Two brokers vie to be Asia's Robinhood as Hong Kong expands crypto support

CNBC

6 hours ago

Stock analysts are getting excited about the potential boost to Asian crypto trading after Hong Kong's stablecoin bill takes effect on Friday. Stablecoins are virtual assets that reference government-issued, or fiat, currencies. Hong Kong's bill formalizes the process for financial companies to issue and manage the virtual assets, similar to the U.S. GENIUS Act . For now, Morgan Stanley analysts expect the main application for stablecoins centers around crypto trading, and say it could attract more institutional investors to the asset class. They view online brokerage Futu Holdings as the best play, and rate it overweight with a $164.25 price target. Citi analysts prefer its rival Up Fintech , also known as Tiger Brokers, and upgraded it to buy from neutral, according to a report published late on July 21. They maintained a neutral rating on Futu, citing the stock's recent run higher. Both companies, which listed in the U.S. in 2019 before Robinhood went public, operate online brokerages for trading stocks and cryptocurrencies. They have their roots in mainland China, but have evolved to focus more on Hong Kong and Singapore due to Beijing's capital controls and crypto bans. The crypto trading market in Hong Kong and Singapore is $640 billion large, even after accounting for competition from unlicensed mainstream crypto exchanges, the Citi analysts said. That positions Up Fintech and Futu to potentially see gains similar to those of Robinhood, the analysts said. They said a major support for Robinhood's stock surge in the last several months is the company's crypto trading revenue – the segment doubled in the first quarter from a year ago, far faster than Robinhood's 50% growth in overall revenue during that time. Crypto has also grown from 3% of Robinhood's total revenue to 21% between 2020 and 2024, the Citi report said. Robinhood is set to release earnings Wednesday local time. Up Fintech and Futu have not yet disclosed the date of their next earnings releases. The Citi analysts raised their price target on both stocks: to $14 from $9.50 for Up Fintech, and to $176 from $113 for Futu. Part of their additional optimism on Up Fintech comes from possible business opportunities with Avenir Group, an investment firm linked to the founder of bitcoin trading exchange Huobi. Avenir acquired a 5.9% stake in the stock in late April. "We see potential upside for TIGR if i) Avenir Group could use TIGR as the designated crypto exchange for OTC trading; ii) if Avenir Group could potentially use TIGR as its designated custodian bank, paying TIGR a higher custodian fee to help support TIGR's crypto biz development," Citi said. To be sure, there are many differences between the U.S. crypto environment and that of Hong Kong. In contrast to Beijing's more conservative stance in mainland China, Hong Kong, as a special administrative region of the country, has become the nation's test bed for remaining globally competitive in finance. Both Citi and Morgan Stanley analysts expect Hong Kong's stablecoin support to initially focus more on how the Chinese yuan can be used for international payments. But the region's bigger ambitions remain clear as U.S. President Donald Trump's son Eric is slated to headline a bitcoin conference in Hong Kong next month. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.