Our experts pick their Lions team for second Test against Australia
Joe McCarthy, who started the first Test, is a doubt as is wing Mack Hansen. Blair Kinghorn and Garry Ringrose are back available for selection while Owen Farrrell has impressed in his two matches on tour so far.
So much of the selection will depend on the fitness of Joe McCarthy and Mack Hansen. I have based this on neither being available. The return of Garry Ringrose to fitness means there will be a place for him in the 23. Farrell could yet start him with his Ireland partner Bundee Aki to ask fresh questions of the Wallabies, but Sione Tuipulotu was a star performer. Owen Farrell replaces Marcus Smith. Blair Kinghorn, who was not convincing enough on Tuesday to displace James Lowe, covers the back three.
While the back three misfired badly in Brisbane, it is difficult to see where you make changes given how the final midweek match unfolded in Melbourne. Just as Blair Kinghorn has zero chance of replacing Hugo Keenan after throwing two ghastly interceptions, Darcy Graham's prospects of filling in for a painfully out-of-form James Lowe are over, with injury ending his Lions debut after only 17 minutes.
As such, I am confining any tweaks to the pack: Ollie Chessum comes in for Joe McCarthy, whose foot seems unlikely to recover in time, while I defer to Andy Farrell's back-row choices in light of how emphatically Tadhg Beirne and Tom Curry defied their doubters in the first Test. The conviction with which Owen Farrell seized his moment as captain against the First Nations and Pasifika XV means that he deserves a place on the bench, at Marcus Smith's expense.
I am assuming that both Mack Hansen and Joe McCarthy are out and thus this necessitates a couple of changes from my previous starting XV. Chessum for McCarthy is a straightforward swap but while it is an unenviable Sophie's Choice for who starts on the left wing. Kinghorn threw two intercepts against the First Nations XV while Lowe has been out of form all tour. In the end, Kinghorn is the classier player and can be forgiven for a couple of aberrations. Chessum's promotion also means I have reverted to a 5-3 split but the balance of the backline cover is tricky but Garry Ringrose is just about versatile enough to provide back three cover.
After a flat finish in Brisbane, the bench is Andy Farrell's chief conundrum. Of course, he will not mind another disjointed second half if the Lions scrape over the line to take the series. Winning, by hook or by crook, is the bottom line. I have supposed that both McCarthy and Mack Hansen will not be fit, which brings one change to the starting line-up as Chessum partners Itoje in the engine room and the Lions retain the same back row. Lowe, Keenan and Freeman survive.
Ronan Kelleher also holds off Luke Cowan-Dickie and Jamie George despite line-out wobbles last time out, while I have gone for both Morgan and Earl among the replacements. And then we come to backline cover, which is bound to be contentious. By bringing in Farrell junior and Ringrose, I feel like most bases are covered and there is sufficient experience to steer the Lions past whatever the Wallabies can muster. That said, for Andy Farrell to drop Bundee Aki from the 23 entirely would be a surprise.
Two changes to the starting XV, one of which is enforced by the injury to Joe McCarthy (he has not been ruled out yet but it does not look positive). The other sees Ben Earl starting at No 8. The bench has had a bit of a reshuffle owing to Ollie Chessum's promotion to the starting XV, with Luke Cowan-Dickie and Jac Morgan hopefully offering the pack a bit more dynamism and drive in the latter stages than what we saw in Brisbane.
I had been tempted by Blair Kinghorn over Hugo Keenan but the former looked a little calamitous at times in the narrow, nervy victory over the First Nation and Pasifika XV, so he takes a spot on the bench alongside the man of the moment, Owen Farrell.
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