Despite June deficit, July to get normal rain
Despite a weak start to the southwest monsoon in June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) remains optimistic about the monsoon prospects for Goa in July — traditionally the wettest month in the state.
'The forecast for this season indicates normal rainfall for July,' said IMD director Nahush Kulkarni.
'Based on a 30-year average, July typically brings the highest rainfall, with Goa experiencing around 26 rainy days in the month. On average, each of these days records rainfall exceeding 2.5mm,' he told
TOI
.
Even as the monsoon made an early entrance into Goa on May 25, the rainfall throughout June this season has turned out to be surprisingly scanty, leaving parts of the state with a rain deficit.
According to the IMD, Panaji has recorded a rainfall deficit of 121.7mm as of 8.30am on June 30. Mormugao has experienced a higher shortfall of 291.4mm, raising eyebrows among meteorologists.
'This stark contrast comes at a time when the country as a whole is celebrating a robust monsoon, with India recording an 8% surplus in rainfall so far,' said meteorologist and retired scientist from the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), Ramesh Kumar.
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Dharbandora is the only rain gauge station that crossed the 1,000mm mark, recording a seasonal total of 1,119.2 mm from June 1 to 30. Other rain gauge stations closely following behind are Sanguem with 980.6 mm, Valpoi with 978.5 mm, and Ponda with 950.2 mm of rainfall recorded till the morning of June 30. The lowest seasonal total was recorded at Mormugao, with 500.3 mm of rainfall in one month.
He attributed the weak monsoon conditions over Goa to a lack of atmospheric systems such as the low-level jet stream—a fast-moving ribbon of air located about 1,500 metres above sea level.
When strong and well-placed, the LLJ channels moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea into the Indian subcontinent, fuelling rain-bearing clouds. 'Its absence, along with a lack of convective systems in both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, resulted in diminished monsoon activity over Goa,' he added.
He further said that a robust LLJ—especially one that passes through 15° north latitude, which intersects Goa—can be highly beneficial for the state.
There is still hope, however, that July could bring a turnaround. Kumar suggests that once the cross-equatorial flow strengthens and more convective systems form over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, Goa could see improved rainfall patterns.
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