Operation Spider Web hands Ukraine ‘cards' to play with at negotiation table

First Post

05-06-2025

With Operation Spider Web, Ukraine has played its cards and acquired a seat at the negotiating table with a position of relative strength. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also punctured the myth of Russian invincibility and called out Vladimir Putin's bluff of imminent victory and nuclear rhetoric. read more
Months after US President Donald Trump berated him at the White House for not having any cards, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy played his cards on Sunday.
In an audacious attack with no precedent in the world, Ukraine struck five airbases and possibly a submarine base as well across the length and breadth of Russia — including in the far-off Siberia. With 117 drones, Ukraine destroyed nearly a third of Russia's long-range, nuclear-capable bombers and airborne early warning and command (AEWAC) fleets.
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With Operation Spider Web, Ukraine reminded the world that the war is far from being decided and Ukraine is far from being defeated. In the David versus Goliath face-off, Ukraine has shown it has mastered asymmetric warfare and has the ability to impose costs despite its adversary having superiority in every domain.
Even though Trump has for months parroted Russian talking points that Ukraine is on the brink of defeat, the situation on the ground is a stalemate at best and, at worst, costs far outweigh the benefits for Russia.
Neither side currently holds a decisive upper hand in the battlefield and Russia's incremental gains and Ukraine's resilient defence signal not victory, but a prolonged stalemate, says Shreya Sinha, a European affairs scholar at Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF).
Facts in face: Russia has gained just 1 per cent of Ukrainian territory since January 2024.
Zelenskyy destroys Russian invincibility — and asserts Ukraine's resilience
For months, visuals of Ukrainian neighbourhoods in Russian airstrikes and the sting of betrayal as the principal ally, the United States, appeared to switch allegiance to the adversary, had dominated the news cycle. But that was until Sunday.
Since Sunday, have dominated the news cycle as well as deliberations of strategists across the world as Ukraine ushered the world into a new age of modern warfare with the attack.
Suddenly, Russia is no longer as invincible as Vladimir Putin had been portraying and not as victorious as Trump had been saying.
'Ukraine's drone strikes have communicated the nation's resilience and innovation, challenging assumptions about asymmetry in capability. In a non-kinetic warfare paradigm, Ukraine has not only held ground but also reinvented itself as a formidable actor in drone-based hybrid warfare, shaping perceptions globally,' says Sinha, an Associate Fellow of European studies at the Delhi-based think tank VIF.
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The Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airbases and the destruction of several nuclear-capable intercontinental bombers is among the most audacious covert ops in military history. Some of the images, shown here, reveals the damage. Ukraine claims 40 aircraft destroyed.… pic.twitter.com/9w6IwEybq7 — Vishnu Som (@VishnuNDTV) June 4, 2025
To be sure, Russia was never close to an overwhelming victory despite what the propagandists said as every gain came at a very high cost.
Consider these facts: Russia has lost its Black Sea fleet to the extent that it is essentially inoperable and has also lost a third of its long-range bomber aircraft and nearly half of its AWAC fleet. It has suffered around 1 million troop casualties . Ukraine has also assassinated some top generals.
Despite outnumbering and outgunning Ukraine, Russia has suffered disproportionately higher losses and it needs to be asked whether such losses are worth the gains, says Swasti Rao, a scholar of geopolitics at Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA).
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Rao pointed out that even though Russia controls a fifth of Ukrainian territory, a large chunk of it was captured with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent insurgency in eastern Ukraine before 2022.
As per the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia currently controls around 19 per cent of Ukrainian territory — around 4-5 per cent was captured with the annexation of Crimea in 2014, around 2-3 per cent was captured by pro-Russia insurgents in eastern Ukraine during 2014-22, and Russia has captured just 12 per cent in the full-scale war since 2022.
Rao says that the way Ukraine dealt a blow worth $7-8 billion to Russia with drones worth just a few million dollars at most tells the entire cost versus benefit story of the war.
