Unemployment inches up in Q1 2025 as jobs growth slows: MOM
SINGAPORE: Overall unemployment in Singapore rose slightly from 1.9 per cent at the end of 2024 to 2 per cent at the end of the first quarter of 2025, according to latest figures from the Manpower Ministry (MOM).
Data released on Friday (Jun 27) showed that the labour market continued to grow but dipped from 7,700 jobs in Q4 2024 to 2,400 in Q1 2025.
Job vacancies rose from 77,500 in December 2024 to 81,100 in March, reflecting a broad-based increase, although manufacturing showed signs of slowing labour demand.
MOM's labour market statistics for Q1 2025 did not capture the potential impact of the United States' tariff increases, as these were announced in early April.
The unemployment rate is part of a basket of indicators that MOM is watching closely to measure the tariffs' effects going forward, said Mr Ang Boon Heng, director of the manpower research and statistics department.
Other indicators are an increase in short work-weeks and temporary layoffs, which tend to be employers' first response before retrenchment, as well as a drop in job vacancies and weak hiring sentiment, he said.
The global economic outlook remains uncertain in the near term, but Singapore's external demand outlook has improved slightly as major economies have taken steps to deescalate trade tensions, said MOM.
SLOW TO HIRE AND FIRE
Jobs data from Q1 2025 suggest that while firms have exercised caution in hiring, they also held back from deeper workforce cuts, reflecting a measured approach amid economic uncertainty, MOM said.
Businesses remained measured in their manpower outlook in forward-looking polls the ministry conducted in April and May – after the US tariff announcement hike and subsequent 90-day pause on tariff collection above 10 per cent. The universal application of 10 per cent reciprocal tariffs is still in effect.
There was a modest increase in hiring intentions, with 40.5 per cent of firms surveyed in Q1 2025 indicating they planned to hire for the next quarter. This rose to 42.2 per cent of those polled in April and May over their third-quarter hiring plans.
MOM pointed out that the increase was largely driven by the professional and financial services sectors, while hiring sentiment softened in most other sectors.
Resident employment growth came in at 300 jobs in Q1 2025, mainly in the sectors of health and social services, and financial and insurance services.
There was a decline in resident employment in the professional services, and the information and communications sector.
The mild increase in resident jobs was not surprising given the already high labour force participation and employment rates in Singapore, said an MOM spokesperson.
Growth in non-resident jobs was led by work permit holders in positions like bus and truck drivers, which are less likely to attract resident applicants, according to the ministry.
UNEMPLOYMENT UP, RETRENCHMENT DOWN
There was an increase in the overall unemployment rate - 2.9 per cent in December 2024 to 3.1 per cent for citizens in March - and from 2.8 per cent to 2.9 per cent for residents between that period.
The resident long-term unemployment rate also inched up to 0.9 per cent this March, after holding steady at 0.8 per cent over the past quarters from March 2024.
This figure, which measures residents who have been jobless for at least 25 weeks, remained comparable to non-recessionary norms of 0.6 to 0.9 per cent, said MOM.
The ministry highlighted an increase in long-term unemployment in residents below 30, rising from 0.9 per cent in December 2024 to 1.2 per cent in March.
Seniors aged 50 to 59 also experienced an increase in long-term unemployment from 1 per cent in December 2024 to 1.1 per cent in March, and from 0.8 per cent to 1 per cent between that period for those aged 60 and above.
Retrenchments fell from 3,680 in the previous quarter to 3,590 in Q1 2025, and there were fewer employees placed on short work-week or temporary layoffs – from 660 in the previous quarter to 570 in Q1 2025.
