Bond Bull Steven Major Ousted as HSBC Slashes Jobs
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13 hours ago
- Yahoo
HSBC Raises Booking (BKNG) Price Target, Maintains Buy Rating
Booking Holding Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is one of the most profitable consumer stocks to buy now. HSBC boosted its price target on Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) to $7,069 from $6,120, reaffirming a Buy rating as the firm grows more confident in the travel giant's ability to capitalize on sustained global demand. The new target implies an upside of about 24% from the current share price of $5,703.90. A fast-paced travel agent making a bookings for a family vacation package. The revision comes as Booking continues to benefit from strong international travel trends, particularly in Europe and Asia, where booking volumes and average daily rates have held firm. HSBC noted that the company's mix of direct traffic, mobile penetration, and loyalty adoption positions it well to protect margins and drive repeat business. Analysts also pointed to improving air travel trends and solid summer booking curves as supporting factors heading into the back half of the year. While currency fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties remain background risks, Booking's scale and diversified platform have helped it weather volatility better than many peers. Investors will be looking closely at Booking's upcoming results for updates on traveler behavior, cancellation trends, and regional performance. HSBC's revised target suggests continued faith in the company's execution as it navigates a complex but growing global travel landscape. While we acknowledge the potential of BKNG as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: Top 10 Healthcare AI Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds and 10 Best Industrial Automation Stocks to Buy for the Next Decade Disclosure: None.
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16 hours ago
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Stocks are at records. Investors should keep an eye on 5 things that could break the rally.
The steep rally in stocks faces big risks through the rest of the year, HSBC said. In a note, the bank highlighted five warning signs for investors to watch out for. Strategists said one risk factor, investor sentiment, was already flashing a "strong sell signal." The stock market is on a record-breaking rally, but investors are approaching some big hurdles they'll have to clear through the rest of this year if they want the gains to keep coming. Strategists at HSBC Global said on Monday that they see a handful of key risks facing stock prices through the second half of 2025. The risk factors could jeopardize the market's post-Liberation Day rally, the strategists wrote, adding that "there's an expiration date to our bullish stance — the question is where we could be wrong and therefore what we will have to look out for in terms of downside risks." Here are five things the bank says investors should monitor. 1. The market returns to the "Danger Zone" The "Danger Zone" is when US Treasury yields rise past a certain threshold that's painful for stocks. Higher yields globally also jeopardize the carry trade in markets, which is where investors borrow cheaper currency and covert it to dollars to invest in US assets. Turmoil related to the carry trade has most recently been seen amid rising yields in Japan, which sparked an unwind of the yen carry trade and a subsequent sell-off in global markets. The Danger Zone could be reached in two ways, strategists said: Fewer rate cuts. The economy's resilience could cause investors to push out their expectations for Fed rate cuts, driving up yields on the short end. Traders have already pushed out their rate expectations from the start of the year, and are now pricing in around 4-5 rate cuts through the end of 2026, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Inflation from tariffs. Consumer have begun to tick slightly higher in the lastest CPI readings. The June consumer price index report showed that prices for durables grew 0.7% year-over-year in June, the second-straight month of growth after more than two years of annualized declines. The headline number also drifted higher, hitting 2.7%, from 2.4% in May. Hotter inflation gives the Fed less room to cut interest rates, which would also drive yields higher. "This would put us right back into the Danger Zone in UST yields," strategists wrote of a more hawkish rate cut path. "Apart from the USD, we think the only places to hide out would be asset classes such as short-dated credit, value vs growth in equities or gold." 2. Investor sentiment sours HSBC's gauge for short-term investor sentiment and position is now sending a "strong sell signal," with 20%-30% of inputs within the gauge telling investors to sell, strategists said. "We don't think this is the time to pull the plug on risk assets just yet," the bank wrote, pointing to possible positive earnings surprises for companies reporting second-quarter results. "But clearly sentiment and positions are no longer as supportive a factor as it has been in the last three months." 3. The job market weakens A softer labor market is one of the biggest downside risks to economic growth in the second half, strategists said. The job market remains on strong footing overall. The US added 147,000 payrolls in June, more than economists expected, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked lower to 4.1%, remaining near historic lows. But jobless claims could rise higher through late-July, the bank predicted, pointing to factors like the school holiday, several auto factories being shut down, the hurricane season, and "typical seasonal patterns" in the job market. They added that firms could also become more concerned about the impact of tariffs and slow down hiring in the second half. "A marked softening of the labour market could spark expectations for more aggressive rate cuts from the Fed over concerns to its mandate of maximum employment. From a market perspective, a classic risk-off backdrop would dominate, strategists wrote. 4. Markets sour on AI Much of the rally in US stocks this year has been driven by mega-cap tech and semiconductor stocks, which are seen to be the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF, for instance, has soared 41% from its post-Liberation Day low on April 8. But investors have been growing more concerned with whether companies will be able to keep up the heavy AI spend, HSBC said. Strategists pointed to comments from Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr earlier this year, who suggested that the hype over artificial intelligence could be "overblown." It's also possible that tariffs on semiconductors could be renewed this year, which would hurt the AI trade, they added. "This adds to the growing sense that the tech-led rally may start to lose steam, which is a risk to our positive H2 view." 5. Trump keeps meddling with the Fed Trump has approached the idea of firing Fed Chair Powell a few times this year. If the president follows through — or if Powell were to unexpectedly resign from his post — that could spark another Liberation Day-style sell-off in the market, the strategists said. The market could also see a negative, but more mild reaction if Trump were to announce a shadow Fed Chair, a new Fed Chair named months in advance to suggest where monetary policy might be headed after Powell's term ends next year, strategists speculated. "We would view any unexpected changes at the Fed as initially US asset negative across the board, much in the fashion of how markets reacted in April," the bank wrote. "Markets would likely view this as a challenge to the institutional framework of the United States, likely prompting USD weakness, steeper US Treasury curves, and an initial drawdown in US equities." Markets were jolted last week after several reports claimed that Trump was getting ready to oust Powell from the Fed soon. Trump appeared to refute the reports, saying it was "highly unlikely" he would fire Powell when speaking at the White House last week. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
16 hours ago
- Yahoo
Warning Lights Flash as Sell Signals Grow
Investors are growing wary as HSBC's sentiment gauges shift into sell territory, hinting at a possible market pullback later this year. You might've felt the post?Liberation Day rally lacked real conviction. Even though stocks and high?yield credit climbed, long?only funds quietly trimmed the same time CTA programs pulled back on equities and bond positions, while nudging up bets on the US dollar. Yet equity momentum remains stretched to the upside. When everyone's leaning in one direction, sentiment signals often flip before prices do. Add looming August tariff deadlines and margin worries in Q2 results, and you've got the ingredients for a summer wobble. We could still inch higher as tariff concerns fade, but any fresh trade barriers or extreme positioning could spark a sharp, short?term dip. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio
