China social spending hits highest level in nearly two decades

The Star

5 days ago

BEIJING: China's government spending has pivoted toward social welfare to a degree unseen for at least a generation, as it runs a record budget deficit with a focus on boosting consumption to cushion the blow from Donald Trump's tariffs.
The latest evidence arrived on Monday (July 28), when China announced it will start offering nationwide cash handouts to families as an incentive for couples to have children. While Beijing is channeling less on-budget investment into infrastructure, expenditure that covers outlays ranging from education to employment and social security climbed to nearly 5.7 trillion yuan (US$795 billion) in the first half - the highest for the period since the data series began in 2007.
That represents an increase of 6.4 per cent from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations based on figures published by the Ministry of Finance. Authorities could renew their pledge to prioritise support for domestic demand, as top officials prepare to meet this month to set the economic agenda for the rest of the year while trade talks with Washington continue.
The splurge was almost double the increase in total spending under the general public budget, the first and biggest account among the government's four fiscal books. Infrastructure-related expenditure in the account - allocated for costs such as environmental protection, irrigation facilities and transportation - was 4.5 per cent less than a year earlier.
Fiscal priorities have shifted after the trade war unleashed by Trump threatened China with millions of job losses and put pressure on its patchy social safety net. Under the new policy of childcare subsidies, the government will spend 3,600 yuan a year per kid under the age of three, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
Citigroup Inc. estimates a total lump-sum payout of 117 billion yuan in the second half of 2025, while Morgan Stanley puts the programme's annual cost at 100 billion yuan, assuming about 9ninemillion births a year.
Although President Xi Jinping has in the past resisted large-scale handouts to families over what he's called "welfarism,' China responded in recent months by ramping up government support for households. The goal is partly to bolster domestic demand in the face of US tariffs, which have sent the country's shipments to the world's biggest consumer market slumping this year.
"Better supporting people's well-being will help boost domestic demand and is part of the rebalancing of the Chinese economy,' said Tommy Xie, head of Asia macro research at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.
At the same time, China launched construction of a 1.2 trillion yuan mega-dam in Tibet this month, a massive project that will likely take years to complete.
"The room for infrastructure expansion in the future will shrink marginally' even though it can play a "supporting role at critical times,' OCBC's Xie said.
Social security and employment saw the biggest gain in spending related to people's well-being, up almost eight per cent in the first half from a year earlier. A survey carried out by China's central bank showed an employment sentiment index hit a record low in the second quarter, illustrating the need for more government aid for job seekers.
Outlays on education increased 5.9 per cent and rose four per cent on medical treatment and health care.
Meanwhile local governments' tapping of the annual quota of new bonds meant mainly for infrastructure investment slowed. Provinces have issued about 56 per cent of new special local bonds allowed for this year, down from an average of 61 per cent for January-July in the five years through 2024, according to Bloomberg calculations based on MOF numbers.
Previously, the favoured way to jumpstart growth was by spending on areas like roads, railways or industrial parks, much of it done by provincial governments.
Instead, the government has accelerated the issuance of sovereign notes this year, primarily to cover the budget shortfall for routine public expenditure. Chinese provinces also sold substantial volumes of bonds in the first seven months to refinance their so-called hidden debt, as Beijing seeks to contain credit risks from deteriorating local finances.
"An uneven consumption recovery in the first half highlights a key risk for China's growth outlook: a sustained improvement in domestic demand may require time to take hold. The experience from 1998-2003 suggests that even with strong policy support, lasting gains in consumer spending can be slow to emerge - with false starts along the way.'
Government borrowing was crucial for replenishing state coffers depleted by China's years-long property slump.
Revenue from real estate-related taxes, including deeds and urban land use, fell 5.6 per cent on year in the first half to 975.3 billion yuan.
Provinces earned 1.43 trillion yuan in the period from selling land, a contraction of 6.5 per cent despite a rebound of over 20 per cent in June thanks to market recovery in some big cities.
Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cautioned, however, on "the sustainability of land sales revenue improvement' and maintained their forecast that government land sales revenue may decline further this year by up to ten per cent.
Total tax revenue shrank 1.2 per cent on year in the first half to 9.29 trillion yuan, with income from levies on such transactions as vehicle purchases posting double-digit declines.
Non-tax revenue - which includes compensation for the use of state-controlled resources and assets and fines - rose 3.7 per cent to 2.27 trillion yuan. It grew despite a decline in the money collected from fines, a Finance Ministry official said at a Friday briefing.
Revenue from the tax on vehicle purchases plunged 19.1 per cent in January-June from a year ago, the biggest drop among all categories and more than triple its decline in the same period of 2024.
Slumping income from the vehicle purchase tax shows the impact of the government's decision to extend the suspension of a levy on buying new energy vehicles, such as electric cars, to 2027, Huachuang Securities analysts including Zhang Yu wrote in a note on Friday. The shift away from fuel-powered cars also weighed on revenue from the consumption tax by reducing demand for gasoline and diesel, they said.
The government is losing a total of 265 billion yuan per year in revenues from the vehicle purchase tax and the consumption levy due to the pivot to cars powered by alternative-energy sources, Huachuang Securities estimates. - Bloomberg