news for USA TODAY. Reach her at [e-mail] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.