How Much Lower Can Sugar Prices Go?
October world sugar futures (SBV25) present a selling opportunity on more price weakness.
See on the daily bar chart for October world sugar futures that prices are trending down and recently set a two-year low. The trend is the bears' friend. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the shorter-term moving averages I follow (9-day and 18-day) are in a bearish posture as the red 9-day is below the green 18-day and both lines are trending down. The sugar market bears have the firm near-term technical advantage to suggest still more downside price pressure in the near term.
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Fundamentally, sugar futures prices have been declining due to increased global sugar production, including from major producers Brazil, India and Thailand, and the resulting potential for a global sugar surplus.
A move in October world sugar futures below chart support at the June low of 16.20 cents would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 14.00 cents, or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above is located at 17.15 cents.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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