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The Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Stayed Tame in May

The Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Stayed Tame in May

Price pressures have stayed relatively muted in recent months, surprising economists and policymakers who expected U.S. inflation to have flared up by now because of President Trump's tariffs. New data on Friday confirmed that this trend continued in May, but it provided little comfort to those bracing for inflation to reaccelerate this summer.
Consumer prices, as measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, rose just 0.1 percent last month even as the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index ticked up slightly to 2.3 percent compared to the same time last year.
That was a step up from April's 2.1 percent annual pace and brought the 12-month index further from the Fed's 2 percent target.
'Core' prices, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, also rose 0.2 percent. Compared to the same time last year, that index is now up 2.7 percent.
The data, which was released by the Commerce Department, is being closely watched by the officials at the central bank, who have become increasingly divided over when and by how much to lower interest rates this year.
The fissures stem from differing opinions about how significantly Mr. Trump's tariffs will stoke inflation and the resilience of the labor market, which has shown signs of cooling.
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Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez are one of the richest married couples. Here's how the ultrawealthy do prenups.
Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez are one of the richest married couples. Here's how the ultrawealthy do prenups.

Yahoo

time27 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez are one of the richest married couples. Here's how the ultrawealthy do prenups.

With Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez now married, they're likely to have a complex prenup. Lawyers and wealth management experts outlined the prenup process for the superrich. Business control, property ownership, and trusts are just some of the questions prenups tackle. Hindsight is 20/20 — especially when hindsight is worth $38 billion. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and MacKenzie Scott, his first wife, got married without a prenup (in 1993, before Bezos started Amazon). Scott received roughly $38 billion in Amazon shares in the settlement, making her one of the world's richest women. On Friday, Bezos got married again, this time to helicopter pilot and former journalist Lauren Sánchez. Experts in family law and wealth management told Business Insider that the couple is almost certain to have a complex prenup. Bezos is, after all, worth more than $200 billion today. A representative for Bezos didn't respond to a request for comment from BI about whether the couple has a prenup. Anne Paape, the managing director and head of wealth strategy at Cresset Capital, a multi-family office for entrepreneurs and multi-generational families of wealth, said prenups are generally becoming more common and are sometimes even mandated in family trusts for the ultrawealthy. Prenups begin with both people fully disclosing their financial assets and debts, she said. Besides family, they can also involve everyone from business partners and tax attorneys to luxury realtors and aviation experts who help appraise homes and private jets, said Brooke Summerhill, a divorce financial consultant who primarily works with ultra-high net worth clients. "It's not the clients making a lot of these decisions, it's their team helping them understand what those decisions are and making those decisions with them," she told BI. Paape doesn't know the details of Bezos' potential prenup but said his situation isn't entirely unique: Many superrich weddings mark second or third marriages for at least one spouse, often one whose assets have changed considerably since their first time tying the knot. "He will absolutely have protection against anything that he could," Summerhill said, adding that he likely won't let his pre-marriage assets co-mingle with Sánchez's assets. The more money you have, the more potential prenup headaches you'll have, especially when it comes to business interests and properties. Wealthy clients tend to have properties and business interests around the globe, making it harder to ensure compliance with divorce and death laws in various jurisdictions. Many entrepreneurs like Bezos are focused on insulating their businesses in the event of a divorce or death. Most don't want to risk giving an ex-partner enough stock to have a say in how the company runs, Paape told BI. "You could try to compensate for keeping that off the table," Paape said. "What else if you were to get divorced? What other resources could you provide to that person?" Clauses safeguarding the appreciation of assets during a marriage are also key for wealthy clients, Summerhill said. If the couple ever divorces, it's not unlikely that Sánchez would get a lump sum, Amazon shares, and some real estate, according to Summerhill and Raymond Hekmat, a family law attorney in Beverly Hills who primarily writes prenups. But a marriage can also end in death, and that's where a death clause can come in. As Summerhill put it, this "prevents the surviving spouse from claiming a bigger portion of that deceased person's separate property." A surviving spouse commonly receives a lump sum or life insurance payout upon their spouse's death, she said, but a last will and testament may take precedent over the prenup. Prenups for the ultrawealthy have repercussions beyond the couple, whether it's about who takes over the family empire or gets the keys to the Hamptons home. "There's more people that care about the resolution of that breakup, whether it's divorce or death," Paape said. "It's business partners, it's employees, it's charities you support, it's children and grandchildren." She said trusts "are a no-brainer " for children of the ultrarich and that many provisions deal with inherited property or business ownership. Bezos shares four children with Scott, and Sánchez has three kids. Hekmat said all the prenups he draws up have a confidentiality provision, and some can include social media restrictions. "In the event of a breakup, you can't disparage the other party or discuss the prenup in any way with the public, and there could be penalties involved," he said. Prenups can also include sunset clauses, which say that some provisions or even the full agreement expires after a certain period of time. Some people may choose to change certain provisions and become more generous after they've been with their spouse for a while, Paape said. Hekmat said that even with prenups, couples risk messy legal and financial fights down the line. Proclaimed love and devotion aside, he kept his advice for the Bezoses of the world simple. "My bottom line for billionaires is don't get married." Have a tip or a story to share about your own experiences with a prenup? Contact these reporters via email at atecotzky@ or sjackson@ or on Signal at alicetecotzky.05. Use a personal email address and a nonwork device; here's our guide to sharing information securely. Read the original article on Business Insider

Live updates: It's go time for Senate on Trump's megabill. Do they have the votes?
Live updates: It's go time for Senate on Trump's megabill. Do they have the votes?

