Positive outlook for beef, sheepmeat
A bright global meat and livestock outlook was given by Global Agritrends founding partner Brett Stuart and analyst Simon Quilty in a virtual presentation at the Red Meat Sector Conference in Christchurch.
Global beef prices were at record levels in June with global sheepmeat demand prices rising 68% since a November low in 2023, but still off 2021's record returns.
Global Agritrends forecasts lamb at $10 a kilogram in August could rise to $10.50/kg in mid-2026.
Mr Quilty said the record beef price index at 139.4 in June was at sustainable levels.
"We are at the start of this journey, not at the end."
He said the sheepmeat sector was a similar story, within a "millisecond" of record prices.
Both sectors could expect to reach new high prices next year with sheepmeat first to peak followed by beef, he said.
New Zealand was at this stage facing an extra 10% tariff for beef entering the United States from President Donald Trump's tariff policies, zero tariffs into China and 21.6% into Japan, 13.3% into Korea and zero tariffs in Taiwan, Indonesia and other markets.
For sheepmeat the only market with tariffs was North America.
Mr Stuart said they had been following Mr Trump's policies closely since his election to advise clients disrupted daily in their trade.
"There's probably never been a more extraordinary time in the global beef and sheep industry," Mr Stuart said.
He said exporters were probably best to panic slowly as Mr Trump's tariff "bark" had been much worse than the bite.
"Let's see how this plays out. Early in 2025 we had a lot of Canadians that were terrified as they export six million pigs to America and over a million cattle to America every year. They were terrified what tariffs would do to disrupt their industry and ultimately they never received tariffs."
He said Mr Trump had been largely unwilling to "lay the wood" to people.
This was seen by his offering extensions, a tariff pause and continuing to push deadlines out in response to opposition in his home country.
The bulk of key agricultural markets in Canada, Mexico, Japan and Korea are tariff free.
This could change on the August 1 deadline and while world leaders wonder if there will be another pause Mr Trump has said there will be no more extensions.
China's ban on US beef remains since March and Canada's retaliation tariff on US pork continued.
Mr Stuart said trade tariff talk had been very quiet for Australia and New Zealand and perhaps the best strategy was to avoid Mr Trump's gaze.
Brazil was the No 1 supplier of 175 million pounds of beef to the US in May, but was facing Mr Trump's proposed 50% tariff on all of its imports on top of a 26.4% tariff on its beef.
"There's also the potential for retaliation against US agriculture ... so agricultural becomes a real key pawn in the global trade war."
As Mr Trump's tariff agenda moves forward to an August 1 deadline, Global Agritrends' identified risks include Mexico potentially retaliating against US pork, dairy, poultry and beef.
Other retaliation against US exports was possible from Canada, while Japan and Korea are considered unlikely to respond as they could not survive tariffs of about 30% proposed by Mr Trump.
Potential wins for the US include the possibility of Japan trimming a tariff at 23% currently for US beef, and Australia's decades-long restrictions on US pork and beef being lifted, while new access agreements have been made with Philippines, Vietnam, United Kingdom and others.
"Thus far I would have to say Trump does not have a lot of success to show. He's made a lot of noise and a lot of threats."
China's ban on US and Canada beef had left only Australia as a major source of grain-fed beef as it scrambled for grain-fed beef supply.
As a result China had become the largest beef importer by a wide margin, up 25% this year.
Mr Quilty said the concern for Australia and New Zealand was Brazil would fill this supply as it could step up production quickly.
Global Agritrends still sees higher prices for New Zealand could result, with Brazil unlikely to fill our other markets.
The risk of China putting in a global import quota instead of country by country at the end of a safeguard investigation in December alleging imported beef harmed their domestic beef prices had yet to pan out.
That would be to the detriment of Australia and New Zealand he said.
The 2025-26 year was likely to bring the tightest beef supplies and record prices as restocking begins in key nations, with prices moderating in 2027-28.
