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Asian markets mostly gain after Wall St tumbles following poor US jobs report

Asian markets mostly gain after Wall St tumbles following poor US jobs report

Globe and Mail19 hours ago
BANGKOK (AP) — Shares in Asia advanced Monday after Wall Street had its worst day since May following the release of weak U.S. jobs data.
Markets in Asia had already reacted on Friday to U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement late Thursday of sweeping tariffs on imports from many U.S. trading partners. The new import duties are set to take effect on Thursday.
The signs of trouble on the U.S. economic horizon have raised hopes that the Federal Reserve may relent and cut interest rates, analysts said.
Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index lost 1.2%, bouncing back from bigger losses, to 40,297.91.
The Hang Seng in Hong Kong jumped 0.8% to 24,691.53, while the Shanghai Composite index climbed 0.6% to 3,580.84.
In South Korea, the Kospi surged 1.2% to 3,155.64.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was nearly unchanged at 8,662.50.
Investors' worries about a weakening U.S. economy deepened after the latest report on job growth in the U.S. showed employers added just 73,000 jobs in July. That is sharply lower than economists expected. The Labor Department also reported that revisions shaved a stunning 258,000 jobs off May and June payrolls.
'The labor market, once a pillar of resilience, is now looking more like a late-cycle casualty, as soft data begin to replace soft landings in market discourse,' Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.
U.S. futures edged 0.4% higher, however, early Monday.
On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, its biggest decline since May 21 and its fourth straight loss. It closed at 6,238.01, posting a 2.4% loss for the week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2% to 43,588.58, while the Nasdaq composite fell 2.2% to finish at 20,650.13.
Internet retail giant Amazon fell 8.3%, despite reporting encouraging profit and sales for its most recent quarter. Technology behemoth Apple fell 2.5% after also beating Wall Street's profit and revenue forecasts. Both companies face tougher operating conditions because of tariffs, with Apple forecasting a $1.1 billion hit from the fees in the current quarter.
Trump's decision to order the immediate firing of the head of the government agency that produces the monthly jobs figures raised concern over whether there might be interference in future data.
The surprisingly weak hiring numbers led investors to step up their expectations the Fed will cut interest rates in September.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.21% from 4.39% just before the hiring report was released. That's a big move for the bond market. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed actions, plunged to 3.68% from 3.94% just prior to the report's release.
The Fed has held rates steady since December. A cut in rates would give the job market and overall economy a boost, but it could also risk fueling inflation, which is hovering stubbornly above the central bank's 2% target.
An update on Thursday for the Fed's preferred measure of inflation showed that prices ticked higher in June, rising to 2.6% from 2.4% in May.
The Fed held rates steady again at its most recent meeting this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been pressured by Trump to cut the benchmark rate, though that decision isn't his to make alone, but belongs to the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Businesses, investors and the Fed have been operating under a cloud of uncertainty from Trump's tariff policy.
Companies have been warning investors that unpredictable policies, with some tariffs already in effect while others change or get extended, make it difficult to plan ahead. Walmart, Procter & Gamble and many others also have warned about import taxes raising costs, eating into profits and raising prices for consumers.
In other dealings early Monday, U.S, benchmark crude oil bounced back to gain 22 cents to to $67.56 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, added 13 cents to $69.80 per barrel.
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The real reason behind the stunning U.S. job revisions and why Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner is utter nonsense
The real reason behind the stunning U.S. job revisions and why Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner is utter nonsense

Globe and Mail

time9 minutes ago

  • Globe and Mail

The real reason behind the stunning U.S. job revisions and why Trump's firing of the BLS commissioner is utter nonsense

'For the FOURTH month in a row, jobs numbers have beat market expectations with nearly 150,000 good jobs created in June. American-born workers have accounted for ALL of the job gains since President Trump took office and wages continue to rise.' - White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, July 3rd, 2025 'In my opinion, today's Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.' - President Donald Trump, August 1st, 2025 What a difference a month makes. Strong leaders share the credit and accept the blame. Weak leaders take all the credit and lay the blame on others. Talk about a classic case of shooting the messenger. If you don't trust the payroll data, then just go to the companion survey, which showed a huge 260,000 jobs decline in July and down 402,000 since the end of the first quarter (in the aftermath of all the tariff-related uncertainty if you are seeking out a culprit). And with no revisions to blame, either. What a sham. We are on a slippery slope, folks. President Trump said BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer would be 'replaced with someone much more competent and qualified,' claiming in a social- media post the government's jobs numbers were manipulated. What utter nonsense, but nary a peep from Congress who worry about being primaried. Never mind that Ms. McEntarfer wasn't merely nominated to the post by then President Joe Biden, but she was confirmed by the Senate 86-8 in January 2024 – and Vice President JD Vance, then a senator, was among those voting for her! Did she all of a sudden become incompetent? Hard to fathom. I hardly would fire a BLS commissioner because of the headline or revisions to the data, which are normal – in fact, the sort of downward revisions we saw in the last two months, while very large, is hardly without precedent. We have seen revisions close to this no fewer than two dozen times back to 1980. Nobody else ever got fired over it. This was a large two-month downward revision, to be sure, but that is only because the numbers in May and June were grossly overstated and every other employment statistic showed that it was nonfarm payrolls was the odd man out. And the revisions only corrected that anomaly. The plain fact of the matter is that there is nothing insidious nor nefarious going on. No attempt to mislead and no sloppy usage of the data. No case for Erika McEntarfer, who has been a government statistician since 2002 which covers a span where Bush, Obama, Biden, and Trump were in the Oval Office, to be fired. This is one part ruse and one part deflection. That's all it is. The fact that this last two-month revision (-258,000) was so big only attests to how the Establishment survey was so out of sync with the other data which is why the consensus on the first release has been consistently below what came out initially. So, I ask: what is so difficult to figure out here beyond the sampling problem which the BLS did not create? The issue is with the post-Covid plunge in the business 'response rate'. This is not about the BLS which is forced to deal with the data that companies send in with respect to the initial release. It seems completely lost in this discussion that the root of the problem is the historically low company response rate to the first round of the monthly survey – this is a survey that depends on business cooperation and the reality is that the response rate does not approach anything that can be considered reliable until that second revision comes in. Maybe the BLS should simply stop publishing the payroll data so quickly – think of the first release as something no more than an incomplete snapshot of the labor market because it is no easy task 'to get it right' in the days that follow a month in a market as complex and large as a 130 million workforce, and all the churning that goes on beneath the surface. What we gain in speed of delivery of the data we lose in the veracity given the naturally lower sample size once the response rate rises in the next two months. The one thing to consider is that it is an entire employment report, replete with a wealth of information beneath the headline, even if incomplete at first. But there is typically a high error term in the first go-around and especially since the pandemic as a record low share of businesses 57% get in their responses now in time for the first payroll release. Pre-covid it was over 80% in terms of the response rate. By the time the third revision comes in, and the response rate goes to 94%, where it's always been in the past and it is only then that the BLS truly has enough information collected for anyone to get an accurate portrayal of what the labor market really looked like in the month of the first release. It's really something that only now are people paying attention to the fact that first estimates get revised as more accurate information is received. This has been a fact of life… forever. Nobody was talking about it a month ago, funny enough. And there will be future benchmark revisions in the future as even more information comes in. Everyone who follows the data closely knows that there is a high error term in the initial release of everything from payrolls to retail sales