Gold flat as dollar firms after US imposes fresh tariffs; jobs data in focus
FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold was steady at $3,289.79 per ounce, as of 0127 GMT. Bullion is down 1.4% so far this week.
* U.S. gold futures eased 0.3% to $3,340.20.
* The dollar index rose 0.1% to hover near a two-month peak hit on Thursday, making gold more expensive for other currency holders.
* Trump signed an executive order on Thursday imposing "reciprocal" tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from dozens of countries and foreign locations.
* He increased duties on Canadian goods to 35% from 25% for all products not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, but gave Mexico a 90-day reprieve to negotiate a broader deal.
* Asian shares fell on Friday after the U.S. slapped dozens of trading partners with steep tariffs.
* Focus now shifts to U.S. jobs data due later in the day for more cues on Federal Reserve's rate-cut path after the bank left rates unchanged earlier this week.
* Fed funds futures imply just a 39% chance of a rate cut in September, compared with 65% before the Fed meeting, according to the CME's FedWatch.
* Gold thrives in a low-interest rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset.
* SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.09% to 954.51 tonnes on Thursday from 955.37 tonnes on Wednesday.
* Spot silver held steady at $37.10 per ounce, platinum fell 0.3% to $1,308.85 and palladium rose 0.9% to $1,216.25.
DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 0145 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final July 0600 UK Nationwide house price mm, yy July 0750 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI July 0755 Germany HCOB Mfg PMI July 0800 EU HCOB Mfg Final PMI July 0830 UK S&P GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI July 0900 EU HICP Flash YY July 0900 EU HICP-X F, E, A, T Flash MM, YY July 1230 US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate July 1230 US Average Earnings YY July 1345 US Average Earnings YY July 1400 US ISM Manufacturing PMI, U Mich Sentiment Final July
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Zawya
37 minutes ago
- Zawya
Trump's tariffs drive global trade shakeup, fuel multipolar shift
Donald Trump's sweeping new tariffs are not just reshaping global trade—they are accelerating the rise of a multipolar global economy. The shift away from a US-dominated system is no longer theoretical, it is active and accelerating, according to an expert. "Multipolarity now defines the direction of global trade," stated Nigel Green, the CEO of deVere Group, one of the world's largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations. "These tariffs are forcing countries to rewire their trade, capital, and strategic priorities. The world is moving toward multiple centres of economic power and influence," he added. Effective August 7, the US will impose tariffs on nearly every major trading partner. Countries running a trade deficit with the US face a 15% floor. Canada has been hit with 35%. Brazil, 50%. India now faces a 25% rate, alongside a financial penalty for continuing energy and defence ties with Russia - despite being positioned by Trump as a close ally. "India's inclusion shows how quickly partners can become pressure points. This pressure is already nudging New Delhi toward deeper cooperation with trade rival Beijing. The consequences will be long-term," he added. While trade deals with China and Mexico remain under negotiation, the broader international response is already unfolding. "Beijing, Moscow, and increasingly Delhi are co-ordinating more closely on trade, infrastructure and investment. Long-time allies like Switzerland and Taiwan are reassessing risk. Many governments are seeking to reduce exposure to Washington's economic leverage altogether," stated Green. "This isn't a rerun of past trade disputes. It is a global shift away from reliance on the US as the central node. New trade networks are forming by necessity, not necessarily by preference," he noted. Diplomatic talks with China have intensified in recent months, with meetings in Geneva, London and Stockholm. Beijing is focused on securing a continued freeze on US semiconductor export controls. Washington is demanding action on fentanyl, greater access for American firms, and increased Chinese purchases of US goods. But the real story lies beyond the negotiating table. "Tariffs are being baked in as permanent features of the new economic order. Countries are responding by building systems that can operate without US permission," pointed out Green. The US tariff list now stretches across continents. Switzerland faces 39%. South Africa, Libya, Algeria, Serbia, and several others between 30% and 41%. Taiwan, Israel, Pakistan, and Norway are all in the 15–20% range. The sweep is deliberate -and global. "Markets are adjusting. Capital is shifting. Supply chains are realigning around regional strength, not global scale," stated the expert. "The dollar remains dominant, but its influence is no longer unchallenged," he added. According to Green, central banks across the globe are pursuing alternatives. "Reserve diversification is accelerating. Regional trading blocs are pushing forward with new payments infrastructure, less reliant on Washington's rule," he noted. "This fragmentation is the new baseline. The post-war consensus on trade and financial cooperation is fading. What replaces it is a world of multiple economic power and influence centres, each with their own rules and reach," he stated. "For investors, the implications are direct. Correlations are weakening. Policy risk is climbing. Exposure to geopolitical realignment is no longer abstract, it's active," explained Green. "Anyone still expecting a return to the old system is behind the curve. This is the direction of travel now. Global trade will be multipolar. Capital allocation must reflect that," he noted. The deVere CEO said the Trump tariffs move locks in a new world order where influence is distributed, and alignment is increasingly transactional. "For global investors, it marks the start of a generation-defining realignment," he stated. "From here, economic and trade power is going to become more fragmented - and competition for it more intense," he added. -TradeArabia News Service Copyright 2025 Al Hilal Publishing and Marketing Group Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
The National
2 hours ago
- The National
EU-US deal won't really happen - the reason is in the details