USA Today

time32 minutes ago

  • USA Today

Live updates: It's go time for Senate on Trump's megabill. Do they have the votes?

Senate leadership is hoping to move forward passing the bill over the weekend, getting one step closer to meeting Trump's self-imposed July 4 deadline. WASHINGTON − President Donald Trump's package of legislative priorities − stuffed with tax cuts, Medicaid reforms and border security funding − heads into the home stretch in the Senate amid uncertainty it can reach the finish line. The Senate is set to launch an hours-long debate June 28 that should culminate with a vote in which Democrats are all expected to vote no. The question for Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota, is whether enough Republicans will support their version to send it back to the House. "We'll find out," Thune said of the final vote anticipated June 29. If successful, the House would have to vote on the Senate changes in order to reach Trump's desk by his self-imposed deadline of July 4. The Senate has trimmed the House version from about 1,100 pages to 940 − and still faces votes on what are expected to be dozens of amendments. The success of Trump's domestic agenda for tax cuts and border security hangs in the balance. Republican approval of the spending blueprint would allow a majority of the 100-member Senate to approve all of Trump's priorities included in it through legislation later in the year, rather than needing 60 votes to overcome a filibuster for each measure. Here's what we know about the legislative package: What is in the bill? The largest provisions in the legislation would extend expiring tax cuts and create a few new ones, and a dramatic increasing in spending on border security. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, a Republican holdout on the bill, said he wouldn't vote for the bill unless the debt limit gets a separate vote. But Republican leaders want to keep the unpopular vote within the overall package. −Bart Jansen What's not in the Senate version of the bill? Republican support in the Senate waned after Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough ruled several significant provisions would have to be removed to avoid a filibuster. Republicans removed provisions to curb environmental regulations; restrict federal judges' powers; bulk up immigration enforcement; and cut funding from a consumer protection agency. MacDonough also ruled against provisions that aimed to reduce Medicaid spending on health care programs for undocumented immigrants. −Bart Jansen What does Trump say about the Senate version of the bill? The Trump administration 'strongly supports' the Senate version of the bill, in a White House Office of Management and Budget statement June 28. The statement isn't intended to favor the Senate version over the House version on any particular provision, but to signal Trump would sign it if approved by Congress. The two-page statement highlighted provisions for tax cuts, border security, energy and defense. 'President Trump is committed to keeping his promises, and failure to pass this bill would be the ultimate betrayal," the statement said. −Bart Jansen

Even More Bad News For Younger Workers: More Unemployment, Less Money
Even More Bad News For Younger Workers: More Unemployment, Less Money

Forbes

time33 minutes ago

  • Forbes

Even More Bad News For Younger Workers: More Unemployment, Less Money

unemployment line, people out of work looking for a job A few days ago, I wrote about 10 college degrees with high unemployment for the recently graduated (ages 22 to 27). The data, presented by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, was from 2023 when the unemployment rate was 3.8% and some of the highest rates of unemployment were among people with STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) degrees. Some of the examples that had upwards of double the overall unemployment rate were physics (7.8%), computer engineering (7.5%), computer science (6.1%), chemistry (6.1%), and information systems and management (5.6%). As they grow up, young adults repeatedly hear that these 'safe' studies lead to plentiful, good-paying employment. What they don't hear — although likely have a growing sense of given common comments on social media — is the truth of their being fed with a load of bunk. There's more truth in additional New York Fed data about how 22-to-27-year-olds are faring. Start with the distribution of annual wages for recent college graduates. This data runs from 1990 through 2024 and is in the form of constant dollars to allow for a direct comparison that accounts for inflation. The graph below shows the data. The grey shaded area shows the 25th to 75th percentile around the bachelor's degree median. Changes in incomes of people 22 to 27 In 1990, those with a bachelor's degree had a median wage of $56,642. The 25th percentile made $43,216 and the 75th percentile wage was $72,027. The high school diploma only median wage was $40,815. Jump to 2024. The bachelor's degree median wage was $60,000, with a 25th percentile of $43,000 and a 75th percentile of $80,000. The high school diploma wage was $40,000. Over the 34 year span, only the bachelor's degree group saw income growth. At the 75th percentile, it was 11%. At the median, it was 5.9%. The 25th percentile showed a roughly 0.5% drop. For high school only, the difference was -5.6%. The college-educated age range among the three points — 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile — saw at most an 11% increase over the 34 years. However, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator shows that it took $2.36 at the end of 2024 to match the buying power of $1 at the end of 1990. That's 136% inflation, or general increase in the costs of living, compared to the 11% for the top paid in the sample. Can't afford a home or health insurance? It's a marvel people from 22 to 27 can afford a coffee or piece of avocado toast. Now for unemployment, with the graph below, also from the New York Fed. Unemployment rates over time In March 2025, the latest data on the chart, the overall unemployment rate was 4.0%. For all college graduates, it was 2.7%. Recent college graduates, 5.8%. And for all young workers, 6.9%. Over time, the all-college graduates group had the lowest unemployment rate. Then there were some changes starting just before the pandemic. All college graduates started getting a higher unemployment rate than all workers. All young workers still had the highest unemployment rates. Again, the promise of a future for dedication to, and later high expense of, a college education starts sounding like, if not an empty promise, one that is quickly leaking. No wonder, younger adults aren't reaching the same milestones as older generations.

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