S&P 500 closes at another new record high after US–Vietnam deal
Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Allie Canal and BD8 Capital Partners CEO and chief investment officer Barbara Doran join Market Domination Overtime with Josh Lipton to take a closer look at the trading day action.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here.
That is the closing bell on Wall Street and now it's Market Domination Overtime. We're giving you full team coverage of all the moves to get you up to speed on the action from today's trade. Barbara Duran as well as Yahoo finances, Ali Canal, joining us here to break down the moves today. Ali, let's start with you on that close.
All right. Another record winning day here, Josh. S&P 500 hitting a new record here. We finished the day up about 4/10 of a percent getting that fresh all-time high. Nasdaq composite also able to move higher here up about 9/10 of a percent. And the Dow just couldn't get it done. We saw a pop earlier today, but we closed just below the flat line here. And I want to take a look at some trending tickers because we've got quite a bit of news today in particular on the trade front. You'll see that Nike was a big winner today. President Trump announcing a trade deal with Vietnam. And why this is important for Nike is that Nike has been diversifying its business away from China. And this happened during President Trump's first term when US-China relations were a little choppy then, just like they are today. So the fact that we have this deal now with Vietnam is a good thing for Nike and also some other retailers as well, Lululemon and On Holdings, for example, seeing a bid in today's trading session. Then if we flip over to some of the sector action, you'll see a mix of red and green. We have energy materials and tech leading the way higher. Financials, communication services, utilities and healthcare are the biggest laggards of the day. And then, let's give a shout out to Tesla, right? Tesla has been struggling over the past few trading sessions, but we were able to see a pop of about 5% today. Now, this comes after the company disappointed on deliveries, but they did produce more vehicles than expected. So that was able to lift shares. But let's remember that it's been a bit difficult over a 10-day period. You'll see those declines. And we, you know, continue to track a company like Tesla, which CEO Elon Musk, all eyes are focused on his leadership and all everything he has to say about Trump's one big beautiful bill. And unfortunately, Tesla sometimes is caught in the crosshairs of that. So a lot of individual news movers today, we've been tracking a lot over this past week. And that sets us up for the crucial jobs report tomorrow. And then, of course, markets will be closed for the shortened holiday trading week with 4th of July, Josh.
Thank you, Ali. All right, Barbara. I want to bring you back here as well. So as Ali was saying, so the Dow finishes basically flat. The SPX tacks on about half a percent. The Nasdaq's up about 1%, small caps up about 1%. What do you make of today's trade?
Well, I think it started yesterday. We had the end of the end of the quarter, you know, on Monday. And we had the the stock market has made a V-shaped recovery, extraordinary recovery, back to new highs, you know, since the selloff in April. And so I think what at 22, 23 valuation times forward earnings, I think the market's due for a pause here. And yet you still have so much money in the sidelines. A lot of people, institutional investors were caught flat-footed. So they're trying to get in. And so what happened, I think, started yesterday was you saw a rotation out of the high momentum names into the laggards, into small caps, you know, and that's even value, but I think that's going to be short-lived because things have not really changed, you know, in terms of the economic outlook. You're starting to see, and you saw the numbers in the ADP this morning. You've been seeing a softening in the labor market, you know, but it's not dramatic. Doesn't look like it's going to fall off a cliff. We'll know more tomorrow when we have the non-farm payroll numbers. And that's going to be unemployment could go up to 4.3% from 4.2. But basically, you know, labor is clearly softening and we'll see. We still don't know the impact of the tariffs, you know? And we don't know when Trump, you know, we have this this tariff deadline on the 9th. There'll probably be some extensions, there'll be some declared victories and people will be able to start to sort through it. But the real winners here will, I think, continue to be the big cap because they can absorb these things. They can push it back on their suppliers. They can take a little hit to their margins. They can increase prices a little. It's the small the small businesses, which you saw this morning in the ADP numbers, that are getting hurt the most because they don't have that flexibility. So then we have earnings starting in in another few weeks and that's going to be the big banks.
Do you, when you think about that Q2 earnings, Barbara, do you think that's a positive catalyst for the market?
I think it can be. Yeah, I think people are not expecting things to fall off a cliff because, you know, we had the 90-day pause with 10% tariffs and the market has made new highs with that, assuming that that's going to stick, or there may be something on the margins. We still don't know if there's going to be tariffs on semis or on pharma, but we think it seems to be the market saying, okay, there's more bark than bite here from the administration. So earnings should be okay. You're not gonna, I think you can see some little tweaking down, but it's setting up for a better second half and into next year. You know, even though the tax package, there's disagreement about that. I think it's it's not as stimulative as some think, but it's not going to be a drag, you know, and it should get passed. There's a lot of pressure for them to get it passed. And then you're going to have a focus on deregulation, you know, which should start to help some certain industries. We know that in the financial financials, how that's going to help. So it could be setting up for a decent next year and if if inflation stays tame, you know, there isn't. That's where the Fed is on hold, although it's interesting yesterday, Powell said in in some European meetings that, you know, they probably would have cut rates if not for the Trump tariffs, which is very interesting. And also when they had their meeting a couple weeks ago, they talked about probability of two more cuts this year. And certainly the probability for September cut is now 97, 98%. So that obviously is is good for the markets. So ironically, if we if we start to see bad job numbers, that could actually support the market because then they'll say the Fed will be cutting rates and we start the virtuous cycle all over again.
Powell is clearly, seems to be comfortable sitting tight for now, standing pat. Do you think that's the right call?
Yeah, I do. I do. I think it's, you know, he doesn't have the clarity yet. I think the economy has is strong, you know, weakening in some in some areas, but he's had the luxury, you know, to be able to wait and see, are the terrorists going to have an impact? They should be, you know, when you see the, you know, it really is a regressive tax. It will affect demand, you know, in what sectors and by how much? Because the consumer on average is pretty wealthy right now. We've had a huge creation in wealth, you know, since pre-COVID, people's homes, you know, most people, I think it's 70%, own their homes outright or have financing under 4%. So their balance sheets are in good shape for consumers and they still have jobs. That's key. That's why we're watching very closely. The Fed wants to see what the impact of all this on jobs, and certainly it looks like there's, you know, there's not big announcements on layoffs, but there's no real hiring either. You know, you just had the the Bureau of Labor Statistics come out and they they surveyed all the metro areas, metropolitan, and almost 75% were seeing more job losses than job creation. So there's things like that are showing things are slowing down. Will suddenly speed up? Doesn't look like it, but we don't know. And that's what I think the Fed is right to wait and see. And we should have some more information, some pretty good information the next month or two that the Fed can feel comfortable acting one way or the other.
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