49% of SA's cars come from one country, and it's not China. But is local manufacturing in trouble?

IOL News

3 days ago

84% of Japanese-branded vehicles sold in South Africa are sourced from India, including popular models like the Toyota Starlet Cross.
Image: Supplied
South Africans are buying fewer locally produced vehicles than ever before, sparking fears of deindustrialisation as the market's appetite for affordably priced imports grows.
Although the growing array of Chinese brands offered locally is usually seen as the greatest threat to local manufacturers, the vast majority of South Africa's imported cars actually originate from India, according to the latest data from Lightstone.
36% of all the vehicles sold in South Africa in 2024 were imported from India, Lightstone said, while 37% were locally manufactured. Chinese imports accounted for just 11% of vehicle sales last year.
Where SA's vehicles are built: 2009 versus 2024.
Image: Lightstone
When we exclude the bakkies and light commercial vehicles, India's share grows to almost half of our market. Lightstone figures for the first five months of 2025, shared exclusively with IOL, show that 49% of all passenger vehicle sales were imports from India.
The majority of these vehicles emanate from the Maruti Suzuki operation in India, which also supplies Toyota with vehicles such as the Starlet, Starlet Cross, Vitz and Urban Cruiser. Suzuki Auto's own vehicles, such as the Swift, Baleno and Fronx, are also gaining market share, with the new-generation Swift having dominated the passenger car market on numerous occasions in 2025.
Interestingly, 84% of all the Japanese-branded light vehicles sold in South Africa in 2024 were imported from India, Lightstone said, with just 10% actually built in Japan. Likewise, the majority of South Korean (81%) and French branded vehicles (74%) are also sourced from India.
'The growth in vehicle sales originating in India can be attributed to the large number of vehicle manufacturers now producing vehicles in the country, leveraging the relatively cheap cost of labour and overall manufacturing costs,' said Andrew Hibbert, Auto Data Analyst at Lightstone.
Affordably priced Indian- and Chinese-build vehicles have, on the one hand, become a significant blessing to cash-strapped South African consumers.
Yet it is of concern that in 2009, around half of the light vehicles sold in South Africa were locally produced. In that year, just 5% of our vehicles were sourced from India.
Does this mean that South Africa's local manufacturing industry is in trouble?
Although Toyota SA head Andrew Kirby has warned of a slow and steady 'deindustrialisation', and other CEOs such as Ford's Neil Hill and VWSA's Martina Biene have also expressed serious concerns about local manufacturing feasibility, South African carmakers have shifted their focus to exports, while gradually increasing production volumes over the years. For instance, 632,000 vehicles were produced locally in 2023, up from 571,000 in 2016.
2023 was a record year for SA vehicle exports, with 399,000 vehicles shipped abroad, according to Naamsa, and although 2024 saw a dip to 308,000 exports, the value of these exports actually increased and the lower volumes were largely seen as a temporary setback due to economic conditions abroad.
2024 Toyota Hilux Raider facelift South Africa There remains a massive demand for locally-produced bakkies, such as the Toyota Hilux.
Image: Supplied
Also somewhat encouraging is that South Africa's five top-selling vehicles in 2024 were locally produced. These were the Toyota Hilux (32,656), VW Polo Vivo (25,913), Ford Ranger (25,533), Toyota Corolla Cross (21,861) and Isuzu D-Max (11,153). But below that, gradually eating into the volumes of locally produced cars and bakkies, is a proliferation of affordably priced SUVs imported from India and China.