Ishiba's time as LDP chief and PM might not be over just yet

Japan Times

5 days ago

As a short session of both chambers of parliament convenes Friday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba appears to be in a stronger position than might otherwise be expected following his party's loss of its Upper House majority last Sunday.
That outcome means the Liberal Democratic Party no longer controls parliament, having also lost its majority in the Lower House in a general election in October last year, which took place under Ishiba's leadership as well. To pass legislation, it needs the support of at least one major opposition party.
Long-standing dissatisfaction with Ishiba's leadership boiled over among his rivals after the July 20 Upper House election, with a broad range of party members calling on him to resign. But he vowed to stay on in order to deal with pressing issues, including the matter of U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods, and in the belief that stepping down would lead to more political uncertainty.
Now, August begins with Ishiba still standing, aided not only by a lack of strong rivals who could immediately replace him but also internal party rules that make it extremely difficult to get rid of him.
In addition, Ishiba's position is helped by a divided opposition that seems unwilling to take any action that could trigger either his resignation, which means a new prime minister that might be more difficult to deal with than Ishiba, or a snap election, which could prove risky to the parties if they don't make big gains, or if they do but are unable to unite and oust the LDP-Komeito coalition's minority government.
The five-day session of parliament that begins Friday is simply to elect a new Upper House speaker and appoint committee chairs, some of which will go to members of the opposition.
There will be no vote for a new head of government.
On Monday, the Lower House budget committee will also debate the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement. Ishiba and his trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, are expected to attend this session.
The LDP will convene a joint plenary meeting of all its parliamentary members on Aug. 8. But it is unclear what this gathering hopes to achieve.
Under LDP rules, a formal meeting of members of both chambers cannot decide the fate of the party president. But it is expected to be tense, as many LDP members remain angry at Ishiba over the election loss.
Senior LDP officials met Thursday morning to discuss the party's performance in the election and have established a committee to review its results and the reasons for them and report back. Speaking to reporters afterward, LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama said the party was continuing to speak with its members, including local chapters, affiliated support groups and others, with regard to its poor showing at the polls.
'We aim to compile the report by the end of August,' Moriyama said.
But while a presidential election might be desired by members who want Ishiba out, the party would face a big question if they get their wish: Would a successor be able to gain the support needed to govern effectively from not only all fellow LDP members but also the public in advance of the autumn session of parliament?
Mishandling either concern could result in more rather than less political instability, and those concerns also make it more difficult to simply replace Ishiba.
So for the moment, Ishiba, who appeared to be finished as party leader just 10 days ago in the aftermath of the Upper House election, looks set to continue for a little while longer.
Staff writer Gabriele Ninivaggi contributed to this report.