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Scoop
an hour ago
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War & Peace In Thailand & Cambodia
Cross-border rocket attacks on the morning of July 29, by U.S.-armed Thailand and China-assisted Cambodia, "violated" a ceasefire brokered by President Trump who linked it to possibly lowering his 36 percent U.S. import taxes on exports from the two Southeast Asian nations. Thai and Cambodian army commanders however met for lunch on July 29 and appeared to put a halt to their six days of bloodiest fighting in a decade. Thailand blamed Cambodia for violating the first day of the ceasefire on July 29 by firing their dreaded Soviet-era, truck-mounted, multi-rocket artillery which unleashed unguided warheads onto Thai soil, prompting Thailand to retaliate with higher precision artillery. Beyond the battlefield, the fighting may be bolstering the hawkish, highly politized, Royal Thai Army's influence which appears to be gaining some domination over Bangkok's fractured elected coalition government after officials indicated the military was being allowed to unilaterally make decisions where and when to open fire. Thailand is a non-NATO U.S. ally. After decades of repeatedly seizing power in more than a dozen coups since 1933 and muting Thailand's struggle to establish a democracy, the Thai army lost swaths of popular support during the past few years, especially among university students and the rural poor. Now strident, jingoistic cheering of the military is being vociferously voiced by Thailand's mainstream and online media, public opinion, politicians, and at dinner tables, prompting human rights activists to worry the army's new popularity will enable it to increase its manipulative political power. "The soldiers will continue to do their job at full steam -- so Thais do not worry -- until the government has reached a clear agreement that there is no danger for the people, and to ensure we maintain the country's interests, in order to bring the peace we want to see," Thailand's Acting Prime Minister Phumtham said on July 27. Cambodia's authoritarian regime could also be strengthened by the patriotism and nationalism stirred by the worst fighting in a decade between the two Buddhist-majority countries. The fighting along Cambodia's northern border with Thailand coincides with a dangerously destabilizing breakup between the two nations' dynastic, billionaire, ruling families after decades of tight interlocking personal relations. Both countries' authoritarian de facto leaders and former prime ministers -- Thailand's Thaksin Shinawatra and Hun Sen in Cambodia -- and their families are openly warring against each other over public betrayals, lies, threats, and leaked confidential audio recordings. Thailand flew its U.S. F-16 warplanes and Swedish jet fighters across the frontier and repeatedly bombed Cambodia during their six-day border feud. China assists Cambodia's development projects, investments, and infrastructure and offers some military training and weaponry. Cambodia publicly presents itself as an innocent victim of Thai aggression, emphasizing that Phnom Penh is much poorer, less armed, and had no motive or desire to fight a war against wealthier, heavily armed Thailand. Thailand projects its case as the opposite, insisting Cambodians fired the first shots, and satellite imagery during the past three months above the disputed Emerald Triangle region can purportedly prove Cambodian troops were advancing, digging trenches, and "encroaching" on Thai soil. "The Cambodian military forces have violated the agreement by launching continuous and indiscriminate attacks on Thai territory across various areas along the border, even after the agreed ceasefire time had passed," the Thai government said on July 29. Bangkok detailed the violations in a report for Washington, Beijing, and Southeast Asian governments "who bore witness to yesterday's dialogue and negotiation, to inform them of Cambodia's lack of sincerity," the government said. During six days of aerial bombardments, artillery, mortar, and drone attacks, both sides repeatedly blamed the other for firing first or causing the most death and damage. More than 36 people, including 14 Thai soldiers, 14 Thai civilians and 8 Cambodian civilians, have perished since fighting escalated on July 24 along their disputed frontier, which is based on controversial 100-year-old French colonial maps dividing jungles, cliffs, and the scattered locations of revered ancient Hindu temple ruins. The impoverished zone includes the Emerald Triangle where military-reinforced northern Cambodia meets heavily fortified eastern Thailand and southern neutral Laos. "After the agreed ceasefire deadline, Cambodian forces continued to launch attacks into Thai territory at multiple locations. Such actions represent a deliberate violation of the ceasefire," the Royal Thai Armed Forces Headquarters said. "Thailand is therefore compelled to respond appropriately, exercising its legitimate right to self-defense in accordance with international law. Thailand has not initiated any aggression, but has acted solely to protect its sovereignty and ensure the safety of its people," the armed forces said. Phnom Penh denied Bangkok's charge and said Cambodia was adhering to the