AFR Asia Summit 2025
Date: Tuesday September 9
Location: The Fullerton Hotel Sydney
In-person
For more information, visit the Summit website.
Asia's growth is unstoppable, but so are the risks. Can Australia stay competitive in a region undergoing rapid technological transformation? How will shifting trade policies, energy security concerns, and defence collaboration shape investment decisions?
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News.com.au
a day ago
- News.com.au
Will markets surge? Tension mounts as EU and China chat
As China and the European Union engage in their 25th high-level summit in Beijing late this week, a delicate dance is unfolding. Fifty years of official ties hang in the balance, with both sides cautiously testing the limits of cooperation. Talks were initially scheduled in Brussels but were quickly truncated, which is an unmistakable signal that the relationship is strained. These aren't academic nuances. The EU has shut Chinese firms out of bidding on public tenders exceeding €5 million, covering some €60 billion annually, on grounds of unfair domestic procurement barriers in China. Beijing hit back by barring EU-made medical devices from Chinese public contracts over RMB 45 million ($6.3 million) and slapped hefty levies on brandy and certain food exports. Amid these titâ€'forâ€'tat moves, including antiâ€'dumping probes, EV tariffs, rareâ€'earth export controls, momentum is shaky. Markets hate uncertainty. They crave a stable roadmap. Tariffs, bans, and retaliatory duties are precisely the variables that feed volatility. If this summit yields a clear ceasefire in trade restrict ions, particularly in medical devices, autos, and rare earths, the payoff could be swift. European and Chinese equities would rally; supply chains that have been rerouted for risk avoidance might realign for efficiency. Investors would interpret that as a signal: despite ideological differences, constructive engagement remains viable. On the other hand, if Beijing and Brussels reaffirm their bargaining stances without tangible easing, equities could crack. China's medicalâ€'device shares, already under pressure, would slump further. Europe's medâ€'tech sector stands to lose momentum despite EU protective measures, which may not insulate them entirely if Chinese market access contracts deeper. Meanwhile, EU auto and rare earth sectors, already in the crosshairs of Chinese retaliation, would be cautious, dragging industrial benchmarks lower. Supply chain confidence Multinationals in automotive, health tech, renewable energy: they've been diversifying production away from China, at significant cost. A summit that acknowledges reciprocity, embedded in the EU's IPI initiative, could slow that flight, preserve European jobs, and reduce capital expenditure on manufacturing shifts. This uptick in industrial activism would flow into equity prices. Financial flows and FDI China is Europe's largest source of foreign capital in certain niches, while the EU is critical for Chinese investment in renewables and high-end manufacturing. Easing restrictions on procurement and curbing anti-dumping probes would unlock previously frozen deals. This alternative capital entry could buoy both EUR assets and Chinese yuanâ€'linked equities. Geopolitical narrative versus economic logic Brussels has grown sceptical of Beijing's stance on Ukraine, dualâ€'use exports, and climate honesty. However, economics can override posturing. If leaders emphasize mutual dependency, rare earths for Europe, medâ€'tech for China, it resets rhetoric. Reset or escalation will be broadcast globally, and markets will respond accordingly. Sentiment ripple effects A recovery in global risk appetite could lift commodities, emerging markets, and cyclical sectors. Renewed trade momentum might even pressure USâ€'China tensions, prompting a broader regional thaw. But should the summit fracture badly, a riskâ€'off wave could sweep markets, collapsing industrial indexes and pushing safe-haven flows into bonds and gold. Both sides signal caution. China's commerce ministry labelled EU procurement curbs 'necessary' but 'regrettable,' and praised its own policy as measured. The EU likewise calls for fairness, not confrontation—but insists on reciprocity. Neither side seems predestined to yield ground. For investors and business leaders, Beijing's summit – even more than the USâ€'China saga –could be the pivot point of 2025. A breakthrough would send equities roaring back; even partial progress would steady markets. It could also give breathing space to firms that have spent months hedging geopolitical risk, encouraging renewed capital deployment. But stall, standâ€'off, or frigid statements on rare earth export curbs or dualâ€'use technology, and we could see equities hit the skids by week's end. Even central bank forecasts might adjust if growth expectations dim. The summit won't be retail theatre. There will be no sweeping announcements or flashy deals. What matters is tone – are leaders calm and collaborative, or tense and distant? Subtle shifts in communiqués, press briefings, joint statements will matter. Analysts are watching carefully: will Procurement Ministers meet China's counterpart? Will stateâ€'owned bids move forward? Will linguistic nuance cool or inflame? The fate of portfolios may hinge on diplomatic rhythm. If Friday's bulletins hint at thaw, markets will rally. If they echo last month's righteousness, markets might roll. On balance, the potential upside seems greater – and more urgent – than the downside. A summit that edges ahead, even modestly, could catalyse auto, medâ€'tech, and commodity sectors into sustained recoveries. But a failure to clear trade barriers would chill overconfidence across global markets. The clock is ticking. By the end of this week, markets will know: did Beijing and Brussels pivot or just posture? The verdict will echo across trading floors, and boardrooms. The summit is not about symbolism, it's about signal, and markets will interpret it fast and unforgivingly. Nigel Green, is the group CEO and founder of deVere Group, an independent global financial consultancy. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interviews in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of Stockhead.
