Morning Bid: Dangers abound ahead of deadline day
We are now about halfway through the most action-packed part of the week. The eye of the storm, if you will.
In case you have forgotten, today we are catching up on corporate earnings, key economic data releases, several central bank interest rate decisions, and all the latest twists and turns in trade negotiations before new U.S. tariffs kick in on Friday.
Hot off the presses: The yen appreciated 0.6% immediately after the Bank of Japan kept rates on hold as widely expected. Markets are focused on an upwards revision in inflation forecasts, with Governor Ueda due to speak shortly as traders anticipate rate hikes may be back on the agenda this year.
With second-quarter earnings season halfway complete, Nasdaq futures ripped 1.3% higher after blow-out earnings from Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab. The U.S. dollar held steady after hitting a two-month high, on track to tally its first monthly gain all year.
"It has been a great earnings season so far, and that's the primary reason why U.S. stocks continue to do well, but the full brunt of the tariffs hasn't been felt," said David Chao, global market strategist for Asia-Pacific at Invesco in Singapore.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab fell 0.7%, though it was still on track for its fourth consecutive monthly increase. Stocks in Hong Kong (.HSI), opens new tab led declines, down 1.1% after official PMI gauges showed weaker-than-expected activity during July.
Copper futures plunged 19.4% after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper.
The Korean won appreciated 0.1% after Trump said the U.S. will charge a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea. The Asian country will invest $350 billion in U.S. projects and purchase $100 billion in U.S. energy products.
The announcement is the latest in a series of trade policy deals rushed out before the August 1 deadline that Trump set for trade deals before the U.S. imposes what he called Liberation Day tariffs.
Trump also issued a blitz of tariff announcements ranging from goods from Brazil to small-value shipments from overseas.
In early European trades, pan-region futures were up 0.2%, German DAX futures were up 0.2% and FTSE futures were up 0.1% ahead of another flurry of earnings and inflation data.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
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BBC News
27 minutes ago
- BBC News
How South Korea's K-beauty industry is being hit by Trump tariffs
Cars and smartphones may rank among South Korea's biggest exports to the US, but few goods inspire a more devoted following than the Asian country's beauty products.K-beauty - a term that covers a wide range of skincare, makeup and cosmetics from South Korea - is lauded for its quality and value, driving soaring demand in recent global appeal of South Korean culture has also helped propel the popularity of its Pearl Mak tells the BBC that she was introduced to K-beauty products by her friends. South Korean serums are better-suited for her skin compared to some Western brands that tend to be more harsh, the 27-year-old graphic designer "95% of my skincare is made up of K-beauty products", she Mak is not alone in her preference for South Korean skincare brands. Americans spent as much $1.7bn (£1.3bn) on K-beauty products in 2024, according to industry estimates. That marks a more than 50% rise compared to the previous year.K-beauty products are often more attractively priced than their Western counterparts - but also feature ingredients that are not as commonly found in the West - from heartleaf to snail mucin. US President Donald Trump has now imposed a 15% import tax on South Korean goods traded between Seoul and Washington. It's less than the 25% levy that Trump had threatened, but many consumers are not taking any chances. US K-beauty retailer Santé Brand saw orders spike by nearly 30% in April, right after Trump unveiled sweeping US import taxes on most of the world."When the tariff announcements hit, customers got strategic with how they were going to weather the storm," Santé Brand's founder Cheyenne Ware told the BBC. "Consumers are preparing against the uncertainty."Another K-beauty retailer, Senti Senti, has been ordering more products since Trump started his tariff threats, says manager Winnie Zhong. This week, she received alerts from suppliers urging retailers to "stock up before tariffs".Both retailers said prices of K-beauty products are likely to increase as the levies push up costs across the industry."Anyone telling you prices will stay flat through the next two years is naive," says Ms are bound to rise, especially for smaller sellers of beauty products on platforms like Amazon, who operate with slim profit margins, economist Munseob Lee from the University of California San Diego higher prices, the global popularity of South Korean culture means K-beauty products are likely to remain in demand in the US, he says."Casual buyers might be turned off by the higher price, but fans won't find an easy substitute."Ms Zhong agrees. She thinks customers will still want to buy K-beauty products but price rises may mean they purchase fewer items than prices are unlikely to stop Ms Mak buying her favourite products."It depends on how much the price shoots up, but as of now, I am willing to pay more to purchase the same products," she says. 'No easy substitute' Big K-beauty brands are in a much better position to absorb the cost of tariffs than their smaller rivals, says South Korea-based business consultant Eyal Victor larger companies will be able to avoid major price rises for their customers as they have higher profit margins, he smaller K-beauty firms that make their products in South Korea will struggle to keep a lid on costs, Mr Mamou adds."It will take some time to take effect since most goods being sold in the short-run have already been commissioned at current prices, but we'll see it play out soon." In recent days, President Trump has struck deals with Japan and the European Union that will see their exports to the US subject to the same 15% tariffs as South means countries that are home to some of the world's biggest cosmetics brands face the same levies as the K-beauty to Trump's trade policies is his ambition to see more goods being made in it's yet to be seen whether or not this will mean US buyers switch to American beauty Mak says she doesn't see US-made products as attractive alternatives."I do search for American-made alternatives often, but I have yet to find any that are as effective as the ones I use. So I wouldn't go for American products yet."