ceasefire despite their unresolved, century-old border dispute. After postponing their scheduled breakfast meeting on July 29 to quell the ceasefire's violations during the tropical morning, Thailand's 1st and 2nd Army Region commanders met their counterparts from Cambodia's Military Region 4 and 5, at two different border crossing checkpoints at lunch time. In a meeting in Thailand, commanders and their aides, all wearing camouflage uniforms, met face to face while seated opposite each other in a businesslike setting at a long table. A second meeting in O'Smach, Cambodia, was described as "informal" by Cambodian officials. A third meeting was held online with Thailand's Border Defense Command chief of Chanthaburi and Trat provinces chatting with Cambodia's Military Region 3 commander. They all agreed to stop shooting, stop reinforcing their troops, not to sneak into each other's territory, and halt all military movements along the border unless sick or injured troops need an ambulance to a hospital. The commanders also told each other there must be no firing at civilians, and both sides should choose quick action resolution teams who could communicate and coordinate directly with troops along the 500 miles of their curved border. Thailand repatriated the remains of a dozen Cambodian soldiers on July 28 at a temporarily opened border crossing. Arrangements need to be made to return additional dead and injured soldiers, and social media's vicious "meme wars" between Thai and Cambodian propaganda artists, satirists, and activists must not cause misunderstandings, they said. The commanders agreed to wait until Aug. 4 when a Thailand-Cambodia Joint Boundary Commission (JBC) meeting is scheduled to review the ceasefire and any violations. Both sides have accused the other of "war crimes" and breaking the Geneva Conventions, pointing at Thailand's use of U.S.-built F-16 warplanes and Swedish Gripen jets to bomb Cambodia, and for Cambodia's firing deadly, unguided rockets. The Royal Thai Air Force legally defended its aerial bombardments in a statement on July 29 reflecting on its "joint operations with the Royal Thai Army during 24-28 July 2025." "The Royal Thai Air Force deployed F-16 and Gripen fighter aircraft to conduct precision air strikes on hostile military targets that posed threats to Thailand's national security," the air force said. "The operations focused on neutralizing weapons depots and military active command centers. Missions were conducted both during day and night, and battle damages were assessed using integrated intelligence and modern surveillance technologies. "Particular deployment of air power was carried out in full compliance with international law, based on the nation's inherent right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations charter. The Royal Thai Air Force strictly adhered to the principles of proportionality, necessity, and clear distinction between military and civilian targets," the air force said. On July 24, Senate President Hun Sen reportedly told Thailand not to 'boast of your superior military power, or think of invading,' because Cambodia was 'fully prepared for combat'. 'You will face the most severe retaliation,' Senate President Hun Sen said. 'We won't just resist, we will strike back.' Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, 47, wrote online: "The sooner the fighting stops, the sooner the affected people, especially the displaced, can return to their homes and resume their livelihoods. "At a time when the nation and our people are facing hardship, I may look a little older because of the gray hairs. Even if I look older and feel a little less strong than I did 10 years ago, my determination to face these challenges remains unwavering. "Let's wait until the army and people are safe, and the country has returned to peace -- then it won't be too late to dye my hair," the Cambodian prime minister said, according to Agence Kampuchea Presse. Bangkok insists all discussions about their disputed border remain between Thailand and Cambodia and confined to the JBC, with no outsiders deciding the issue. Cambodia however demands the bloodstained case be settled once and for all at the International Court of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands, which has ruled twice in Cambodia's favor, awarding it the coveted clifftop Preah Vihear temple ruins which are one of several crumbling stone architectural wonders in harm's way because of rocket attacks. Jungles, monsoon rain, mud, and steep cliffs have made survival along the border grueling for both armies and their countries' 200,000 residents who fled the zone, many of whom were eking out meager, subsistence lives on the scrubland's rice and rubber farms. Some weeping school children and sunburnt rice and rubber farmers crowded into their isolated villages' hand-built bunkers dug into the hard dirt. Others tied nylon cloth from their tractor or nearby tree to shield them from the sun and rain, and built campfires for cooking food in areas deemed safer from a direct hit. The summer heat enabled other evacuees to more comfortably shelter at Buddhist temples' outdoor pavilions and auditoriums, shaded by a roof of corrugated metal held up by cement pillars, where families clustered on straw mats amid plastic bags stuffed with