Inside the race to succeed Sadiq Khan
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Only a year has passed since Sadiq Khan won a record third term as Mayor of London. That victory – which plenty doubted – is one he can still relish ('it's looking good for Susan Hall' has become a familiar election meme). This week has seen Khan confirm plans to pedestrianise Oxford Street after a public consultation found what he called 'North Korean' levels of support. But what of his future?
When I last interviewed the mayor I was struck by his caution on the question of standing for a fourth term. 'Let's wait and see,' he said, abandoning any hint of braggadocio (Khan has often quipped that he intends to serve six terms). This remains City Hall's official line. 'Sadiq hasn't decided yet if he's standing again at the next mayoral election,' a spokesman told me. 'This is the same as the last election cycle when he didn't announce his decision until much later in the mayoral term.'
But friends of Khan tell me that he has privately indicated that he does not expect to stand for a fourth term. Some attribute this to the strain of being the most heavily guarded person in the country after the King and the Prime Minister. 'Hand on heart, had I known when I first began this journey what it involved for my family, I can't unequivocally say I would have done this,' Khan reflected last year.
And while there might not be a vacancy there is always a contest. Dawn Butler, a close friend of Khan's (the pair bonded as new MPs in 2005), has already announced her intention to stand when the mayor steps down. In Labour circles the other candidates typically discussed include Rosena Allin-Khan (who represents Khan's former seat of Tooting), Walthamstow MP Stella Creasy and Vauxhall and Camberwell MP Florence Eshalomi.
For the first time, this unspoken contest has now been polled. A survey by Survation for LabourList gave Allin-Khan a net favourability rating of +18 among London party members, with Cabinet Office minister Georgia Gould in second on +14 and Eshalomi in third on +13.
The poll, a former City Hall strategist suggests, proves that 'there's no appetite in London for some kind of celebrity candidacy' and that 'attempts to try to make that happen will fail'. James Corden, who has expressed interest in the mayoralty, languishes on -62 (Idris Elba, who joined Keir Starmer at a knife crime summit last year, is on a more credible +6).
Perhaps the clearest trend is a preference for relative newcomers. Creasy, who entered parliament in 2010 and stood for the deputy leadership in 2015, is on -7 and Butler is on -3.
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Allin-Khan's status reflects an enduring base in the party (she finished second to Angela Rayner in the last deputy leadership contest). Though not from Labour's left, as some have suggested, she has nurtured a reputation for independent-mindedness – typically a premium in London contests.
'Having a candidate that can credibly distance themselves from the government when necessary is absolutely critical,' a former Khan aide told me. 'That's how Boris [Johnson] survived in 2012 and Ken [Livingstone] won in 2004.' After a sometimes fraught relationship with Starmer's office, Allin-Khan resigned as shadow mental health minister in 2023, stating that the leader did 'not see a space for a mental health portfolio in a Labour cabinet'.
'Rosena is focused on delivering for the residents of Tooting as well as continuing to work shifts as an A&E doctor,' a spokesperson told me when I asked about Allin-Khan's intentions. 'We have a fantastic Labour Mayor of London in Sadiq who is delivering for London. Rosena is 100 per cent behind Sadiq in his role and the work he's doing including tackling violent crime, building affordable homes and free school meals.' (A loyal response that rules nothing out.)
A potential candidate who many in Labour believe would be more amenable to No 10 is Eshalomi. The former London Assembly member was previously a councillor in Lambeth, crossing over with Morgan McSweeney who served as chief of staff to borough leader Steve Reed (now Environment Secretary), and endorsed Liz Kendall in the 2015 Labour leadership election. As chair of the Housing, Communities and Local Government committee, Eshalomi is free to speak out on a defining London brief.
Gould, the MP for Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has similarly deep roots in the capital: she served as leader of Camden council from 2017-24, where she pioneered 'mission-led government', and chaired the London Councils association. That both her and Eshalomi enjoy organic support – neither has publicly expressed interest in the mayoralty – shows their potential.
Should Khan stand down as anticipated, Labour's next candidate will face a new challenge: incumbency. The party's support in London has fallen by 13 points since the last election (to 30 per cent) and Khan, a long-standing Starmer ally, offered unusually blunt criticism of the government after the Spending Review accepted none of his major transport demands (such as Docklands Light Railway and Bakerloo line extensions). 'I think she has made a colossal mistake in pitting London against the rest of the country,' Khan declared of Rachel Reeves.
The mayor has privately warned that Labour could one day lose London just as it lost the 'Red Wall' and Scotland – former fiefdoms where voters came to feel taken for granted. Recalling how the Liberal Democrats made gains against New Labour in urban centres in 2005, some fear the potential of an 'eco-populist' Green Party. Should Khan depart undefeated in 2028, his task in the years ahead will be to provide his successor with a legacy they can champion.
[See also: Labour is heading for war over welfare cuts]
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