Federal election 2025: The key seats that could decide the next government

West Australian

01-05-2025

This Saturday's election is shaping up to produce a mélange of results. All the polls say Labor is almost certain to retain Government, it will just be a matter of whether they cling on to majority, or fall short – and if so, by how much.
Going into the election, Labor holds a notional 78 seats, the Coalition 57, the Greens 4, and the crossbench 11. The major parties need 76 of the 150 seats to form majority Government, but could govern with 75 by making a crossbencher the speaker.
A handful of marginal seats could swap hands, while there are serious challenges to electorates with more sizeable buffers. The teal wave that swept through capital cities in 2022 could extend into the regions this time, while the Greens face tough competition in their three Queensland seats, and One Nation's vote is up across tehc ountry.
Psephologist Kevin Bonham told The Nightly said there were about 50 seats to pay close attention to – including most marginal seats on either side.
'If the polls are right, the median result is Labor slightly increasing its majority. There could reasonably be anything from Labor falls into minority by a few through to something lopsided – anything within that range,' he said.
'For Labor to fall deeply into minority, something would be deeply wrong… But you can't be absolutely sure until you see what happens.'
Liberal sources know there's a reality where they only win five or six seats come Saturday but are still hopeful a significant Labor backlash eventuates in the outer urban electorates.
Labor MPs and staffers alike are still nervous, but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is hopeful he doesn't just hold his majority, but increases it.
'We're aiming to hold every single one of them, and we're out there campaigning hard in Coalition-held seats and in Greens-held seats as well,' he said on Wednesday.
Pollsters, strategists and party sources alike say there are very few guarantees in this election — Saturday will essentially be '150 byelections' but these are about 40 of the key ones to watch.
Of the state's 38 seats, a handful could change hands on Saturday night. The unpopular state Government has been a drag on federal Labor's vote, but they're hopeful the outer-suburban wipeout the Coalition had been hoping for doesn't eventuate.
The Liberals have made no secret of their aspiration to pinch
Chisholm
back from the Labor Party, while
Aston
— which was won by the Government in the 2023 byelection on a fluke — will inevitably change hands. 'We're not supposed to have it,' one Labor source said.
McEwan
, in the city's north, is held by Labor with 3.8 per cent. Dutton has now visited the seat three times this campaign and is firming up to be one of Labor's losses.
Dunkley
, in the city's east is another one of those outer-metropolitan/ peri urban seats where the cost-of-living factor could go against Labor's 6.8 per cent margin.
The safe Labor seat of
Gorton
, held with 10 per cent, became the centre of a concerted Coalition advertising campaign mid-way through the campaign. Labor could suffer a significant swing here, but party insiders believe it will hold. They share the same view about
Hawke
(7.6 per cent), which Mr Dutton has now visited twice in five weeks to Mr Albanese's zero.
Meanwhile in
Bendigo
, the Nationals are in with a strong chance of decimating Labor's 11.2 per cent margin to add it to its column.
Labor is also fighting on its left flank, with the Greens running strong races in
Wills
and
Macnamarra
— where preference flows will be crucial. The minor party are most confident about knocking Wills MP Peter Khalil off.
Labor could recover some of their losses by picking up
Deakin
, which is held by the Liberals on 0.02 per cent.
Liberal sources believe they will pick up either
Goldstein
or
Kooyong
from the teal independents. Former MP Tim Wilson is running a strong campaign in the former, and Mr Dutton spent time with candidate Amelia Hammer in Kooyong this week to throw his support behind her.
But the Coalition could lose Dan Tehan's regional seat of
Wannon
to Climate-200 backed candidate Alex Dyson.
The Coalition is most confident of its chances in picking up the Labor-held seat of
Gilmore
, where former state MP Andrew Constance is again taking on Fiona Phillips' wafer thin 0.2 per cent margin.
In Sydney, the redistribution has reverted Labor-held
Bennelong
- the seat of former PM John Howard - back to the Liberals. Mr Albanese visited the electorate on Monday to hand out how-to-vote cards with incumbent MP Jerome Laxale, and Labor sources acknowledge the seat will be a tough fight - but are hopeful it will hold.
The Liberals have made some noise about Labor-held
Reid, Parramatta
, and
Werriwa.