necessities, bedding, clothes, and food, hoping to stay dry during brief monsoon thunderstorms. Troubling, unverified media has appeared online including a video supposedly showing a group of shouting Thai men beating a Cambodian man in an urban street, while a separate photograph showed men circling a hapless-looking person who was described as a Thai spy captured inside Cambodia. On July 28, Thailand's Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet appeared with mediating Malaysian leader Anwar Ibrahim, who hosted the ceasefire talks in Kuala Lumpur, sitting alongside U.S. and Chinese diplomats. Within hours, Mr. Phumtham and Mr. Manet agreed to an "immediate and unconditional ceasefire" effective July 28 midnight local time. "Up to now, Thai soldiers continue to aggressively encroach on Cambodian territory, despite phone conversations between the leaders of both countries with U.S. President Donald Trump," said the Phnom Penh Post. President Trump posted on social media on July 26: "Many people are being killed in this War, but it very much reminds me of the Conflict between Pakistan and India, which was brought to a successful halt." Thailand wants "an immediate Ceasefire, and PEACE," he wrote, linking a ceasefire to his tariff negotiations with the two financially strapped countries which depend on keeping their exports to the U.S. inexpensive without Mr. Trump's heightened import taxes. "I am now going to relay that message back to the Prime Minister of Cambodia. After speaking to both Parties, Ceasefire, Peace, and Prosperity seem to be a natural." During July, landmines injured several Thai troops who were described by Thai officials as walking on the accepted Thai side of the border. The Phnom Penh Post however said in an editorial: "The Thai military's recent allegations -- especially those made by Lt. Gen. Boonsin Phadkhang of the 2nd Army Region that Cambodia deliberately laid new landmines resulting in injuries to Thai soldiers -- are not only unfounded but recklessly irresponsible. "No credible investigation has been made public, no transparent evidence has been presented," the paper said. Bangkok said the landmines were new, Russian-made, and recently secretly planted by Phnom Penh. Thailand hosts the Pentagon's biggest international military exercise in Asia, Cobra Gold, each year. Chinese play a broader role in Cambodia, funding huge investments, offering some training to Cambodia's military, and developing the country's infrastructure including ports and shipping canals. Thailand's heavily financed, 360,000 active-duty army, air force, and navy total three times impoverished Cambodia's military forces. Bangkok's military is backed by U.S. and other foreign training and weaponry including in the sky where Thai pilots easily dominate Phnom Penh due to Cambodia's lack of an effective warfighting air force. In addition to Thailand's U.S. F-16s warplanes, older F-5s, Cobra attack helicopters, and Black Hawk transport choppers, Bangkok also wields about a dozen Swedish Gripen fighter jets. Thailand's weapons and equipment also come from Israel, Russia, and elsewhere including 60 Chinese VT-4 tanks which augment dozens of older U.S. tanks. Thailand's 600 artillery pieces far outnumber and out-shoot Cambodia's much weaker artillery strength, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Cambodia depends on its aging stockpile of about 200 Chinese and Soviet tanks and a few dozen Chinese and Soviet helicopters. Richard S. Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia since 1978, and winner of Columbia University's Foreign Correspondents' Award. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books, "Rituals. Killers. Wars. & Sex. -- Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka & New York" and "Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers & Freaks" are available at
Scoop
9 hours ago
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Call For U. S. President Donald Trump To Rescind His Aggressive Rhetoric On Russia
President Donald Trump of the United States of America is playing the game of the oppressor billionaire with the peace, security and existence of the human race. It has come to our notice that the US president in his usual aggressive rhetoric has threatened to attack Russia's nuclear sites with an ultimatum issued if Moscow fails to yield to a ceasefire with the Nazis enclave in Ukraine. This is insulting, insincere and disrespectful statements emanating from the President of the United States of America. To the New African Charter International (NACI), there is no substitute to peace and security, and the two cannot be achieved through threatening the world's most powerful military nation, that is Russia. It was reported worldwide that President Trump has issued a 10-12 days provocative ultimatum to attack Russia's nuclear arsenals if Moscow fails to yield to the desires of the Nazis enclave in the Ukraine, for a ceasefire on the Ukrainian conflict. Earlier, Trump and its western European allies had imposed sanctions that are designed to kill Russians, cause long-term physical and mental injury, and damage the Russian economy. The New African Charter International critically observes and unequivocally condemns Trump's vile, unwarranted and harmful rhetoric regarding Russia's