Barnburner Figma IPO Offers Good Omen as Klarna Reconsiders Debut

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None of this was by design. Less than two years ago, in December 2023, software giant Adobe abandoned a $20 billion acquisition of Figma, the maker of cloud-based design tools for building website and app interfaces. The deal unraveled after antitrust regulators in the US and Europe expressed such vociferous concern that Adobe didn't even bother with seeking formal approval.
Figma shareholders ought to thank them: The company's shares soared 250% in their New York Stock Exchange debut yesterday, yielding a market capitalization of $47 billion, or more than double Adobe's offer. Other companies flirting with initial public offerings (IPO), like a certain Swedish fintech, may soon follow the encouraging developments.
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Wake-Up Call
The IPO market, as you probably know, entered a bear-like hibernation after its 2021 peak. Central banks started hiking interest rates to lance white-hot inflation, the knock-on effect being an increased cost of capital (which makes it harder to borrow and finance growth). There was hope this slumbering bear would emerge from its cave this year, soothed by the honeyed business outlook of the new administration. Instead, the first half of 2025 ended up meh.
On the one hand, the US saw 109 IPOs, the most in the first half of a year since 2021. But the proceeds (the actual money raised in those offerings) fell to $17.1 billion from $18.8 billion in the first half of 2024, according to an EY analysis. To emphasize just how far things have fallen, the first half of 2021 saw 219 US IPOs that brought in $85.1 billion. Much of the gap can be explained by economic uncertainty due to the Trump administration's saber-rattling about tariffs, which has left the Federal Reserve hesitant to cut rates so far this year. But Figma's debut on Thursday was the latest in a series of encouraging signs:
On top of the software developer's sterling debut, recent weeks saw online bank Chime and stablecoin issuer Circle debut (the former up 27% from Chime's $27 June IPO price, the latter up over 490%). AI data center company CoreWeave, which debuted in March, is up almost 200%.
So take it as no surprise that buy-now-pay-later fintech Klarna, which filed for an IPO in March but punted amid the tariff uncertainty in the months to follow, is considering listing as early as next month, according to sources who spoke to Bloomberg News. The outlet reported that the recent run of strong debuts is a factor in Klarna's thinking; EY's research bolsters the case for momentum, noting that June accounted for nine of the 16 IPOs that raised more than $50 million in the second quarter.
What M&A Has to Say: There are signs that another core part of corporate activity, mergers and acquisitions, is also proving resilient amid escalating tariffs. In the first half of the year, the value of announced M&A deals reached $1.2 trillion, the highest in three years, S&P Global research said this week. 'As markets have largely shrugged off initial tariff uncertainties with multiple pauses, deals have resumed relatively quickly,' wrote the ratings agency. Listings could follow suit, as 'the IPO market appears poised to build on recent momentum,' according to EY's analysis (especially if trade negotiations stay subdued compared to a dramatic April that sent Klarna into a hibernation cave of its own for a few months).
This post first appeared on The Daily Upside. To receive delivering razor sharp analysis and perspective on all things finance, economics, and markets, subscribe to our free The Daily Upside newsletter.
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