Energy was one of the most freely traded goods in the post-Second World War era, even behind the Iron Curtain. A flood of sanctions has eroded that in recent years. But are the latest EU-US trade deal and Donald Trump's tariff threats an even greater danger? Under Thursday's trade pact, the EU has agreed to buy an extra $250 billion of US energy each year until 2027, and invest $600 billion in the US by 2028. Separately, Mr Trump has proposed 'secondary tariffs' on countries buying Russian oil, notably India. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told China that it would face 100 per cent tariffs if it continued to purchase Russian oil, for which it is the biggest customer. The reality of the European deal can be dismissed in detail. Impossible numbers The bloc imported $76 billion of American coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil last year. The US exported $318 billion of energy to all its customers, and EU customers imported nearly $407 billion of energy from all suppliers. So, the US would have to divert all its energy exports to Europe, and Europe would in turn have to buy almost exclusively from America. Yes, US LNG exports are set to rise substantially. Here are some easy gains in energy trade for the EU. The last remnants of the old Russian gas empire will be swept away, as Brussels plans to end imports from its hostile neighbour by 2027. But prices are likely to fall as new supply comes online over the next five years, from Qatar, the UAE, Canada and elsewhere as well as the US. Japan and South Korea have also agreed to buy more American energy products. Meanwhile, the EU's bulk energy buys will probably keep falling, as renewables and electric vehicles meet more of its needs. 'Europe' does not buy energy – its companies and consumers do. There is no way for Brussels to redirect energy trade on the massive scale required to meet these commitments. Big chunks of the imports are from Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan, tied into the EU by gas pipelines. These are not going to be diverted elsewhere, whatever the White House tries to dictate. Similarly, US companies decide whom to sell to on commercial, not political grounds. Here, admittedly, some combination of arm-twisting and subsidies might divert trade. But that is more likely to relate to large, visible, single inward investments such as Japan's reported interest in the $44 billion Alaska LNG project. One-trick trade pony European companies would invest in renewable, hydrogen and electric vehicle projects in the US – but these are undercut by the current administration's hostility. The withdrawal of tax incentives, increased barriers to receiving permits, and onerous rules on foreign content, make them unappealing. As Nippon Steel found out in its purchase of US Steel, sizeable foreign acquisitions of American companies are also likely to face unreasonable opposition and an opaque process of lobbying to win approval. The reliance on energy sales shows the US to be a one-trick trade pony – or at best, three tricks, including agricultural goods and weapons. Its other goods are not very competitive – gas-guzzling cars and planes that fall out of the sky – and will become even less so as tariffs drive up input costs for key materials such as aluminium, steel and copper. Ultimately, such trade commitments by Europe are not going to raise US oil and gas output. So, even if fulfilled, they just shuffle energy trade around. Sanctions could be a different matter. Mr Trump could execute his threat of 100 per cent tariffs against India and China if they persist in buying Russian oil. This is a bizarre approach to defeating Moscow's war against Ukraine, instead of imposing stronger sanctions on specific customers and shippers, which is the same approach used against Iran. Beijing will not back down; it cannot allow its economic model, its foreign policy, its alignment with Moscow, to be dictated by Washington. It buys about two million barrels per day of Russian oil. New Delhi might concede, though. It has not changed its policy yet, but Reuters reported that Indian oil refineries had paused purchases of Russian oil while matters are worked out. India's imports of Russian oil averaged 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of this year. The third major customer, Turkey, takes about 250,000 barrels daily. If India and Turkey drop out, China would no doubt step up its purchases of Russian oil, but it would not take all the remainder. This is partly for logistical reasons, but also political. It would gain further leverage over its junior ally, and could extract generous discounts, as it does from Iran, where it is essentially the only customer. So, there would probably be an overall reduction in Russian oil exports. The gap would be filled by Opec+, depending on its policy decisions, and potentially by higher US output. But US oil production will only increase if prices rise substantially. Mr Trump has shown himself acutely sensitive to inflation and to the concerns of American drivers, preferring lower rather than higher prices, to the discomfort of his supporters in Texas. So how does this all tie together? Less Russian oil and gas means more room for Gulf suppliers. If they end up sending less to Europe to fill a gap in India, or if prices rise enough to boost American production, the US may then supply more to Europe, cosmetically satisfying part of the trade deal. The inconsistency and volatile, contradictory messages emanating from the White House make all this very hard to evaluate. There's a good chance that the impending 'secondary tariffs' never materialise. Yet what is clear that a free and liquid energy market is being replaced by a constrained and politicised one.
Zawya
2 hours ago
- Zawya
Goldman keeps Brent oil forecast, but flags downside risks to demand
Goldman Sachs on Sunday reiterated its oil price forecast with Brent averaging $64 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $56 in 2026, but expects an increasing range of risks to its baseline estimates from recent developments. "Increasing pressure on Russia and Iran sanctioned oil supply poses an upside risk to our price forecast, especially given the faster-than-expected normalization in spare capacity," the investment bank said in an August 3 note. However, Goldman flagged a downside risk to its 800,000 barrels per day average annual demand growth forecast in 2025-2026 due to the increase in U.S. tariff rates, threats of additional secondary tariffs and weak U.S. economic activity data. The weaker data "suggests that the U.S. economy is now growing at a below-potential pace", which the bank's economists' feel has increased the chance of a recession in the next 12 months, the note said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies such as Russia, known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share. "While OPEC+ policy remains flexible, we assume OPEC+ will keep its production quota unchanged after September as we expect the pace of builds in OECD commercial stocks to accelerate and seasonal demand tailwinds to fade away," Goldman said. Brent crude futures were trading at $69.27 a barrel at 0115 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $66.96 a barrel. "We continue to see limited risk of large disruptions in Russia supply given the large volumes of Russian imports, the possibility for deepening price discounts to maintain demand, and continuing reported eagerness of the key buyers - China and India," analysts at Goldman Sachs said. Indian state refiners have stopped buying Russian oil in the past week as discounts narrowed this month and U.S. President Donald Trump warned countries not to purchase oil from Moscow, industry sources said.
