Asia: Markets track Wall Street rally on Fed rate cut bets
The gains tracked a rally on Wall Street, where traders rediscovered their mojo following Friday's sell-off that was fuelled by news that fewer-than-expected American jobs were created in July, while the previous two months' figures were revised down sharply.
The reading raised concerns the world's biggest economy was in worse shape than expected, though it also fanned bets the Fed will slash in September, with markets pricing the chance of a 25-basis-point reduction at about 95 per cent, according to Bloomberg.
There is also talk that bank officials could go for twice as much as that.
'The narrative flipped fast: soft jobs equals soft Fed, and soft Fed equals risk-on,' said Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.
But he warned that 'if cuts are coming because the labour market is slipping from 'cooling' to 'cracking', then we're skating closer to the edge than we care to admit'.
BT in your inbox
Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.
Sign Up
Sign Up
He added: 'That dichotomy - between rate cuts as stimulus and rate cuts as warning flare - is now front and centre.
'If the Fed moves proactively to shield markets from the tariff storm and weak labour, the equity rally has legs. But if policymakers are reacting to a sharper downturn that is in full swing, the runway shortens quickly.'
In early trade, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta were all in the green.
However, while there is a broad expectation that the Fed will cut rates, Lazard chief market strategist Ronald Temple remained sceptical.
'I continue to believe the Fed will not reduce rates at all this year given rising inflation caused by tariffs and a relatively stable unemployment rate,' he wrote.
'I would align with the majority of the FOMC members who believe it is more appropriate to hold policy constant until there is greater clarity in terms of the effects of tariffs and stricter immigration enforcement on inflation and employment.'
Traders were keeping an eye on trade talks between Washington and dozens of its trade partners after Trump imposed tariffs of between 10 and 41 per cent on them.
Among those to strike a deal is India, which Trump on Monday threatened to hit with 'substantially' higher rates over its purchases of Russian oil. AFP
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Straits Times
an hour ago
- Straits Times
Trump's sharp India criticism on tariffs, Russia oil corner Modi as rift deepens
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox - Any expectation of the camaraderie that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoyed with US President Donald Trump during the latter's first term in office – united in part over the common threat of China – has all but evaporated. India underestimated just how transactional Mr Trump would be in his second term in power, as he has made little distinction between friends and adversaries. Ties have unpredictably and quickly gone south as Mr Trump has torn into India over its long-standing ties with Russia and the slow pace of negotiations for an India-US trade deal. The strain in US-India ties is a challenge for Mr Modi, who also faces domestic calls not to cave into Mr Trump's demands on trade and oil imports from Russia. India has benefitted from cheap Russian energy imports, which the US leader claims is helping to fund Russia's invasion of Ukraine . Mr Trump's vow to 'substantially raise' tariffs on Indian exports to the US from the already substantial 25 per cent because of New Delhi's Russian oil imports, is an indication of his administration's priorities in achieving broader geopolitical goals, say analysts. 'This (oil sanctions) is obviously a pressure tactic the US is using on Russia to get an outcome of its choice in the Ukraine war. We are collateral damage,' Mr Ashok Malik, a partner at the Asia Group business consultancy, told The Straits Times. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore More train rides taken in first half-year, but overall public transport use stays below 2019 levels Singapore BlueSG needs time to develop software, refresh fleet, say ex-insiders after winding-down news Asia Cambodia-Thailand border clash a setback for Asean: Vivian Balakrishnan Singapore 'She had a whole life ahead of her': Boyfriend mourns Yishun fatal crash victim Singapore Doctor hounded ex-girlfriend, threatened to share her intimate photos, abducted her off street Asia Trump's transactional foreign policy fuels 'US scepticism' in Taiwan Business Women on corporate boards give firms a competitive advantage, says Australian Governor-General Singapore CEO of sports car distributor accused of offences including multiple counts of false trading 'I think things are very challenging at this juncture. It is the most challenging in a long, long time,' Mr Malik said. Mr Trump came into power promising he would end the war in Ukraine on his first day in office. But a long-term ceasefire has not materialised, and Russia has instead intensified its strikes on Ukraine, much to Mr Trump's frustration. India-Russia-US nexus 'India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits,' Mr Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Aug 4. 'They don't care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.' Mr Trump has lumped Russia and India together, calling them 'dead economies' in another Truth Social post on July 31, despite the fact that India is the world's fourth-largest economy by nominal GDP after the US, China and Germany. India has a longstanding relationship with Russia dating ba ck to the Cold War, and is the among the largest importer of Russian oil along with China . It imported about 1.75 million barrels a day from January to June 2025, up 1 per cent from a year ago, according to Reuters. On Aug 4, the Ministry of External Affairs called the US President and European Union 's targeting of India for buying Russian oil 'unjustified and unreasonable.' 