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USA Today
11 minutes ago
- USA Today
The Daily Money: Will Trump tax bill help or hurt you?
Good morning! It's Daniel de Visé with your Daily Money. President Donald Trump's tax bill could make future generations "worse off," no matter their income, according to a new report from the Penn Wharton Budget Model. Like prior analyses, these findings suggest most Americans would see tax cuts in the short run, just as Trump and fellow Republicans have advertised. Long-term, though, most people end up in the red. Here's the math. Should church group return Target donation? Target has donated $300,000 to the National Baptist Convention. Now, some critics are calling on the church organization to return the gift. The calls come from activists who launched a boycott against Target over its rollback of DEI efforts. Will the donation be returned? Trump attacks Fed chair again on interest rates In his stinging monthslong campaign to badger Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell into lowering interest rates, President Trump has relied on a variety of arguments. Most recently, he has cited a claim that the Fed's refusal to slash rates is costing the federal government hundreds of billions of dollars a year in interest payments on its debt. Is Trump right? 📰 More stories you shouldn't miss 📰 About The Daily Money Each weekday, The Daily Money delivers the best consumer and financial news from USA TODAY, breaking down complex events, providing the TLDR version, and explaining how everything from Fed rate changes to bankruptcies impacts you. Daniel de Visé covers personal finance for USA Today.
CNBC
11 minutes ago
- CNBC
What Wall Street is saying about the stronger-than-expected jobs report
Wednesday's private payrolls report from ADP had the Street on edge heading into Thursday's release of the government' nonfarm payrolls number. Investors can breathe easier now. The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, topping a Dow Jones consensus forecast of 110,000. The unemployment rate also ticked down to 4.1%, while economists had expected an increase to 4.3%. The numbers came one day after ADP reported that U.S. private payrolls decreased by 33,000 jobs last month, raising concern that the government's figures would reflect a much more dire economic picture. Stock futures popped Thursday after 8:30 a.m. ET but quickly pared those gains. S & P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were last up around 0.1%, along with those tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Gains were likely capped because the positive report lowers the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. Here's what some strategists and investors on Wall Street had to say about the latest U.S. employment report: Joe Gaffoglio, President and CEO at Mutual of America Capital Management: "The June jobs report continues to demonstrate resilience across the labor market, even as certain sectors such as manufacturing continue to lag. The unemployment rate is holding steady at 4.1%, and real average hourly earnings for employees experienced its largest increase of the year." Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates at BMO: "Overall, it was a strong set of data that implies the Fed will remain on hold later this month, leaving rate cut expectations focused on the September FOMC meeting." Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial: "If businesses keep expanding payrolls like they've done so far this year, the Fed can comfortably sit in 'wait and see' mode at the upcoming policy meeting. Uncertainty around tariffs and trade have apparently not spooked businesses into shedding workers." Simon Dangoor, head of fixed income macro strategies at Goldman Sachs Asset Management: "Today's stronger jobs report confirms a still resilient U.S. labor market, defying, at least for now, the signs of weakness seen in some leading indicators. The FOMC's conviction that it should hold its wait-and-see stance while it braces for an acceleration in inflation over the summer will only be strengthened. But we still see a path to a resumption of the Fed's easing cycle later in the year should the summer acceleration in inflation prove more modest than expected." Allison Schrager, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, in a CNBC " Squawk Box " interview: "I feel like we keep looking for the shoe to drop, but we keep getting good reports. It's not just this employment report, it was also JOLTS. It's also inflation. And for right now, the economy looks pretty strong. It's still keeping on, keeping on, despite all this uncertainty, despite all this tariffs. I guess we can't explain it, but at the very least, I don't see how the Fed could justify cutting rates right now." Eric Merlis, co-head of global markets at Citizens: "The labor market remained resilient in June despite tariff uncertainty and elevated geopolitical concerns. Wages also proved stable and showed no signs of accelerating despite the improvement in the unemployment rate. The stability in labor conditions should give the Fed leeway to maintain its wait-and-see stance until it has greater clarity about how evolving policies may impact the economy." Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments: "The solid June jobs report confirms that the labor market remains resolute and slams the door shut on a July rate cut. Today's report saw a trifecta of positives that should send the labor bears back into hibernation: a drop in the unemployment rate, a solid beat on headline job creation vs. consensus and positive revisions to the prior two months. Softer average hourly earnings (wage) gains suggest that a wage-price inflationary spiral shouldn't be a near-term concern, setting up something resembling a goldilocks scenario." Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics: "Despite a 200,000 increase in the population, the labour force declined by 130,000 last month, suggesting that ICE raids may be keeping immigrants away from work. Paired with the 93,000 gain in the household measure of employment, this meant the unemployment rate fell back to 4.1% – its lowest since the start of the year. We expect this to be a running theme over the next few months, as lower immigration reduces the number of new jobs the economy needs to add in order to keep a lid on the unemployment rate." Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies: "We had thought that soft payroll data would open the door for a July rate cut, and an increased probability in market pricing for as many as 4 rate cuts in 2025. This data isn't enough to shift the consensus as it provides enough mixed details for investors and policymakers to cherry-pick supports for their pre-existing narratives. We take the overall view that the data is soft, but the market is correct to hold steady on pricing for rate cuts, especially since the CPI data due out on July 15 is likely to be firmer than what we have seen in recent months." Lara Castleton, U.S. head of portfolio construction and strategy at Janus Henderson Investors: "These numbers demonstrate economic resilience despite expectations for slowdowns on the backs of tariff and fiscal uncertainty. While many will not want to believe this solidifies a strong labor market, especially on the backs of a negative ADP print, what this print does solidify is the Fed does not have the data to contemplate a cut in July." Roger Ferguson, former Fed vice chair, on "Squawk Box:" "This is an economy that's driven by the service sector that still seems healthy. So overall, this is a check plus. This is a good labor market report." Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management: "Given the strong jobs numbers along with the extension of tax cuts and potentially higher tariff levels (once the 90-day pause expires), the Fed is much less likely to cut rates this month than many were talking about earlier this week." — CNBC's Alex Harring, Brian Evans, Jesse Pound, Sarah Min, John Melloy and Christina Cheddar-Berk contributed reporting.
Bloomberg
12 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Sahm: Jobs Report Makes it Difficult for Fed to Cut Rates
US job growth exceeded expectations in June for a fourth straight month and the unemployment rate fell, showcasing a labor market that is holding up despite a slowing economy. Payrolls increased 147,000 last month, driven by a jump in state and local government employment, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report out Thursday, a day early because of the Independence Day holiday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Private payrolls rose just 74,000 in June, the least since October and largely due to health care. Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors says this print combined with the inflation rate makes it unlikely the Fed will cut rates (Source: Bloomberg)
