US strikes at a fragile moment for global economy
US strikes on Iran
's three main nuclear facilities come at a fragile moment for the
global economy
, and the outlook now hinges on how forcefully the Islamic Republic retaliates.
The World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the
International Monetary Fund
have all downgraded their global growth forecasts in recent months. Any significant increases in oil or natural gas prices, or disturbances in trade caused by a further escalation of the conflict, would act as yet another brake on the world economy.
"We'll see how Tehran responds, but the attack likely puts the conflict on a escalatory path," Bloomberg Economics analysts including Ziad Daoud wrote in a report. "For the global economy, an expanding conflict adds to the risk of higher
oil prices
and an upward impulse to inflation.?"
The rising geopolitical risks intersect with a potential escalation in tariffs in the coming weeks as President Donald Trump's pauses of his hefty so-called "reciprocal" levies are due to expire. The biggest economic impact from a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would likely be felt via surging oil prices.
Post the US strike, a derivative product that allows investors to speculate on price swings in crude oil surged 8.8% on IG Weekend Markets. If that move were to hold when trading resumes, IG strategist Tony Sycamore said he projects WTI crude oil futures will open at around $80 per barrel.
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