to GDP. It is all written up each month in the detailed notes to the data releases. The price paid to receive information quickly is the accuracy, as it pertains to the initial report. Nobody is amazed that we got July data on the first day of August? And this number will get revised too, for sure. These are preliminary estimates only with a large error term only because the sample size with the first stab at the employment report is so small. Why is everyone so shocked? It's not as if the BLS hides from the fact that the smaller the sample size, the larger the error term … this is taken right from the report (the range of possibilities is huge but is stated for the record): 'The confidence interval for the monthly change in total nonfarm employment from the establishment survey is on the order of plus or minus 136,000 … The precision of estimates also is improved when the data are cumulated over time … in the establishment survey, estimates for the most recent 2 months are based on incomplete returns; for this reason, these estimates are labeled preliminary in the tables. It is only after two successive revisions to a monthly estimate, when nearly all sample reports have been received, that the estimate is considered final.' Maybe the way the BLS reports the data should be changed, but it is at behest of the companies reporting in their payroll on time and accurately. Maybe those in the trading pits should be forced to wait two to three months for the better estimate instead of being spoon fed something quick with a low sample size. You just need to compare the business response rate of the first NFP estimate to the month containing the second revision – as aforementioned, from around 58% to 94% -- to see how the BLS is forced to make guesswork out of the 42% of the business universe that fail to report their headcount on time. The information trickles in the next two months. Maybe there should be a financial penalty applied to the firms who don't send in their information on time. I've been talking about this discrepancy for the past few years … and, in fact, the revisions have constantly been on the downside. The next question is why have the revisions been squarely to the downside, even before last Friday's report? Prior to what we saw unfold on Friday, there were downward revisions to every month of the year, and they totalled 188,000. That was before the downward two-month revision of 258,000 in May and June. Ergo, this has been a pattern all year long and transcends what happened in the July report. There is also the question as to why the data are constantly being revised lower. This is akin to asking why the prior payroll data were so artificially inflated. Once again, at the time of that initial release, the BLS is compelled to deal with whack load of guesswork. It must fill in the gaps from the fact that, once again, the initial response rate is historically so low. There is a huge information gap. The lower the sample size, the wider the confidence interval and the higher the error term – a basic premise of statistical analysis. The issue is that since Covid, the small business sector, in particular, has been slow to send in their updated staffing level numbers to the BLS in time for that first survey. And we know for a fact that the small business sector (fewer than 50 employees) has created no jobs at all over the past six months and have on net fired -42k workers over the May-July period. The BLS very likely was extrapolating small business job creation that simply did not exist over the spring and into the summer and that anomaly was corrected last Friday. End of story. Nobody from the White House discusses this, but what happened on Friday with the revisions is that nonfarm payrolls, which had been the odd man out, was brought into alignment with the vast array of other very soft labor market indicators of late. For example, the average private sector nonfarm payroll print of 51,000 from May to July now more closely approximates (actually a little higher) the ADP comparable of 37,000. Mr. President – it's not as if the BLS is any further away from telling the same story as ADP is. Do you want to know the name of the person who is president and CEO of ADP so you can dismiss here too (if you can)? Her name is Maria Black. Maybe she needs to be subpoenaed. Over this same May-July period, the Fed's Beige Book showed half the country posting flat to negative job growth. All the payroll numbers did on Friday was reflect that. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment data on employment in July lined up as the fourth worst reading since the end of the Great Financial Crisis in mid-2009. The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey showed only 30% of those polled stating that jobs were 'plentiful', the lowest since April 2021 – surely households would have a pretty good idea of what their job situation is, don't you think? But just in case you want to have the President and CEO of the Conference Board fired too, his name is Steve Odland, and I'm sure he is not too hard to find. There are plenty of culprits around these days spreading bad labour market news. David Rosenberg is founder of Rosenberg Research.