'India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the conflict. The United States at that time actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability,' the MEA said in a statement. 'India's imports are meant to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs to the Indian consumer. They are a necessity compelled by the global market situation. However, it is revealing that the very nations criticizing India are themselves indulging in trade with Russia. ' The European Union had imposed sanctions on Russian-backed Indian refiner Nayara and banned the import of refined oil made from Russian crude. In particular, New Delhi called out the United States for its continual imports from Russia of 'uranium hexafluoride for its nuclear industry, palladium for its EV industry, fertilisers as well as chemicals.' Mr Trump is not the first US president to disapprove of India's ties with Iran and Russia. But previous US leaders like Mr Joe Biden and Mr Barack Obama chose to look the other way due to the strategic calculation of India's importance as a fast-growing economy a nd as a counter to China in America's Indo-Pacific strategy. In any case, India's ties with Russia are also not what they were once, as Russia has drawn closer to China and Pakistan, while India has grown closer to the West. The South Asian giant has also been diversifying its defence weapon purchases to include products from the US and Israel. But that doesn't mean India can walk away from the Russia relationship as desired by Mr Trump, according to Mr Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank. 'We need warm relations. India is a growing economy; it is going to consume natural resources and Russia is a country that has every element in huge abundance. We will end up buying a lot of resources,' he said. US-India tariff negotiations Mr Trump is also frustrated that a trade deal with India to his liking has so far not materialised. He has used tariffs to force countries that have a trade surplus with the US into what he claims is a more reciprocal bilateral trade relationship. The US is India's largest export market, with exports reaching US$86.51 billion (S$111.37 billion) from April 2024 to March 2025. India's imports from the US were US$45.33 billion for the same period, according to Indian government figures . While both countries are still locked in negotiations, New Delhi has refused to grant the concessions that the Trump administration is seeking, including the opening up of heavily protected agriculture and dairy sectors to US imports. More than 60 per cent of the Indian population depends on these two sectors for their livelihoods in some form or another. Farmers have opposed opening up of the agriculture and dairy sectors , arguing they would not be able to withstand competition from US agriculture. Unlike US farms, India's farms are small, fragmented and hardly mechanised . In another post on Truth Social on July 30 , Mr Trump criticised India for imposing the most 'strenuous and obnoxious' tariffs in the world. India's refusal to give in to Trump for now may also be seen as a recognition that it is not just trade interests which are at stake. 'Trump has not only unleashed a trade war but is also deploying commercial instruments for geopolitical ends,' India's former foreign secretary Shyam Saran wrote in The Indian Express newspaper on Aug 4. 'These actions threaten India's core interests and its ability to follow a policy of strategic autonomy, which every government, irrespective of its political colour, has remained wedded to since Independence,' he said. 'We should not treat the current disruption in India-US relations as just a trade dispute. It is much more than that.' Mr Modi's response to Mr Trump's belligerent language, which has pushed the Indian prime minister into a corner domestically, took a nationalistic tone. 'The world economy is facing instability and uncertainty. In such times, countries are focusing solely on their own interests. India, too, is on the path to becoming the world's third-largest economy and must remain alert to its own economic priorities,' Mr Modi said in his constituency of Varanasi on Aug 2, even before Mr Trump's latest escalation. 'At a time when the world is going through uncertainty, let us take a pledge to sell only Swadeshi (made in India) goods from our shops and markets. Promoting made-in-India goods will be the truest service to the country.' Political watchers noted that it would be very difficult for the Indian Prime Minister to give any large concessions in the trade deal, given the growing anger within India towards Mr Trump. Even the right-wing Hindu nationalist ecosystem, which has been very supportive of the US president, is angry at what it perceives as a series of other slights to India. This includes Mr Trump's statements on how he engineered the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, after the neighbours were embroiled in a military conflict over a terror attack in Kashmir, and Mr Trump's subsequent hosting of Pakistan's Army chief Asim Muneer in the White House. 'Mr Modi doesn't have much space to manoeuvre on the trade deal. The economic and political costs of accepting US demand are something this government will find difficult to swallow,' said Dr Biswajit Dhar, a trade expert and former professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University. 'We have to wait and watch. What the Trump administration has done is push India into a corner.'
