Can Scientists Predict Earthquakes? Here's What We Know
The epicentre of the earthquake was near the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, with scientists saying that bigger aftershocks cannot be ruled out.
The quake was the biggest earthquake since the devastating event in 2011, which caused a tsunami that sent the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant into meltdown. The US Geological Survey (USGS), 2011 earthquake was the largest earthquake ever recorded in Japan and the fourth largest recorded worldwide since 1900.
Official data stated that the number of those confirmed dead or listed as missing from the 2011 disaster was about 18,500. Another data estimated it to be at least 20,000. As per reports, the majority of those killed were drowning victims of the tsunami waves.
Can We Predict Earthquakes?
No, USGS scientists cannot predict earthquakes. While they said that they can calculate the probability of a significant earthquake occurring in a specific area within a certain timeframe, predicting the exact time, location, and magnitude of an earthquake is currently not possible.
Why Is Earthquake Prediction Challenging?
According to USGS, an earthquake prediction must define three elements: the date and time, the location, and the magnitude.
Earthquakes result from complex geological processes.
Faults are hidden beneath the Earth's surface.
Stress builds up over long periods, making it difficult to determine when an earthquake will occur.
"Stating that an earthquake is going to occur today is not really 'predicting earthquakes'. To date, they cannot be predicted. But anyone, on any day, could make this statement and it would be true. This is because several million earthquakes occur annually; thereby, thousands occur each day, although most are too small to be located," USGS wrote on its website.
What Can Be Done?
USGS said that its scientists focus on assessing earthquake hazards and risks.
They develop earthquake forecasts based on historical data and geological research.
These forecasts help inform building codes, emergency preparedness, and public education.
"The USGS focuses its efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards and by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions," it wrote.
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