The rate of residents re-entering employment within six months of retrenchment also improved from 58.1 per cent in the previous quarter to 60.6 per cent in Q1 2025.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CNA
an hour ago
- CNA
Shares firm in Asia as US-Canada trade talks resume
SYDNEY :Asia shares firmed on Monday as signs of progress in a trade standoff between the United States and Canada helped risk sentiment, while the dollar dipped on concerns U.S. jobs data will show enough weakness to justify larger rate cuts. Canada on Sunday said it had rescinded its digital services tax in a bid to advance trade negotiations, bowing to pressure from President Donald Trump. The talks are aimed at getting a deal done by July 21, extending Trump's original July 9 deadline for his "reciprocal" tariffs. Officials have suggested most deals could now be done by the September 1 Labor Day holiday. Investors were also keeping a wary eye on the progress of a huge U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by Trump's preferred July 4 deadline. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the nation's debt, testing foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries. There was no doubting the demand for the U.S. tech sector and megacap growth stocks including Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon. Nasdaq futures rose another 0.4 per cent, while S&P 500 e-minis added 0.3 per cent. EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.2 per cent, while FTSE futures were flat and DAX futures gained 0.3 per cent. The bullish sentiment spilled over into Japan's Nikkei which rose 1.6 per cent, while South Korean stocks gained 0.8 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.2 per cent. Chinese blue chips edged up 0.2 per cent, as surveys showed manufacturing improved slightly in June while service activity picked up. A holiday on Friday means U.S. payrolls are a day early, with analysts forecasting a rise of 110,000 in June with the jobless rate ticking up to the highest in almost a year at 4.3 per cent. The resilience of the labour market is a major reason the majority of Federal Reserve members say they can afford to wait on cutting rates until they can gauge the true impact of tariffs on inflation, so a weak report would stoke speculation of a rate cut in July rather than September. "While initial jobless claims retreated somewhat from their recent high, continuing claims jumped higher yet again," noted Michael Feroli, head of U.S. economics at JPMorgan. "Consumers' assessment of labor market conditions also deteriorated in the latest confidence report." "Both of these developments suggest that the unemployment rate in June should tick up to 4.3 per cent, with a significant risk of reaching 4.4 per cent." The latter outcome would likely see futures push up the chance of a July easing from the current 18 per cent and price in more than the present 63 basis points of cuts for this year. DOLLAR DOLDRUMS Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have an opportunity to repeat his cautious outlook when he joins several other central bank chiefs at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra on Tuesday. The prospect of an eventual policy easing has helped Treasuries weather worries about the U.S. budget deficit and the huge amount of borrowing it entails. Yields on 10-year Treasuries were steady at 3.28 per cent, having fallen 9 basis points last week. The dollar has not fared so well, in part due to concerns tariffs and chaotic policies from the White House will drag on economic growth and erode the country's claim to exceptionalism. The euro was near its highest since September 2021 at $1.1727, having climbed 1.7 per cent last week, while sterling stood near a similar peak at $1.3722. The dollar was down 0.3 per cent on the yen at 144.14, and slipped 0.1 per cent on the Canadian dollar to 1.3665 following the trade news. The dollar index eased to 97.146. James Reilly, a senior markets economist at Capital Economics, noted the dollar had fallen by more at this stage in the year than in any previous year since the U.S. moved to a free-floating exchange rate in 1973. "At this point, further weakness could become self-reinforcing as underhedged European/Asian portfolios chase the move," he added. "So, we suspect that this could be a pivotal period for the greenback – either it turns around here or there is another 5 per cent or so fall around the corner." In commodity markets, the general revival in risk sentiment has undermined gold, which hovered at $3,279 an ounce and further away from April's record top of $3,500. Oil prices continued to struggle on concerns about plans for increased output from OPEC+, which contributed to a 12 per cent slide last week.
