Cardiff City's actual valuation and the huge sums Vincent Tan would need to write off if sold

Wales Online

3 days ago

Cardiff City's actual valuation and the huge sums Vincent Tan would need to write off if sold
A consortium led by Gareth Bale is keen on buying Cardiff City
Cardiff City owner Vincent Tan
(Image: Getty Images )
Gareth Bale's interest in Cardiff City has generated a fair amount of excitement among Bluebirds fans, many of whom will still be coming to terms with the club's devastating relegation from the Championship last season.
Rightly or wrongly, there's a growing belief within the fanbase that a change of ownership is needed if Cardiff is to live up to its potential, but current owner Vincent Tan has already publicly insisted he remains committed to the club - and to getting them out of the third tier at the first time of asking.
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The interest from Bale and co has nevertheless unsurprisingly captured the imagination of supporters. But if a sale is to happen to anyone, it will be under the say-so of Tan, whose investment over the years has deepened the connection between the two parties. Join the Cardiff City breaking news and top stories WhatsApp community
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The ongoing dispute with Nantes on the back of the Emiliano Sala tragedy is likely to have some impact, but there are broader issues at play.
As football finance expert Kieran Maguire explains, if Tan is to leave, he will likely have to accept he will be walking away with a considerable loss on his investment.
"There's no doubt that Vincent Tan has been a very benevolent owner," Maguire told WalesOnline. "He has funded the losses of the club, and since taking over the club in 2010, the club has lost over £200m in that period.
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"He's taken it all on the chin and provided huge amounts of funding to allow the club to try and be competitive. He might have now reached the point where he's not enjoying it any more. He might have other plans for his money.
"But he's not going to get his money back," he continued. "As an experienced owner he's going to have to acknowledge that. There are many people that have walked away from football clubs with their fingers burned. It's a brutal industry.
"He's written off some loans already. The latest loan figure is £117m outstanding. It's highly unlikely he'll get that back in League One."
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Just how much of those losses will be passed on to Tan's valuation of the club isn't entirely clear at this stage. Clearly the view is that an offer simply too good to refuse would be required if a new era is to be ushered in at Cardiff City Stadium.
However, the market value of the club is, Maguire explains, likely to be somewhat lower than what Tan might be hoping for.
"I know a League One club that was sold last year that went for around about two times its revenue. The revenue for Cardiff next season is probably going to be something like £15m in League One.
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"If he sells it for £30m, I don't know what the situation is with the stadium, but that wouldn't be a bad price. He might be able to squeeze a little bit more if the stadium's thrown in. But the stadium loses money. Football stadiums are only open about 25 times a year. Then you've got the cost of maintenance, the cost of insurance, the day-to-day costs.
"I think Orient were sold for less than £20m and was without the stadium as that's owned by a third party. But they're a London club and that includes a London premium as far as the price is concerned.
"But I can see no logical reason for someone to pay £200m for a club in League One. Newcastle went for £300m with a 50,000 capacity stadium and in the Premier League. That was four years ago and I'm not denying there's been inflation since then. But even so. Wrexham are being quoted at $350m, but the value in Wrexham is not in the football club it's in the owners.
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"If Cardiff are continuing to lose the money they have been losing, which I think works out at more than £200k a week in each of the last five seasons, then he's going to be losing another £200k a week for another year if he doesn't sell the club.
"So there's a case for saying 'get out and just cut your losses'. If he gets £30m-£35m that's actually not a bad deal in today's market."
The proposed deal is believed to have received backing from American investors, with members of the Storch family reportedly heavily involved.
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Maguire believes the stadium, fanbase and transport connections all make Cardiff an attractive proposition to investors on paper, and while Bale is unlikely to be pumping in much of his own money, this interest falls in line with what's been an ongoing pattern within the EFL.
"There has been an idea in recent years of bringing in someone that's effectively going to be front of house in terms of the deal," Maguire continued. "We've seen that at Birmingham with Tom Brady, we've seen it at Wrexham with Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, and we've seen it at Swansea with Luka Modric.
"There is a view that you will be able to attract other potential investors. You might also be in a stronger position to negotiate with sponsors as not only are you sponsoring Cardiff City Football Club. It's Gareth Bale's Cardiff City Football Club.
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"The reason it's become popular is largely due to Wrexham. It's been a wildly popular story and has become hugely profitable. They're buying a club for around £2m that is now quoted as being around £250m. They've probably got first mover advantage there, and it's a difficult model to replicate.
"Birmingham have had some success with Brady, but that's a different dimension. We're seeing one or two American sports people involved in the ownership of Liverpool, but that doesn't seem to have moved the dial there.
"But I think we'll see it again until it's deemed to be a failure."