Werriwa appears the most likely to change hands, if the outer-suburban swing away from Labor manifests, and dependent on how the third-party vote pans out.
Out in the city's west, Labor is pouring resources into
Fowler
, where independent Dai Le won by 1.1 per cent in 2022 following a disastrous decision by Labor to parachute in senator Kristina Kenneally. This time, they've backed in Tu Le, and Mr Albanese received a warm reception during a streetwalk earlier this week.
Both Mr Dutton and Mr Albanese stopped in the country's bellwether seat of
Robertson
on the same day this week. Both parties say they are confident in this central coast seat – but whatever happens here has for 15 elections been a reflection of the national mood.
Bradfield
, which has been a blue-ribbon seat since its creation in 1972, has captured some of the independent voters from the abolished electorate of North Sydney, and the Liberal's margin has been reduced to a narrow 2.5 per cent. With Paul Fletcher retiring, there's a strong belief well-financed independent Nicolette Boele could win the seat on her second tilt.
Of the other blue-ribbon seats that went teal in 2022,
Mackellar
- held by Sophie Scamps - is discussed as the most likely to revert.
In the regions,
Calare
will make for a fascinating watch where a three-way competition between the Nationals, party defector and incumbent Andrew Gee, and a Climate-200 backed independent.
In
Cowper
, where independent Caz Jeise shaved off almost 10 per cent of Nationals MP Pat Conaghan's margin in 2022, Coalition sources acknowledge they face a serious threat.
The Sunshine State offers Labor the most chances for gains. Greens-held
Brisbane
will be a three-way contest, and it could go to either Labor or the Liberal Party, depending on preferences. If Labor's Madonna Jarrett can finish second ahead of incumbent Stephen Bates, she can clinch the seat on preferences.
The Coalition feels more confident in wresting
Ryan
back from the Greens.
Griffith
, Kevin Rudd's old seat, will be another fierce contest against Greens' MP Max Chandler-Mather. Mr Albanese visited the seat on Tuesday, and Labor sources acknowledge it will be difficult - less of a sure bet, but possible.
The bayside seat of
Bonner
has been in Coalition hands since 2010, but as Labor has improved in national polling this electorate has emerged as a must-watch seat with Mr Albanese visiting the seat on Tuesday. In
Leichhardt
in the state's north, candidate Matt Smith has had plenty of frontbench support in the last five weeks and a strong advertising campaign behind him.
Mr Dutton's seat of
Dickson
, which he holds with a slim 1.7 per cent margin, could provide a fascinating result. Labor's Ali France is running for a third time, and it was the first stop on Mr Albanese's campaign. The emergence of a Climate 200-backed candidate who hails from a Liberal-supporting part of the electorate has Mr Dutton vulnerable in his own backyard.
Climate-200 independents are running strong in the regional electorate of
Groom,
which has emerged as a dark horse, as well as the Gold Coast seat of
McPherson
. While the Coalition has buffers of 6.9 per cent and 9.3 per cent respectively, there's an outside chance of some movement.
Four of the apple isle's five seats are under the spotlight this election. Labor believe they have a chance of flipping
Bass
and/ or
Braddon
, on margins of 1.4 per cent and eight per cent respectively. The Liberals have thrown a lot of resources at taking
Lyons
from Labor, with Mr Dutton making his fifth visit this campaign on Thursday.
The safe Labor seat of
Franklin
, held by minister Julie Collins on 13.7 per cent, is on the wildcard list. Solidly Labor since 1993, the salmon farming issue has become potent in the electorate and independent Peter George, backed by Climate 200, has run a highly visible and well-funded campaign.
Labor is in a good position to hold all nine of its seats in WA, including
Tangney
. The new electorate of
Bullwinkel
, which is notionally Labor, is favoured by the Liberals.
The Liberals are confident the affluent blue-ribbon seat of
Curtin
, which went teal in 2022, will return to them. But they could lose the regional seat of
Forrest
, where Climate-200 backed Sue Chapman has run a strong campaign and could pinch the seat from the Liberals after 53 years.
The suburban seat of
Sturt
is a three-cornered race, where Liberal MP James Stevens faces a tough battle against Labor and a new independent challenger. The Greens picked up 16 per cent of the vote last time, so any increase to that vote, as well as preference flows from the independent, could put this seat in Labor's hands.
Labor could lose nearby
Boothby
, where former MP Nicolle Flint is taking on the Labor incumbent. Liberals are confident her name recognition will help them.