More than weapons, Ukraine lacks soldiers, but, with innovation in drone warfare, Ukraine has compensated its low numbers to a great extent, says Rao, an associate professor at JISA and a non-resident fellow at Eastern Circles think tank.
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'The situation now is that the war is costing Russia much more than it's costing Ukraine in all domains — equipment, money, and reputation. As a result of the war, Russia has become dependent on China for the sustenance of its war and economy. For a superpower to become a junior partner of a rising power is a major loss of reputation,' says Rao
Ukraine seeks strength at negotiation table
With the drone attack, Zelenskyy has aimed for many birds with one stone.
Besides securing a tactical edge with the attacks and reminding the world that the war is nowhere near its conclusion and that Ukraine does hold cards, Zelenskyy's biggest accomplishment is, in the words of Rao, the confirmation of a seat at the negotiating table.
'Ukraine sought, and successfully acquired, a relative position of strength in ongoing negotiations with these strikes. The final outcome of the war is unlikely to change in the sense that Ukraine is unlikely to get Russia-occupied territories back, but such military successes strengthens its hands in talks and securing better terms, such as increased say in talks and perhaps negotiating security guarantees,' says Rao.
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Such a situation is a far cry from the situation just a few months back when Trump had said that Ukraine having a seat at the table in decisions about the end of the war was not a must.
While Russia has acquired a position of relative strength, Russia has lost some leverage and Ukraine has called out Putin's bluff to a great extent.
Rao tells Firstpost, 'Despite such a large military and famed intelligence apparatus, Ukraine has called out Russia's bluff again and again. Ukraine has assassinated Russian generals at the time and place of its choosing. Ukraine has sunk prized Russian ships. Now, Ukraine has destroyed some of the most valued Russian Air Force planes. As Russia has lost a face in all domains, ranging from border security and foreign intelligence to domestic security and base security, its leverage in talks has also been affected.'
While Putin has vowed to retaliate and maintained his stand in his latest telephonic conversation with US President Donald Trump, if Ukraine manages to hold onto advantages gained through the recent drone attacks, it can secure a deal that addresses its concerns better, suggests Rao.
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For Ukraine, full-scale concessions are simply not on the table anymore and Ukraine is set to push for its terms more forcefully, says Sinha of VIF.
'It's now certain that Ukraine will not sign a deal that legitimises recent Russian gains, such as in Novopil in Donetsk, Vodolahy in Sumy, or Bilohorivka in Luhansk. These are not just pieces of land, but they are proof that this war is still very much ongoing, to which Ukraine has given its all. Any future peace deal would likely hinge on international security guarantees and a long-term roadmap to reconstruction and political stability,' says Sinha.
As for the immediate future, even though Putin's supporters have called for a nuclear attack on Ukraine and some have suggested that Putin could launch a new offensive with unprecedented fury, neither is likely — even as Putin has vowed retaliation.
For many weeks, Russia has been launching hundreds of drones and missiles on a near-daily basis, so the increase of scale would not mean much for Ukraine. As for the nuclear attack, there is consensus that it is a red line that the international community, including China, would allow Putin to cross.
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At multiple points in the war, China, the principal ally of Russia, and India, which has functioned as a backchannel on occasions, made it clear to Putin that nuclear weapons were off the table come what may.
As for a ground offensive, Russia may not be in a position to launch it anytime soon without a fresh mobilisation of its troops as it faces resource crunch for such a massive offensive in Ukraine, says Kseniya Kirillova, a Russia analyst at Washington DC-based think tank Jamestown Foundation.
More than Ukraine's attacks, the question of a new offensive would be decided by internal stability in Russia, says Kirillova.
'It appears that Putin is reluctant to declare such a mobilisation and is instead interested in a temporary pause. New aggression could emerge if the war in Ukraine stalls and Putin concludes that propaganda alone is no longer sufficient to maintain regime stability. However, if Europe demonstrates a credible readiness to defend itself, this would serve as an effective deterrent. It is important to remember that it is weakness, not strength, that provokes Putin,' says Kirillova