Gauging the MLB trade market: Rich in center, poor at 2nd and short, and lacking any aces

New York Times

4 days ago

Sean Murphy remains one of baseball's best at his position. Well above-average at the plate with strong defensive metrics behind it, Murphy is a rarity in today's game: an everyday, all-star-caliber catcher who's under contract for the next three seasons. He might not be the best player available at the trade deadline, but he certainly could be a unique one.
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The market of available bats and arms will come into greater focus as the July 31 trade deadline approaches, but the potential for strengths and weaknesses is already apparent. There seem to be a lot of mid-rotation arms, but not many middle-of-the-order sluggers or middle-of-the-infield defenders. And there certainly aren't many catchers.
Murphy has the seventh-highest fWAR among big league catchers — very close to being tied for fifth — and the catchers ahead of him aren't going anywhere. But the Atlanta Braves' disappointing season, along with the arrival of rookie Drake Baldwin, makes Murphy a reasonable trade candidate owed $15 million each of the next three seasons. The next-best catcher available could be Jose Trevino of the Cincinnati Reds, who's No. 2 on the depth chart and worth less than half Murphy's WAR. For teams in need of everyday help behind the plate, there's one really good catcher and perhaps not much else.
It's like that at other positions, too. A lot of this, but not a lot of that. Two weeks before the trade deadline, these seem to be the relative strengths and weaknesses of the market.
Even if Alex Bregman is unlikely to move, this trade market should still include Ryan O'Hearn, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor and Ryan McMahon. All are corner infielders who can make a difference. O'Hearn is an All-Star, Suarez is on track for 40-plus homers, Naylor remains a well above-average hitter, and McMahon is a good defender with some pop. And the market at first base goes even deeper with Carlos Santana and Nathaniel Lowe as Gold Glove winners who have offensive value, and Josh Bell could be a buy-low candidate with double-digit home run potential down the stretch. Ramon Urías and Yoan Moncada could also help a needy team at third base.
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Teams desperate for help at second base or shortstop might have trouble trading for even a replacement-level player. Unless the Twins dangle Willi Castro, the best middle infielder on the trade market might be Ozzie Albies, who's having a disappointing season for the Braves and doesn't even rate as a top 30 second baseman by FanGraphs WAR. One of the Urías brothers — either Ramon or Luis — might be the next-best option at second, but they've typically been utility players rather than everyday guys. Angels infielder Luis Rengifo is having a negative WAR season, but in this market, might some team take a flyer and hope for two months of offensive resurgence?
As for shortstops, the only one that's come even close to making our Big Board is Isiah Kiner-Falefa, another utility type who's been at least a sound defender with enough contact ability to have some offensive value.
This is especially true if the Red Sox were to move Jarren Duran — a left fielder who's capable of playing center — but even without him as a headliner, the center fielder market could include Cedric Mullins, Harrison Bader, Alek Thomas and Luis Robert. None of these have been massive bats, but Bader is having a resurgent season at the plate and offers above-average offense with some power. Mullins and Thomas have been above replacement level, too, and Robert is an immense talent that might be worth a gamble despite his awful 2025 numbers. Each of these center fielders has a different skillset that might fit a different team.
Again, Duran would be a headliner for teams looking to acquire impact in an outfield corner, and his teammate Wilyer Abreu would also provide legitimate impact, but if the Red Sox don't move either of their left-handed corner outfielders, the best bet on the trade market is probably Taylor Ward of the Angels, and even he's not top 25 in wRC+ or fWAR among big league outfielders. The lack of a can't-miss outfield bat could raise the profile of Bryan Reynolds, who has almost $80 million remaining on his contract and started this season slow — he still has a negative WAR for the year — but he has a solid track record and had a better month of June. Even Adolis Garcia, known for his power, has been a below-average hitter the past two seasons.
Given such limited supply, quality role players like Ramon Laureano, Austin Hays, Randal Grichuk, Jesus Sanchez and trade deadline staple Tommy Pham could also see their value rise. (Considering Marcell Ozuna has played two games in the outfield the past three years, we're assuming he's locked into a DH-only territory.).
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Are you looking to fill out your rotation to get you to October? Well, you've got a range of options, including three different varieties of Zachary. You can go with Zack Littell, Zach Eflin or eschew every baseball writer's hesitation after typing the first three letters there and go with Zac Gallen. (We should apologize to Littell here; his given name is, in fact, Zack and not Zachary.)
The point is, if you feel good about the top of your rotation but uneasy after that, there are plenty of choices here. Mitch Keller can be your No. 3 for a half-decade, Nick Martinez for eight weeks. Lucas Giolito, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Michael Soroka – they'd improve most every team's fourth- or fifth-starter situation.
You know which Zachary isn't available? The one who's as good as any pitcher in baseball in Zack Wheeler. And there's basically nobody in or even near Wheeler's class that you'd feel good about acquiring and penciling in to be a Game 1 or even Game 2 starter in October. Wheeler's old teammate, Seth Lugo, is probably the best pitcher who might move, while former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara might be the one with the highest ceiling in 2025 — if he can put it all together. Does Merrill Kelly change how you feel about your team in a short series?
Some of the biggest deadline moves ever have involved ace starting pitchers changing uniforms. Think Randy Johnson or CC Sabathia or David Price or David Price (again) or Max Scherzer. That ain't happening this year.
Of course, one alternative to aid a flagging rotation is to shorten games on the back end, and you might have better luck there this July. Interestingly, a lot of the best relief arms that could move have multiple years of team control.
David Bednar has shown 2024 to be an aberration; on a Pittsburgh team thinking of trading just about everyone, he looks like a sure bet to move. The Twins probably won't deal both Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, but either can change the way your team gets the final six outs of a playoff game. The Guardians should at least ponder moving Emmanuel Clase, given the strength they possess throughout their bullpen and the year-after-year weakness their offense remains.
Maybe your goals aren't as grand this deadline. Maybe all you want is a guy who helps alleviate the anxiety of seeing Shohei Ohtani or Bryce Harper or Kyle Tucker or Juan Soto coming to the plate in the seventh inning with a man on. Maybe all you want is a good lefty, and like a dozen of those guys move every deadline, right?
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Umm…
Aroldis Chapman and Reid Detmers are overqualified for this job description, and it would probably be a surprise if either were dealt this month. But beyond those two, there's not a lot to love on the lefty market. Texas' Hoby Milner, Pittsburgh's Caleb Ferguson, Minnesota's Danny Coulombe and Baltimore's Gregory Soto – you can tell we're reaching because we had to remind you which team they're all on this year – are probably the best of what might move. How good are you feeling with them opposite Freddie Freeman in a big spot?
(Top photo of Sean Murphy: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)