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3 expert theories on why there are so many Wimbledon upsets in 2025

3 expert theories on why there are so many Wimbledon upsets in 2025

USA Todaya day ago
The stats are downright shocking: eight top-10 seeds from both the women's and men's Wimbledon 2025 brackets were upset in the first couple of days of the Grand Slam tournament at the All England Club.
So: what gives? What happened to all these top names, from Coco Gauff to Jessica Pegula to Alexander Zverv?
There's probably no right answer. There are a number of factors -- including, perhaps, that it's a coincidence, right? -- that you could throw out there to explain the phenomenon. But there are plenty of theories being thrown out there.
We've rounded all of them up in one place as the tournament continues:
The switch to the grass of Wimbledon is jarring
Gauff had this to say, per NBC News:
"I would say the quick turnaround," Gauff said after her first-round exit. "I think most of the seeds are going deeper in Roland Garros, and then you spend a long clay season and then you have to come and adjust to grass.'
And then former American star Andy Roddick said this:
"This is what happens when you actually play tournaments outside of the monosurface, where it's all kind of the same," Roddick said. "You allow different styles in. ... This is what we get. We don't get a six-week lead-in where we're getting a data set from [tournaments in] Monte Carlo through Geneva that matter in predictions and knowing what's going on.
Because of the way the ball moves on grass, it's a harder adjustment.
It's too soon after the French Open
See above for the "quick turnaround" line. Like she said: if you went deep at the French Open, there's a fatigue factor, too.
"Upsets are contagious"
That's what Brad Gilbert said, via ESPN:
"Upsets are contagious," Brad Gilbert, former player and current coach, said on the broadcast on Tuesday. "If you're seeded, be wary before you leave that locker room."
Maybe what he's trying to say: if you're a top seed and you're seeing other top seeds go home, it can get in your head. Just check out what Madison Keys said via The Times:
The same message came from Madison Keys on Wednesday, who said that she had herself only just 'dodged a bullet' in her first-round match. 'When you are sitting and watching everyone kind of fall, it kind of adds a little bit of stress to the situation,' she said.
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Another seed leaves Wimbledon when Madison Keys is surprised by Laura Siegemund

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LONDON -- This most unpredictable of Wimbledons delivered yet another surprise Friday when reigning Australian Open champion Madison Keys, the No. 6 seed, was a lopsided loser in the third round, eliminated 6-3, 6-3 by 104th-ranked Laura Siegemund of Germany. Keys' exit left just one of the top six women in the bracket before the end of Week 1: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, who was scheduled to face 2021 U.S. Open champion Emma Raducanu later in the day. No. 2 Coco Gauff, No. 3 Jessica Pegula, No. 4 Jasmine Paolini and No. 5 Zheng Qinwen already were out. The men's field also has seen its share of surprises, including a Wimbledon-record 13 seeds gone in the first round. 'At times, it wasn't the best quality, let's say. But I managed, and in the end, it's just important to find solutions and I did that well. Kept my nerves in the end," Siegemund said, then added with a laugh: "There are always nerves. If you don't have nerves in this moment, you're probably dead.' Wimbledon might be the only Grand Slam event where Keys hasn't reached at least the semifinals, but she has participated in the quarterfinals there twice and is enjoying a breakthrough 2025, including her title at Melbourne Park in January. Keys' power vs. Siegemund's spins and slices offered quite a contrast in styles, and this outcome was surprisingly one-way traffic on a windy afternoon at No. 2 Court. The key statistic, undoubtedly, was this: Keys made 31 unforced errors, 20 more than Siegemund. When it ended with one last backhand return from Keys that sailed wide, Siegemund smiled broadly, raised her arms and jumped up and down repeatedly. 'You can't not be happy when you beat a great player like Madison,' Siegemund said. How unexpected is this for Siegemund? Before this year, her career record at the All England Club was 2-5, and she'd never made it past the second round. Taking into account all four Grand Slam tournaments, she had reached the third round only once in 28 previous appearances, getting to the quarterfinals at the 2020 French Open. 'There is technically no pressure for me,' said Siegemund, at 37 the oldest woman remaining in the tournament. 'I try to remember that I only play for myself. I don't feel like I need to prove anything anymore. My boyfriend often tells me that.' On Sunday, the German faces another unexpected participant at this stage of the grass-court major: 101st-ranked Solana Sierra of Argentina, who lost in qualifying and made it into the main draw when another player withdrew. Ben Shelton played for all of four points and about a minute, wrapping up his second-round match against Rinky Hijikata that was suspended Thursday night. Four-time major title winner Naomi Osaka's Wimbledon ended in the third round for the third time, eliminated by Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. And No. 13 Amanda Anisimova of the U.S. advanced to the fourth round. Five-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek will take on Danielle Collins at Centre Court — who could forget their testy exchange at the Paris Olympics? — while No. 1 Jannik Sinner and 24-time major champ Novak Djokovic also are involved in matches at the main stadium. Two American women will be in action at No. 1 Court: Hailey Baptiste faces No. 7 Mirra Andreeva of Russia, and No. 10 Emma Navarro plays defending champion Barbora Krejcikova of the Czech Republic.

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