Sky News
36 minutes ago
- Sky News
India hints it will keep buying Russian oil
India has indicated it will defy threats made by US President Donald Trump and continue buying Russian oil. The world's third-largest crude importer - after China and the US - cashed in on cheap Russian oil when its price plummeted after Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Historically, it had bought most of its crude from countries in the Middle East. But this changed after the invasion in February 2022, when western countries slapped sanctions on Russia in a bid to choke off money fuelling Moscow's war chest. It prompted the recent energy crisis that saw household bills in the UK soar. On Friday, the Indian foreign ministry said its relationship with Russia was "steady and time-tested", and warned against viewing it through the lens of another country. Addressing a weekly meeting, spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said India's general position on procuring energy was guided by supply in the markets and prevailing global circumstances. The sentiment was echoed by two further government sources cited by the Reuters news agency. "These are long-term oil contracts," one of the sources said. "It is not so simple to just stop buying overnight." India is highly dependent on oil imports, which supply 87% of its needs, according to the International Energy Agency. The comments follow a threat made by President Trump to impose a 25% tariff on goods from India, as well as an additional import tax, because of New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil. The US president made ending the war in Ukraine a top priority - pledging to do so within his first 24 hours in office. But recently Mr Trump - who has repeatedly praised the Mr Putin over the years - has started to sour on the Russian leader for failing to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. 4:22 He called it "disappointing" and also threatened new economic sanctions on Russia if progress is not made. Mr Trump also this week said he had ordered two US nuclear submarines to be positioned in the "appropriate regions" in a row with former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. The pressure on India comes after it upped it Russian crude purchases from 68,000 barrels per day in January 2022 to 1.12 million barrels per day by June that year. Supplies rose as high as nearly 40% of India's imports at one point, making Russia the largest supplier of crude to New Delhi, according to the Press Trust of India, citing data from analytics firm Kpler. Home to 1.3 billion people, India is expected to become an even bigger oil consumer over the remainder of the decade, fuelled by spectacular growth in its economy, as well as rising population and demographics. Demand has been rising fastest for petrol, with rising household incomes sparking a boom in motorcycle and car ownership.