Business Times
an hour ago
- Business Times
Trump says banks discriminate against his supporters
[WASHINGTON] US President Donald Trump on Tuesday (Aug 5) said he believes that banks discriminate against him and his supporters, adding that Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase had previously refused to accept his deposits. 'They totally discriminate against, I think, me maybe even more, but they discriminate against many conservatives,' he told CNBC in an interview. 'I think the word might be Trump supporters more than conservatives.' Trump made the comments when asked about a report by the Wall Street Journal that said he planned to punish banks that discriminated against conservatives, but did not address the order specifically. The order instructs regulators to review banks for 'politicised or unlawful debanking' practices, according to a draft reviewed by Reuters. 'Well, they did discriminate,' Trump said of actions taken by JPMorgan Chase after his first term in office. 'I had hundreds of millions, I had many, many accounts loaded up with cash ... and they told me, 'I'm sorry sir, we can't have you. You have 20 days to get out.'' Trump said he subsequently tried to deposit funds with Bank of America and was also refused, and eventually split the cash among a number of smaller banks. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'The banks discriminated against me very badly,' he said. In a statement, JPMorgan did not address the president's specific claim that it had discriminated against him. 'We don't close accounts for political reasons, and we agree with President Trump that regulatory change is desperately needed,' JPMorgan said. 'We commend the White House for addressing this issue and look forward to working with them to get this right.' Bank of America declined to comment. Trump said, without providing evidence, that he believed that the banks' refusal to take his deposits indicated that the administration of former President Joe Biden had encouraged banking regulators to 'destroy Trump.' The Wall Street Journal reported late on Monday that the expected executive order would instruct regulators to investigate whether any financial institutions breach the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, antitrust laws or consumer financial protection laws by dropping customers for political reasons. It said the order could be signed as early as this week, authorising monetary penalties, consent decrees or other disciplinary measures against violators. The White House had no immediate comment on the reported order. Trump in January said the CEOs of JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America denied services to conservatives. At the time, the two banks denied making banking decisions based on politics. REUTERS
CNA
an hour ago
- CNA
US dollar rises as market eyes Fed chair successor
NEW YORK/MILAN :The U.S. dollar rose against most currencies on Tuesday, but remained within striking distance of Friday's lows, with the market still in consolidation mode. The market is focused on President Donald Trump's nominations to the Federal Reserve Board after the resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler last Friday as well as his choice for commissioner of Bureau of Labor Statistics. Trump on Tuesday said he would announce decisions soon on a short-term replacement for Kugler, including his pick for the next Fed chair. He ruled out U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as a contender to replace current chief Jerome Powell whose term ends in May 2026. Bessent wanted to remain in his current job. The White House is looking at four candidates to replace Powell. "These last two days we have been consolidating. And the data this week doesn't really matter so much. With the Q2 GDP out, most of the data is old news," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist, at Bannockburn Forex. "What we're waiting for is the next day or two, people are expecting Trump to announce who's going to replace the retiring Fed governor, and who's going to be at the BLS." Trump said on Sunday he would announce a new BLS commissioner within