CNA
an hour ago
- CNA
Japan factory output rises, but slower than expected as US tariffs threat looms
TOKYO: Japanese factory output rose at a slower-than-expected pace in May, government data showed on Monday (Jun 30), as sweeping US tariffs were threatening to derail the country's already fragile economic recovery. Industrial output rose 0.5 per cent in May from the previous month, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) showed, less than a median market forecast for a 3.5 per cent rise. Manufacturers surveyed by METI expect seasonally adjusted output to rise 0.3 per cent in June and fall 0.7 per cent in July. "It's necessary to pay close attention to the worsening trend in sentiment (among manufacturers on) production planning," a METI official said. Tokyo is scrambling to find ways to get Washington to exempt its automakers from automobile industry-specific tariffs of 25 per cent, which are severely impacting the country's manufacturing sector. Japan also faces a 24 per cent "reciprocal" tariff rate starting on Jul 9 unless it can negotiate a deal with Washington. Motor vehicle production went up by 2.5 per cent and shipments jumped 10.5 per cent in May from a month prior, the data showed. Some manufacturers had moved up their shipments because of the tariffs, the METI official said. The number of firms mentioning that the tariffs had an impact on their production or shipment increased slightly from April, the official said. "Exports are likely to remain sluggish and production indices are expected to continue show weakness in response to the global economic slowdown," said Yutaro Suzuki, an economist at Daiwa Securities. The hit from US tariffs could derail a lacklustre recovery in Japan's economy, the world's fourth largest. The economy shrank in January to March, the first contraction in a year, due to subdued private consumption. The US tariffs also complicate the Bank of Japan's efforts to raise still-low interest rates and reduce a balance sheet that has ballooned to roughly the size of Japan's economy. "The poor run of data will keep the central bank on hold for the time being," said Stefan Angrick, head of Japan and Frontier markets Economics at Moody's Analytics. "Until there's progress on US-Japan trade, Japan's manufacturers will remain in the doldrums, with few clear sources of support."
CNA
an hour ago
- CNA
Japan's food inflation to intensify in July, survey shows
TOKYO: Japanese households will get no respite from rising living costs with a five-fold increase expected in the number of food items set to experience price rises in July, a private think tank survey showed on Monday (Jun 30). The finding highlights mounting inflationary pressure in Japan's once deflation-prone economy, which some policymakers view as an early sign of widespread, sustained price rises that may require raising interest rates further. A survey conducted on 195 major food makers showed they expect to hike prices for 2,105 items in July - up fivefold from year-before levels - by an average 15 per cent, Teikoku Databank said. Aside from rising raw material prices and utility bills, companies cited increasing transportation and labour costs as reasons for the price hikes, the report released by Teikoku Databank showed. "The momentum for food and beverage price hikes is stronger in 2025 than that of the previous year," the report said. Prices were set to rise for a range of items including those made of rice, as well as chocolate, chewing gum, potato chips and pasta sauce. Among companies that announced plans to hike prices from Jul 1, Ajinomoto AGF plans to raise prices for its coffee items by about 25 to 55 per cent, and Meiji will increase prices for cheese and milk by up to 11 per cent. A renewed rise in crude oil prices due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East could spark a revival of the price hike rush Japan experienced in 2022, when prices increased for a total of 25,768 food and beverage items, Teikoku Databank said. After raising its short-term policy rate to 0.5 per cent in January, the BOJ has kept borrowing costs steady despite core consumer inflation hitting a more than two-year high of 3.7 per cent in May, exceeding its 2 per cent target for well over three years. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need to move cautiously in raising rates until inflation is driven more by solid consumption and higher wages, rather than rising raw material costs. But the central bank's argument that rising food and fuel costs are likely temporary, and not a justification for raising rates, is being tested by persistent rises in the cost of living that may affect public perceptions of future price moves, analysts say. The BOJ's quarterly "tankan" survey on companies, due on Tuesday, will highlight the challenge it faces in balancing mounting inflationary pressure, and risks to Japan's fragile economy from steep US tariffs. Analysts polled by Reuters expect an index measuring big manufacturers' business sentiment to worsen to +10 in the June survey from +12 in March. The focus would be on whether companies will retain their solid capital expenditure plans despite uncertainty over US trade policy. Big firms surveyed in the tankan are expected to increase capital expenditure by 10 per cent in fiscal 2025 from year before levels, the Reuters poll showed.