Daily Mail
an hour ago
- Daily Mail
73 Holyrood fat cats paid over £100,000 as satisfaction with public services falls
The number of Scots civil servants earning more than £100,000 a year has soared under the SNP, the Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal. Taxpayers are footing the bill for a growing army of civil servants - many of whom are predominanty allowed to work from home - as satisfaction with public services plummets. Overall, the Scottish Government now employs an unprecedented 73 mandarins who are officially ranked as Senior Civil Service (SCS) - mostly heads of various departments and directorates. In total, this upper tier of civil servants now costs the public purse an astonishing £8.6m a year in wages, with the vast majority earning in excess of £110,000 - three times the Scottish average annual salary. Earlier this year the SNP administration's finance secretary Shona Robison slashed millions from the budgets for the NHS, mental health and transport, claiming Scotland was facing 'enormous and growing' financial pressure. Despite this, the number of senior civil servants employed to run the country has grown sharply - as has the cost. At the same time, the civil service has come under fire for its refusal to abandon 'working from home' and for a 'sick-note' culture in which government staff take far more days off than workers in the private sector. Critics have attacked the 'out of control' cost to taxpayers and accused the SNP Government of getting its priorities all wrong. Scottish Conservative spokesman for finance and local government Craig Hoy said: 'The civil service, and the cost of it, have ballooned out of control under the SNP's watch, and by far the biggest expansion has been in those on the highest salaries. 'When Scots are paying the UK's highest taxes, but seeing worsening services, there 's no excuse for fat-cat pay packages of this sort.' Callum McGoldrick, researcher at the TaxPayers' Alliance said: 'At a time when public services are clearly under pressure, it's hard to justify the steady growth in high-paid civil servants at the top of the Scottish government. 'With budgets being squeezed across the board, Scottish taxpayers will be asking whether ministers have got their priorities right. 'The focus should be on improving services for the public, not inflating the salaries bill in Holyrood.' The Scottish Government recently published its annual list of Senior Civil Service staff, reflecting the situation at the end of March. Overall there are now 73 SCS on a wage bill of totalling £8.6m. The number is higher than the 66 staff on six-figure sums last year, which had added up to a total wage bill of £7.5m. In comparison, there were 52 SCS on £100,000 in 2023, 38 in 2021 and just 14 as recently as 2018. The current list includes director generals of government departments - plus heads of directorates including Cladding Remediation, Covid Inquiry Response, Organisational Continuity and Heat In Buildings. The highest paid is Caroline Lamb, director general of the health department and head of the Scottish NHS, whose salary is listed between £205,000 and £209,000 a year. Four other staff are listed as earning over £150,000, including former Permanent Secretary JP Marks who took home £190,000 as the country's most senior civil servant before leaving in April to take up a new job as chief executive of tax agency HMRC. He was replaced by Joe Griffin, who in his former role as the Scottish Government's director general of strategy & external affairs earned £140,000 a year. The official responsible for the country's finances is director general of the Scottish Exchequer Alyson Stafford who takes home £160,000. The list shows a further nine civil servants earning between £120,000 and £150,000 a year. Most are director generals of departments including Communities, Corporate, Economy, Education & Justice, and Net Zero. Overall 45 officials earn between £110,000 and £120,000 a year - including the government's directors of Corporate Transformation, Digital, and Propriety & Ethics. Meanwhile the public are increasingly unhappy with the public services the government provides. A survey published earlier this year by research firm Ipsos shows almost three in four Scots (74 per cent) think public services in their local area have got worse in the last five years. Of those, 62 per cent believe the Scottish Government is mainly responsible for the deterioration. Half of Scots (51 per cent) say they are dissatisfied with the quality of health services, while 28 per cent are dissatisfied with the quality of primary and secondary education, and half (51 per cent) are dissatisfied with the quality of policing. The civil service has also been criticised for clinging to the working from home policies initially imposed in the wake of Covid. Since the pandemic in 2020, working from home or hybrid working has been the default option for many staff. New rules introduced to try and boost productivity mean that, from October, staff will have to turn up at the office at least two days a week. The figure is lower than the equivalent policy for civil servants working for the UK government in Whitehall, which states that civil servants must spend at least 60 per cent of their time working in the office. However the edict has sparked complaints from some Scottish civil servants about the cost of having commute more regularly to government offices in Edinburgh and Glasgow. Some have raised concerns about the environmental impact of driving themselves to work - while others have warned the order to return to the office is 'an attack on their human rights'. Separately it emerged in June that Scotland's civil servants last year took an average of 8.7 days off sick - the worst recorded rate of absence in the government's history, and more than double the rate across the private sector. Although levels of pay for SCS staff are reserved to Westminster, the size and hierarchy of the civil service in Scotland is a matter for the Scottish Government. Responding to the criticism levelled at it, the government argued that its senior civil servants brought valuable expertise - while also vowing to deliver 'optimum value' for taxpayers. A spokesperson said: 'Senior civil servants manage performance and delivery, and ensure the Scottish Government achieves its goals. They bring significant expertise and progress the government's plans for delivering on its Programme for Government. ' It also said its public service reform strategy will 'ensure every pound spent delivers optimum value' and will 'reduce the annual combined corporate costs of the government and Scotland's public bodies by £1 billion over five years'.