Special Military Operation in Ukraine, which has become headlines in the news and social media. In general, we forcefully oppose the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation's (NATO) efforts at escalation of tension between the alliance and Russia over the Nazis enclave in Ukraine. NACI fully supports alternative efforts to NATO's neo-Nazis agenda of domination and remote control; and stand in solidarity with Russia and the Russian people. We wish to recognize the remarkable courage of the Russian people for rallying their support behind their leaders, especially the youths, who took to the streets recently, to vent out their grievances towards NATO members who want to be seen as hostile forces against Russia, and who aided also the Ukrainian Nazis enclave's evil attack on Russia's territory, dubbed: 'Operation Spider Web'. We want to make it very clear to Mr Trump and NATO that their provocative and disrespectful mentality towards Russia is a source of profound concern for the entire global community. We unequivocally denounce these unnecessary escalation, red tagging, hatreds, inflammatory and violent statements, which constitute grave danger to the peace, security, and stability of the global community, with far reaching consequences. No Russian territory would be the Hiroshima or Nagasaki of the 21st century; Russia is not Libya, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Nigeria, the Sahel region, Sri Lanka, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo or Mozambique where leaked documents have revealed the role of the US and NATO allies in the mass killings and cleansing campaign. Russia, like any other members-state of the United Nations reserves the right to defending its independent sovereignty and territorial integrity against any outside threats, no matter who would be the forces that may be behind such an evil agenda. Again, we want to warn the US and NATO to abandon their dangerous nuclear war project on Russia as such plan would lead the whole world into a devastating catastrophe. Russia, if attack as Donald Trump is threatening to do, will spare no effort to resist any persistent endeavours to undermine its peace, stability, independent sovereignty and territorial integrity. Trump's latest threats and offensive and unacceptable statements have gone a long way to violate Article 2(4) of the UN Charter. Its represents also, acts of rhetoric aggression as defined under General Assembly resolution 3314 of 1974. We are also deeply concerned about the reported transfer of US nuclear arsenals to the soil in Britain. We urge countries with ties to the US to uphold international law by opposing this dangerous expansion of the Ukrainian conflict. Mr Trump's aggressive rhetoric on Russia is more regrettable because it came at a when the civilized international community is confronted also with a plethora of challenges, including climate change and biodiversity loss, disaster risks, the ongoing genocide and cleansing in the Palestinian Gaza and other occupied lands and territories in the Middle-east. Mr Trump's dangerous threats and ill-intention agenda to attack Russia's nuclear arsenals must be condemned in the strongest possible terms by the United Nations and all its members. The global community should rise to the challenges posed by My Trump's nuclear war threats. The global community should rise to the challenges and act decisively and effectively to ease the dangerous and worrisome situation. In its cherished history as a peaceful sovereign nation, Russia has never provoked conflict, and any response to Trump's latest aggressive rhetoric would only mean a just response to unjust attacks, and to ensure peace and stability, and to send a clear message to the modern Nazis, who are hell-bent on undermining the peace, security and stability of Russia. And as a free, sovereign and independent nation, Russia reserves the right to determine the most appropriate measures to safeguard its security and the well-being of its people. As we navigate this disturbing mirror, it is warranting to address the concerns of Russia and that the legitimate grievances of the Russian people should not be misconstrued as a weapon for violent political agenda. Trump's aggressive rhetoric on Russia therefore poses grave threat to the existence of humanity. We Call on NATO leaders and politicians to distance themselves from Trump's nuclear war project; to stop supporting or sending provocative language that can intensify existing tension in the Ukrainian conflict. We call on African governments and leaders to any threat of the use of nuclear weapons anywhere, support peace and promote understanding in dealing with issues that posed danger to the existence of the global community. We are closely monitoring the situation and efforts at diverting nuclear confrontation amongst the world's nuclear powers. The legacy of the 1945 decision by the United States to reign atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki must not be forgotten, and efforts towards the peaceful end of the Ukrainian crisis must be given priority. The New African Charter International does not promote violence, but support peace, justice and stands against all those who seek to destabilize other nations and erode the rights and freedoms of citizens.