3 Popular Stocks to Consider as Earnings Approach: DIS, FTNT, SHOP
3 Popular Stocks to Consider as Earnings Approach: DIS, FTNT, SHOP

Globe and Mail

time39 minutes ago

  • Globe and Mail

3 Popular Stocks to Consider as Earnings Approach: DIS, FTNT, SHOP

There will be many notable companies reporting their quarterly results this week, and several have stocks with pleasant ratings regarding the renowned Zacks Rank. With representation from the consumer discretionary and tech sectors, here are three of these popular stocks that investors may want to consider as their quarterly reports approach on Wednesday, August 6. Disney – DIS Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) Reporting results for its fiscal third quarter, Disney's DIS return to prominence as a consumer discretionary leader appears to be around the corner. The media conglomerate has seen its stock rise over +30% in the last year, hitting a 52-week high of $124 a share in late June. Cost-cutting initiatives and strategic pivots have led to strong performance across Disney's core businesses. To that point, Disney has seen a comeback at the box office with major screen hits like Inside Out 2 and Lilo & Stitch topping $1 billion in global receipts while also seeing increased profitability in its streaming platforms such as Disney+ and Hulu. Like Netflix NFLX, Disney has cracked down on password sharing and introduced extra-member fees for its streaming services, boosting monetization. Plus, the recent release of the latest Fantastic Four movie and the upcoming Freakier Friday reboot are keeping Disney atop the domestic box office, with 2% and 6% growth expected on its top and bottom lines during Q3. Reassuringly, DIS still checks the box in regard to value at a reasonable 20.1X forward earnings multiple with a price to sales ratio near the optimum level of less than 2X. Fortinet – FTNT Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) In the tech sector, Fortinet FTNT is increasing in popularity thanks to its next-generation AI-powered threat detection and post-quantum cryptography readiness, which prepares organizations for a future where quantum computers could break today's widely used encryption algorithms. Coming off a record Q1 for revenue, operating margin, and free cash flow, Fortinet's top line is thought to have stretched 13% to what would be a Q2 peak of $1.62 billion. Furthermore, Q2 EPS is expected to be up 3% to $0.59, with it noteworthy that Fortinet has fueled investor sentiment by exceeding earnings expectations for a remarkable 29 consecutive quarters dating back to May of 2018. Notably, over the last year, FTNT is sitting on gains of more than +70% with the impressive quarterly EPS beats illustrated by the green arrows in the Price, Consensus, and Surprise chart below. Shopify – SHOP Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) Rounding out the list of popular stocks to watch on Wednesday is Shopify SHOP, which has seen its stock spike over +15% year to date and now has staggering gains of +140% in the last year. Shopify's commerce platform has continued to grow in popularity after introducing AI-powered tools like its virtual assistant "Sidekick" and to help merchants navigate global trade complexities. Strategic partnerships with Meta Platforms META, Amazon AMZN, and TikTok have also expanded Shopify's ecosystem by increasing merchant reach and engagement. Shopify's Q2 sales are projected to spike 24% to $2.54 billion, with Q2 EPS expected to rise 8% to $0.28. Furthermore, analysts expect Shopify's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) to reach $81 billion, continuing a streak of seven consecutive quarters of 20%+ GMV growth. Bottom Line As it relates to portfolio-worthy stocks to consider, Disney, Fortinet, and Shopify will be three popular companies to watch as their quarterly results approach. To that point, these popular top-rated stocks look poised for more upside, but a post-earnings selloff could lead to even more compelling long-term opportunities. Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor Stock This under-the-radar company specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. And it's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be. With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $971 billion by 2028. See This Stock Now for Free >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Free Stock Analysis Report Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT): Free Stock Analysis Report Shopify Inc. (SHOP): Free Stock Analysis Report Inc. (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis Report Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): Free Stock Analysis Report Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): Free Stock Analysis Report

Company advised by Trump sons said it hoped to benefit from fed money, then took it back
Company advised by Trump sons said it hoped to benefit from fed money, then took it back

Winnipeg Free Press

time2 hours ago

  • Winnipeg Free Press

Company advised by Trump sons said it hoped to benefit from fed money, then took it back

NEW YORK (AP) — A public document filed by a company that just hired President Donald Trump's two oldest sons as advisers included a sentence early Monday that said it hoped to benefit from grants and other incentives from the federal government, which their father happens to lead. But when The Associated Press asked the Trump family business about the apparent conflict of interest, the document was revised and the line taken out. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are getting 'founder shares' worth millions of dollars in New America Acquisition 1 Corp., a company with no operating business that hopes to fill that hole by purchasing an American company that can play 'a meaningful role in revitalizing domestic manufacturing,' according to to the filing. The president has geared his trade policy toward boosting manufacturing in the U.S. The original version of the securities filing said the target company should be 'well positioned' to tap federal or state government incentives. That reference was taken out of the revised version of the filing. The Trump Organization didn't reply to a question about whether New America still planned to benefit from government programs or why the line was cut. But the outside law firm Paul Weiss that helped prepare the document sent an email to AP saying it was 'mistake' made by 'scriveners,' an old term for transcribers of legal papers. Kathleen Clark, an expert in government ethics, said any excuses are too late because the Trumps had already tipped their hand. Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. 'They just deleted the language. They haven't committed not to do what they said earlier today they were planning to do,' said the Washington University law professor and Trump critic. 'It's an attempt to exploit public office for private profit.' New America is what's know as a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. It's a publicly traded company that exists solely to use its funds to acquire another company and take the target public. New America plans to raise money by selling stock on the New York Stock Exchange at $10 a share. That will hand the two Trump sons a total of $5 million in paper wealth on the first day of trading. The company hopes to sell enough shares to raise $300 million, which it then plans to use buying a yet unidentified manufacturer. A press release issued by New America saying it was focused on 'American values and priorities.' It made no mention of the aim to get government incentives. The filing to New America's potential new investors to Securities and Exchange Commission was explicit about what it was looking for in target company. It said, among other things, it would that can ride 'public policy tailwinds' by benefiting from federal or state 'grants, tax credits, government contracts or preferential procurement programs.'

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