AU Financial Review
01-07-2025
- AU Financial Review
Cyber Summit 2025
Navigating the New Digital Frontier Date: Tuesday September 16 Location: Hilton Sydney In-person For more information, visit the Summit website.
News.com.au
25-06-2025
- News.com.au
Trump whirlwind to test NATO summit unity
Will he play nice? That's the question for NATO leaders nervously waiting to see if a carefully choreographed show to please US President Donald Trump will pay dividends when the alliance summit gets down to business on Wednesday. Every precaution is in place to avoid a Trump blow-up at the Hague summit, from giving him credit for a historic spending deal to keeping the meeting short and sweet. But that did not stop the volatile US leader launching a pre-summit grenade as he crossed the Atlantic on Air Force One, casting doubt on the very foundation of the 32-member alliance. He refused to state his commitment to NATO's Article Five clause, the basic agreement that says an attack on one member is an attack on all. "Depends on your definition. There's numerous definitions of Article Five," Trump told journalists in comments sure to rattle the European allies he dined with upon arrival Tuesday night. "I'm committed to being their friend," he said. In a message probably not designed for public consumption, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte heaped flattery on Trump, praising him for bringing everyone on board for the spending hike. "Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win," Rutte wrote in a gushing, caps-filled missive to Trump, who promptly posted it on social media. "You are flying into another big success in The Hague this evening. It was not easy but we've got them all signed on to five percent," wrote Rutte. NATO allies are to sign off Wednesday on a pledge to spend 3.5 percent of GDP on core defence spending, plus another 1.5 percent on broader security-related areas such as cybersecurity and infrastructure. "The Europe of defence has finally awakened. Tomorrow the summit will set historic new spending targets for NATO allies," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. - 'This is incredible' - The spending hike is designed to keep Trump engaged with the alliance, after his return to power sparked fears he could blow up the seven-decade-old organisation. Trump has long groused that European countries pay too little for their own security, upended by Russia's war in Ukraine. Spain was the main hold-out on the five-percent target, complaining that spending that amount on defence was "unreasonable" -- and drawing Trump's ire in the process. Trump took fresh aim at Madrid en route to The Hague, calling its stance "very unfair" and posting a graphic entitled "Spain threatens to derail NATO summit" showing the relative outlay of alliance members. "The United States is at almost $1 Trillion Dollars -- This is incredible!" he wrote on Truth Social. Spain has been one of the lowest-spending NATO countries on defence in relative terms. The country is only set to hit the current NATO target of two percent this year after a 10-billion-euro injection. "Will be discussing it soon with the members of NATO," said Trump ominously. Rutte has stressed the spending hike -- billed as "historic" -- is needed to keep Russia in check, but even here Trump threatens to spoil NATO unity. He has turned Western policy on Ukraine on its head, reaching out to Russian President Vladimir Putin and maintaining a volatile relationship with Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelensky. "Russia must see that Ukraine will not be left alone and that Europe will not back down," Zelensky told the Dutch parliament ahead of the summit. Trump and Zelensky are slated to have a tete-a-tete in The Hague -- with officials hoping to avoid a bust-up like their infamous Oval Office shouting match. Unlike previous summits, Zelensky has not been invited to the main working session of the leaders -- cut to two and a half hours, reportedly a nod to Trump's dislike of lengthy talks. Rutte said allies would send the message that support for Kyiv was "unwavering and will persist". But despite his insistence that Ukraine's bid for membership remains "irreversible", NATO will avoid any mention of Kyiv's push to join after Trump ruled it out. One European diplomat put it succinctly. "We have a completely unpredictable US president." "We are hoping there won't be an ill-timed comment that is all anyone remembers. Everything has been done to reduce this risk," this official said.