NZ Herald
14 hours ago
- NZ Herald
Countries are making promises to Trump, while leaving the difficult to achieve detail for later
'This is new, and generally that's because in trade agreements you want things that are clear and enforceable,' said David Goldwyn, a former US diplomat and Energy Department official. 'These energy commitments are neither clear nor necessarily enforceable. They're more aspirational, political encouragements.' The European Union, for example, committed to purchase US$750 billion in US energy products — including crude oil, natural gas and other petroleum derivatives — over three years. On an annual basis, that would amount to more than three times the amount the bloc bought last year from the US. The EU has been buying more American gas since Russia, previously a big supplier, attacked Ukraine in 2022, and there is appetite to buy more. But purchasing US$250b a year would require the bloc to use the US as essentially its only supplier. 'They would have to not buy from anybody else, and that would just be an enormous amount of dependency on one country, whether it's us or anybody else,' said Jason Feer, an analyst at the energy and ship brokerage Poten and Partners. 'And the whole premise of modern energy systems, energy supply, is you always want some diversity.' Conversely, US$250b is around 80% of the total amount that the US exported to the entire world in 2025, according to a ClearView Energy Partners analysis of federal data. Plants are coming online that will double the country's natural gas export capacity by 2030, and stocks in export companies like Cheniere and Venture Global climbed after the deal was announced. In the near term, sending significantly more to the EU may mean sending less to customers elsewhere in the world. Even if these quantities made economic sense, the EU cannot compel private companies in its member countries to buy so much. And the US Government doesn't have the power to tell its oil and gas companies where to sell. The challenge of holding a government to a purchase commitment made in a trade deal became apparent in Trump's first term. He persuaded China, an economy tightly steered by the Government, to agree to buy certain amounts of energy and agricultural goods. Most of those targets were not met, and there were no consequences. Typical trade pacts have protocols that allow either side to enforce pledges like commitments to buy energy; they usually even lay out remedies for violations. None of those exist in Trump's agreements. When asked how the US would react if the EU didn't meet its energy purchase target after three years, a White House official said that the response would be higher tariffs. It is not yet clear what the trade agreement with the US will mean for the EU's ability to meet its climate targets. A 2021 law requires member nations to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. In the short term, more gas could help with that by supplanting coal. Purchasing too much gas could end up squeezing out clean power sources such as wind and solar. Before the trade deal, the continent's overall gas demand was expected to decline in the coming years. 'It is possible that it would displace some deployment of renewables,' said Joseph Majkut, director of the energy security and climate change programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. 'But the reality is that the EU has very firm climate commitments enshrined in law.' The parties could, potentially, hit US$750b with tricky accounting. The EU members could purchase tankers full of oil or gas but not use it all and instead resell it to other buyers around the world. They could also make long-term purchase commitments that look like very large numbers when they're announced, but in practice are realised over, say, 20 years. 'To do that involves using something we respectfully call political maths,' said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners. 'Some of the best tools of diplomacy involve ambiguity.' So far, the EU's energy purchase commitment is as specific as Trump's trade deals have got. The framework for Japan, for example, is much more vague. That leaves even more room for interpretation. A White House fact sheet on the Japan deal trumpets a 'major expansion' of US energy exports, and says the US$550b in US investment that Japan pledged would be partly focused on 'energy infrastructure and production'. That is probably a reference to the proposed US$44b infrastructure project that would bring gas from the North Slope of Alaska to an export terminal. From there, it could be shipped to Asia. Right now, however, there are cheaper sources available on America's gulf coast that are connected to gas fields with many years of supply left. It's also not clear how much value there is in signing multidecade purchase agreements when Japan has also committed to reducing its consumption of fossil fuels. The same logic applies for South Korea. It began to buy natural gas from the US in 2017, when the country was trying to phase out nuclear energy. Signing long-term agreements didn't work out as well as hoped: An explosion at a gas terminal in Texas in 2022 interrupted supply, leaving less gas available to buy and raising prices sharply. That's why Michelle Kim, an energy specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, argues that buying gas as needed, rather than committing to a multiyear deal with US exporters, would give South Korea more flexibility as it managed declining demand for gas. 'It's not a good and wise decision to make another long-term contract,' Kim said. If the US presses ahead to drastically increase its exports, there could also be ramifications for America's own energy market. As long as enough infrastructure exists to move it around, fuel generally flows to the highest bidder. With more gas going overseas and powering data centres for artificial intelligence, domestic prices are likely to rise, said Aneesh Prabhu, a managing director at S&P Global Ratings. That impact could worsen in the coming years, since Trump and congressional Republicans cut subsidies for wind and solar deployment passed during the Biden Administration. 'Because of the loss of tax credits, or at least a significant erosion of it, you could have a slowdown in renewables, which means there would be more draw on gas,' Prabhu said. This article originally appeared in The New York Times. Written by: Lydia DePillis and Rebecca F. Elliott Photograph by: Tierney L. Cross ©2025 THE NEW YORK TIMES