three or four days. Analysts said Kugler's exit and the firing of the BLS's commissioner could harden views that the Federal Open Market Committee's independence is protected, recalling that the new appointee will be just one vote on the FOMC. Tuesday's data, meanwhile, had little impact on the currency market. U.S. services sector activity unexpectedly showed a flat outcome in July, with little change in orders and a further weakening in employment even as input costs climbed by the most in nearly three years. The Institute for Supply Management said on Tuesday its non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) slipped to 50.1 last month from 50.8 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI would rise to 51.5. A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. RATE CUTS The euro was last down 0.2 per cent against the dollar at $1.1553. That pushed the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six counterparts with the euro as the biggest component, up 0.30 per cent at 98.88, after touching a one-week low earlier in the session at 98.609. Weak U.S. jobs data last Friday had boosted bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts and triggered a sharp dollar selloff. U.S. rate futures are now pricing in an 88 per cent chance of the Fed cutting rates in its next meeting in September, compared with 35 per cent a week earlier, according to the CME's FedWatch. They also indicate 60 basis points (bps) of cuts by end-December and 130 bps in rate declines by October 2026, 30 bps more than the levels seen on Friday before the U.S. jobs data. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver three consecutive 25 basis-point rate cuts starting in September, with a 50 basis-point move possible if the next jobs report shows a further rise in unemployment. The dollar rose 0.2 per cent to 147.42 yen, after minutes of a June policy meeting showed a few Bank of Japan board members said the central bank would consider resuming interest rate increases if trade frictions de-escalate. Sterling was flat against the dollar, as traders expect the Bank of England to maintain its rate guidance at this week's policy meeting. It was last little changed at $1.3292. The focus, however, remains on tariff uncertainties, after the latest duties imposed on imports from dozens of countries last week by Trump increased worries about the health of the global economy. The 15 per cent tariff that European Union goods face when entering the U.S. is all-inclusive, a senior EU official said on Tuesday. The Swiss franc, on the other hand, was flat at 0.8072 per dollar, after dropping 0.5 per cent in the previous session. But it was still above the levels seen before Friday's data at around 0.8128. Switzerland is looking to make a "more attractive offer" in trade talks with Washington, to avert a 39 per cent U.S. import tariff on Swiss goods that threatens its export-driven economy. Currency bid prices at 5 August 03:11 p.m. GMT Descript RIC Last U.S. Pct YTD High Low ion Close Chang Pct Bid Bid Previous e Session Dollar 98.714 98.63 0.1 per cent -9.01 per cent 99.082 98. index 584 Euro/Dol 1.1576 1.1573 0.02 per cent 11.8 per cent $1.158 $1. lar 8 152 8 Dollar/Y 147.36 146.984 0.33 per cent -6.28 per cent 147.82 146 en 5 .9 Euro/Yen 170.59 170.17 0.25 per cent 4.52 per cent 170.65 169 .83 Dollar/S 0.8067 0.8081 -0.15 -11.09 0.8118 0.8 wiss per cent per cent 069 Sterling 1.3304 1.3287 0.14 per cent 6.38 per cent $1.330 $1. /Dollar 7 326 Dollar/C 1.378 1.378 0.01 per cent -4.16 per cent 1.381 1.3 anadian 767 Aussie/D 0.6466 0.6467 0 per cent 4.51 per cent $0.647 $0. ollar 9 645 Euro/Swi 0.9338 0.935 -0.13 -0.59 per cent 0.936 0.9 ss per cent 331 Euro/Ste 0.8699 0.8708 -0.1 per cent 5.15 per cent 0.8714 0.8 rling 68 NZ 0.5897 0.5908 -0.28 5.28 per cent $0.592 0.5 Dollar/D per cent 2 884 ollar Dollar/N 10.2617 10.2655 -0.04 -9.71 per cent 10.290 10. orway per cent 5 248 Euro/Nor 11.8802 11.8823 -0.02 0.95 per cent 11.886 11. way per cent 839 8 Dollar/S 9.6578 9.6518 0.06 per cent -12.34 9.6929 9.6 weden per cent 382 Euro/Swe 11.1837 11.1707 0.13 per cent -2.46 per cent 11.191 11. den 8 159 8
