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Hans India
15 minutes ago
- Hans India
5 key triggers for Sensex, Nifty next week; India-US trade deal, Q1 earnings, FPI flows
The Indian stock market is poised for a volatile week as multiple global and domestic cues unfold simultaneously. The top factors influencing investor sentiment include the anticipated India-US trade deal, the kick-off of Q1 FY26 earnings, foreign capital flows, monsoon progress, and the release of the US Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes. During the week ended July 4, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex slipped 0.70%, snapping their two-week winning streak. Profit-booking, foreign capital outflows, and uncertainty over trade negotiations between India and the US weighed on the indices. According to Ajit Mishra, SVP at Religare Broking, "Investors are cautious ahead of global trade deadlines and earnings. A potential interim trade agreement between India and the US may limit downside risks, but clear outcomes are crucial." While large-cap indices corrected, mid- and small-cap segments continued their upward march. The Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.5%, and the Smallcap 100 rose 0.3%, showing resilience amid broader volatility. Here are 5 major triggers for the markets in the coming week: 1. India-US Trade Deal The unresolved trade pact between India and the US remains a top market trigger. With US President Donald Trump's July 9 deadline approaching, investor anxiety is growing. Although Indian negotiators returned from Washington last week, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal reiterated that India will not commit to any deal unless it serves the national interest. A breakthrough could boost export-heavy sectors such as IT, pharma, and auto components. In contrast, any deadlock may dent near-term sentiment. 2. Q1 FY26 Earnings Season India Inc's Q1 results will start rolling in this week. IT bellwether TCS and Tata Elxsi will release their earnings on July 10, followed by DMart on July 11. Investors will watch closely for growth guidance, margin trends, and demand commentary, which will likely set the tone for sectoral momentum. 3. Monsoon Progress India's southwest monsoon has shown healthy progress, with cumulative June rainfall exceeding the long-period average by nearly 9%. Improved monsoon activity is aiding kharif crop sowing, which is up by 11% year-on-year. With the IMD forecasting active rainfall over the next week, monsoon trends will continue to be a crucial macroeconomic monitor for inflation and rural demand. 4. Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) Trends So far in July, FPIs have pulled out ₹5,773 crore from Indian equities amid uncertainty and valuation concerns. Experts suggest that clarity on the trade deal and robust Q1 earnings could reverse this trend. According to VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial, "A breakthrough in India-US trade talks and strong corporate earnings could revive FPI interest." 5. US Fed Minutes Global markets will keep a close watch on the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's June 17–18 meeting. These insights will offer clues on the Fed's stance regarding inflation and potential interest rate cuts. Though a September rate cut is still expected, recent jobs data hint at a resilient labor market, possibly delaying policy easing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated that the inflationary impact of tariffs may start appearing in the coming months, suggesting a cautious Fed in the near term.
Mint
34 minutes ago
- Mint
Govt says no legal requirement to block Reuters' X account in India, working to resolve issue
The official X (formerly Twitter) account of international news agency Reuters has been blocked in India, reportedly 'in response to a legal demand', as per notice displayed by the social media platform. However, a spokesperson for the government told PTI that there is no legal requirement made by it Centre to withhold the account, and it is working with X to resolve the issue. Reuters' X account is likely to be restored soon, the report added. 'There is no requirement from the Government of India to withhold Reuters and we are continuously working with X to resolve the problem,' the spokesperson told PTI. An email sent to Reuters seeking comments did not elicit a response, the report The report cited other sources, who said that the demand for blocking of Reuters' X account was made during Operation Sindoor in May. It was also among several hundreds other accounts listed for being blocked from access in India, but this wasn't done then, it added. The source added that Elon Musk-owned X seems to have now acted on that request and blocked Reuters' X handle in India. However, since the issue is not relevant at present, the government has asked X to explain the blocking and lift the embargo. 'An order was issued on May 7 (during Operation Sindoor) but it was not enforced. X seems to have enforced that order now which is a mistake on their part. Government has reached out to X for resolving it at the earliest,' an official source said. Affiliated X handles such as Reuters Tech News, Reuters Fact Check, Reuters Asia, and Reuters China are accessible in India. However, both official X accounts of the global news agency as well as Reuters World handles are inaccessible. X users attempting to access the main account can see a message that reads: 'Account withheld. @ Reuters has been withheld in IN in response to a legal demand.' On its help centre page, X explains such messages 'about country withheld content' means X was compelled to withhold the entire account specified or posts in response to a valid legal demand, such as a court order or local laws. (With inputs from PTI)
Mint
34 minutes ago
- Mint
India Inc sits on ₹5 trillion cash pile as firms hold back on capex amid uncertainty
Amid a patchy demand recovery and lingering global uncertainty, India Inc. continued to hoard cash in the last fiscal year, choosing financial buffers over fresh investments. Despite rising profits and healthy balance sheets, companies showed little urgency to deploy capital, preferring to return more to shareholders instead. A Mint analysis of cash holdings of 285 BSE-listed firms, excluding banking, financial services and insurance companies, showed a 12% year-on-year rise to ₹5.09 trillion in FY25. Yet, new project announcements fell 5% in the same period, following a 3% contraction in FY24, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy's (CMIE) project-tracking database. Companies are now sitting on cash and cash equivalents amounting to nearly 12% of their total assets. The rising number of firms with high cash ratios also points to subdued confidence in future business prospects. Between FY24 and FY25, more companies positioned themselves defensively, holding 25-50% of their assets in highly liquid form, the analysis showed. With no broad-based demand revival since the pandemic, there's little incentive to reinvest profits. Rather, in the absence of sustained revenue growth, many firms have relied on cost optimization and price hikes to maintain profitability. Still, flush with cash, many companies rewarded shareholders handsomely. A separate Mint analysis of 496 BSE 500 companies showed dividend payouts rose 11% on year in FY25 to ₹4.9 trillion—the highest in at least a decade, outpacing net profit growth of 9.5%. That suggests India Inc currently prefers sharing profits with investors over committing to long-term expansion. Recovery ahead? The big question now is when that investment impulse might return. Many experts believe a pickup in investments may hinge on global clarity—particularly a long-awaited US-India trade deal. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff pause ends on 9 July, and firms appear to be holding off until there's more certainty on that front. Asit Bhandarkar, senior equity fund manager at JM Financial Asset Management, notes that a lot of projects are in 'blue-print" mode and would be led by both organic and inorganic expansion plans. "The rising number of performing credit deals also indicate that money is being raised to improve existing capacities as well," he said. On a more optimistic note, Pankaj Pandey, head of retail research at ICICI Securities, expects a sharper rebound in corporate investments in FY26, especially after private capex outpaced government spending last year. He expects energy, utilities, metals, automobile and industrial goods sectors to lead the capex cycle this year. Adding to that, Raghav Narsalay, research lead and partner at PwC, pointed out that many firms now aspire to become global value chain leaders. 'So everyone wants to deploy cash wisely, even though money is getting cheaper to borrow." Alternate avenues Beyond dividends, some of India Inc.'s war chest may also be channelled into product innovation and service enhancements. In order to drive topline growth from here on they are gearing up to expand their customer outreach, said Narsalay. 'Companies are now looking to innovate products, reinvent their business models and overall offer better value propositions to lure back customers. They are more willing to experiment with technology rather than buy lands or machinery immediately," he added. Meanwhile, with fortified balance sheets and relatively low leverage, firms have ample room to borrow for acquisitions. Total debt level rose just 5% in FY25, following a slight contraction in FY24, the analysis showed. 'Since raw material prices are not at peak levels and there is not much stress in balance sheets, they can also borrow for inorganic expansions," noted Pandey from ICICI Securities. Strong cash flows and high profitability, coupled with cooling valuations and improved liquidity, have triggered a wave of consolidation in several industries. Cement, cables, paints and healthcare have seen a particular pickup in acquisition activity, said JM Financial's Bhandarkar.
